Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Verification Written by Derek Ortt on January 20, 2006

There were only two forecasts issued on Tropical Storm Jose, with only one verifying 24 hour forecast. However, from the small sample available, Jose was well forecast. A motion to the west at the appropriate speed was indicated, with landfall only occurring slightly north of the forecast point. All forecasts were well below the long-term mean error.

Intensity forecasts were average. The rate of intensification to 50KT before landfall was not anticipated, again showing the limitations of being able to forecast rapid intensification.

A Tropical Storm Warning was recommended for the Mexican Coast from Veracruz to Tampico at 1630 UTC Aug 22 and was discontinued at 0900 UTC Aug 23. This provided about 12 hours of lead time, the desired lead time for a Tropical Storm Warning.

For synoptic history, as well as official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report.

Click Here for the individual forecasts error statistics.

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