Hurricane Paloma Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on May 9, 2009

Track forecasts for Paloma had a mean error that was well below the long-term mean and CLIPER. On the surface, these numbers seem like the forecasts were skillful. However, this was due to the unexpected dissipation of Paloma. Forecasts indicated an acceleration into the open Atlantic. Instead, the trough sheared Paloma and left the center behind. Had Paloma not have dissipated, the mean error would have been significantly larger.

Intensity forecasts were very poor. Neither the rapid intensification into a category 4 hurricane or the rapid weakening prior to Cuban landfall were expected. This highlights the difficulties in forecasting intensity when a tropical cyclone is interacting with a trough.

Statements indicating that hurricane conditions were possible or expected were inserted at the appropriate times.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Figure 1: Mean track (top) and intensity (bottom) forecast errors for Hurricane Paloma. Blue denotes NWHHC, red the long-term mean, and black the best track.

Table when tropical storm/hurricane condition statements included in updates

11/6 2100 UTC: Hurricane conditions possible: Cayman Islands
11/7 0300 UTC: HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED: Grand Cayman Island
11/7 0900 UTC: HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED: Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
11/7 1500 UTC: Hurricane conditions possible: South coast of Cuba between 80-77W
11/7 2100 UTC: Hurricane conditions possible: All of Cuba between 80-77W
11/8 0300 UTC: HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED: All of Cuba between 79-77W
11/8 0600 UTC: Hurricane conditions no longer expected: Grand Cayman
11/8 1200 UTC: HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED: All of Cuba east of 77W
11/8 1800 UTC: Hurricane conditions no longer expected: Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
11/9 0300 UTC: Hurricane conditions no longer possible: Cuba from 80-79W
11/9 0900 UTC: Hurricane conditions no longer expected: Entire south coast of Cuba and north coast from 79-78W
11/9 1500 UTC: Hurricane conditions no longer expected/Tropical storm conditions expected: North coast of Cuba east of 78W
11/9 2100 UTC: Tropical storm conditions no longer expected: North coast of Cuba east of 78W

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error

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