Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on March 1, 2009

There was only one forecast issued on Marco due to its proximity to land and immediate landfall. The only verifying time in this forecast was at 12 hours. The 12 hour track error was below the long-term mean while the intensity was slightly above. The forecast indicated Marco would reach hurricane intensity prior to landfall, while this did not occur. The reasons for indicating a landfalling hurricane were its small size and its rapid intensification at the time.

A statement indicating Hurricane Conditions expected was inserted at 2100 UTC October 6 from Veracruz to Tuxpan, with Hurricane Conditions Possible from Tuxpan to Tampico. This was changed to Tropical Storm Conditions expected as landfall was occurring.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please visit the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics.

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