Hurricane Humberto Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on December 1, 2007

While there were only two forecasts issued on Humberto, the track forecasts for Humberto had errors well below the long-term average. The first forecast had a 36 hour forecast error of just 83NM, while the 24 hour mean error was under 60NM. The track forecasts also correctly indicated a landfall just to the east of Houston and Galveston.

In contrast, the intensity forecasts were very poor. The rapid intensification into a hurricane was not well anticipated. The first forecast issued indicated that landfall would occur with 35KT winds. This is partially due to a poor initial intensity of 25KT that was used. Post season best track analysis by the National Hurricane Center concluded that the winds were 35KT at this time. Even accounting for this discrepancy, the intensity forecast would have still been below the observed.

The unexpected intensification resulted in a very late recommendation of a Hurricane Warning. The Hurricane Warning was only recommended 2 hours before landfall. However, a Tropical Storm Warning was recommended 13 hours before landfall, and a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch as recommended 7 hours before landfall when Humberto became a strong tropical storm. The complete summary of recommended watches and warnings is included below.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast errors.

Table of Recommended Watches and Warnings

1800 UTC 9/12 Tropical Storm Warning: Matagorda, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana
0000 UTC 9/13 Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning: Freeport, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana
0000 UTC 9/13 Tropical Storm Warning: Cameron to Intracoastal City, Louisiana
0000 UTC 9/13 Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: Matagorda to Freeport
0300 UTC 9/13 Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning extended: East of Cameron to Intracoastal City
0500 UTC 9/13 Hurricane WARNING: Galveston to Texas/Louisiana Border
0500 UTC 9/13 Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: Galveston to Freeport
0925 UTC 9/13 Hurricane Warning Dropped: high Island, Texas to Galveston
1200 UTC 9/13 Hurricane Warning Dropped: All
1200 UTC 9/13 Tropical Storm Warning: Texas/Louisiana Border to Intracoastal City
1500 UTC 9/13 Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: All

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