Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on June 20, 2006

Track forecasts for Tropical Storm Delta were much worse than the long-term mean; however, they were much better than those provided by CLIPER. The forecasts were difficult because the majority of the guidance indicated a turn to the NW after a few days, when Delta actually moved to the NE. Nearly all forecast models had track forecast errors well above the long-term mean.

Intensity forecasts were through the first 72 hours at or slightly above the long-term mean. Forecasts beyond 72 hours were significantly better than the long term mean. Delta remained over water until after its extra-tropical transition; which may have contributed to the low errors.

For synoptic history, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Delta.

Mean track and intensity forecast errors

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics.

Back to Verification Index