Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on July 4, 2006

Track forecasts for Franklin were very poor and lacked skill beyond 72 hours. The primary reason for this was that guidance was indicating an acceleration to the northeast. Instead, Franklin lingered in the subtropical western Atlantic and even moved back to the NNW, as the initial trough failed to pick up the storm. This led to very large forecast errors. In fact, the 120 hour forecast for forecast 4 had an error greater than 1200NM. Later forecasts failed to capture the eventual acceleration to the northeast.

Intensity forecasts at the 12, 24, 96, and 120 hour time periods were better than the long term mean, while the others were slightly worse. Franklin was forecast to become a hurricane, though atmospheric conditions became unfavorable for further development and did not permit this to occur.

A Tropical Storm Warning was recommended for part of the NW Bahamas at 0000 UTC, July 21 and was dropped at 2100 UTC that same day. Tropical Storm force winds remained east of the center; therefore, despite the center passing very near the islands, tropical storm conditions did not occur.

For synoptic history, as well as official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Franklin.

Mean track and intensity errors for Tropical Storm Franklin Click Here for individual track/intensity verification statistics.

Back to Verification Index