Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on January 4, 2006

Tropical Storm Gert was a very short-lived storm; thus, there are few forecasts to verify. In general, the track forecasts were close to the CLIPER and NHC 10-year average at the 12 hour time period, and well below at 24 and 36 hours. The reason for the poorer performance at 12 hours was due to problems in finding the initial center. In fact, the mean initial position error was 27NM.

The intensity forecasts were well above average in terms of the error. The 36 hour mean error was just 2.5KT.

A Tropical Storm Warning was recommended from Martinez de la Torre and Aldana, Mexico at 0900 UTC, 7/24 until 0300 UTC 7/25.

For synoptic history, as well as the official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Gert.

Click here for the individual forecast errors.

Mean track and intensity errors for Tropical Storm Gert.

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