Tropical Storm Bret Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on February 7, 2005 There were only two forecasts issued for Tropical Storm Bret. The forecast errors, both in terms of track and intensity were well below the long-term mean forecast error. Landfall at roughly the correct time and location, and at the appropriate intensity was forecast.

A Tropical Storm Warning was recommended from Veracruz to Tampico at 2200 UTC, 6/28, 17 hours prior to the center crossing the coast. This is slightly more lead time that is desired for a minimal tropical storm. While the forecasts were very good, the landfall was forecast a couple of hours before the actual landfall. However, Tropical Storm conditions may have occurred in the southern part of the warning area before the actual landfall.

One note about the forecasts. There was only one public forecast issued. However, NWHHC had determined the system to be a depression based upon satellite and surface observations before an official upgrade. Therefore, an internal forecast was also issued and used in verification as well.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Bret.

Click Here for individual forecast error statistics

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