Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on July 4, 2006

Track forecast errors for Hurricane Epsilon were generally near the long-term mean and were much better than those from CLIPER. The sources of error were not anticipating the SW loop quick enough. Forecasts were too slow to reflect this.

Intensity forecasts were near the long-term mean, except at 120 hours. The reasons for the 120 hour forecast being relatively poor were two fold. The first was predicting weakening faster than what was observed, which is common in annular-like hurricane.s The second was maintaining this intensity for too long in the face of strong shear.

For synoptic history, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Epsilon.

Mean track and intensity forecast errors for Hurricane Epsilon

Click here for individual track/intensity verification statistics.

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