Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on December 24, 2007

The track forecast errors for Tropical Storm Debby were slightly higher than the NHC 10-year average, except for the 96 hour period. There were two primary reasons for this. The first was due to some problems with the initial location. The first forecast had an initial error of more than 55NM. The second was that the track forecasts depicted a slightly slower than observed forward speed. However, the errors were well below those from the CLIPER and the track correctly depicted that Debby would never threaten land, except for the Cape Verde Islands.

The intensity forecast errors were well below the long-term mean. The forecasts corrected indicated that Debby would remain well-below hurricane intensity due to the wind shear and effects of the Saharan Air Layer.

There were no Tropical Storm Warnings recommended for the Cape Verde Islands since Debby moved by as a depression.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Mean track/intensity forecast errors for Tropical Storm Debby

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics.

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