Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on March 14, 2009

Track forecast errors for Edouard were below both the long-term mean and CLIPER. This indicates that the track forecasts had skill. The main issues with the track forecasts were a southward bias while in the Gulf of Mexico. After genesis, a slightly south of due west track was forecast. Instead, Edouard tracked slightly north of due west.

Intensity forecast errors were near the long-term mean. One forecast did indicate Edouard reaching hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Instead, Edouard made landfall 10KT shy of hurricane intensity, at 55KT.

A statement indicating hurricane conditions were possible was inserted at 0000 UTC August 4. This was during the rapid intensification that immediately followed genesis. While this turned out not to be necessary, given that Edouard made landfall as a strong tropical storm, this statement can be justified.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Mean track/intensity forecast errors for Tropical Storm Edouard. Blue represents NWHHC forecasts, red CLIPER, and black National Hurricane Center 10-year mean error Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics.

Table of tropical storm/hurricane statements included in updates

8/4 0000 UTC: Hurricane Conditions Possible: Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Port Lavaca, Texas
8/4 1800 UTC: Tropical Storm Conditions Expected: Morgan City, Louisiana to Intracoastal City
8/4 2100 UTC: Hurricane Conditions Possible to Tropical Storm Conditions Expected: Intracoastal City to Cameron
8/5 0300 UTC: Tropical Storm Conditions Expected/Hurricane Conditions Possible: Cameron to Freeport, Texas
8/5 0300 UTC Hurricane Conditions no longer Possible: Freeport to Port Lavaca
9/5 0900 UTC: Tropical Storm or Hurricane Conditions no longer Expected or Possible: Galveston, Texas to Freeport
9/5 1500 UTC: Hurricane Conditions no longer Possible: All 9/5 1500 UTC: Tropical Storm Conditions no longer Expected: Cameron to Intracoastal City
9/15 2100 UTC: Tropical Storm Conditions no longer Expected: All

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