Hurricane Beta Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on June 6, 2006

Track forecasts for Hurricane Beta were excellent. The 72 hour mean error was under 80NM, well below the long-term mean and about 70 percent lower than the CLIPER model, indicative of forecasts having tremendous skill. However, there was a bias regarding the Beta forecasts. This was a tendency to bring the hurricane inland early. Initial forecasts had the hurricane making landfall about 12 hours before the actual landfall. Also, the dip to the SW after landfall was not anticipated.

Intensity forecasts were ordinary with errors around the long-term mean for the 12-48 hour time frame. The spike at 72 hours is due to forecasts incorrectly indicating landfall.

The warnings for the island of Provedencia need to be addressed. Initially, a Hurricane Warning was recommended. It then appears that hurricane force winds would not affect Provedencia as the storm appeared disorganized and was very near the island; thus, a few hours before the worst impacts, the Hurricane Warning was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. Beta unexpectedly intensified and category 1 winds were experienced; thus, the warning had to be changed back to a Hurricane Warning. This second Hurricane Warning was not recommended until AFTER hurricane conditions were being experienced, which provides no true warning. Warnings for Nicaragua that were recommended were appropriate.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Beta

Mean track/intensity forecast errors for Hurricane Beta Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics

Table of Recommended Watches and Warnings

10/27 1000 UTC Hurricane Watch: Caribbean Coast of Nicaragua
10/27 1500 UTC Hurricane WARNING: Columbian Islands of San Andreas and Provedencia
10/28 1800 UTC Hurricane Warning Dropped: San Andreas
10/28 2100 UTC Hurricane Watch Extended: From Nicaragua/Honduras Border to Limon, Honduras
10/28 2100 UTC Hurricane Warning to Tropical Storm Warning: Provedencia
10/28 2100 UTC Hurricane Watch Dropped: South of Bluefields, Nicaragua
10/29 0000 UTC Hurricane WARNING: Prinzapolka, Nicaragua to Limon
10/29 0900 UTC Hurricane WARNING: Provedencia
10/29 1800 UTC Hurricane Warning Dropped: Provedencia
10/30 0000 UTC Hurricane WARNING: Extended from Prinzapolka to Bluefields
10/30 0000 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Bluefields to Nicaragua/Costa Rica Border
10/30 1500 UTC All Warnings Dropped: South of Bluefields and North of Nicaragua/Honduras Border
10/30 2100 UTC Hurricane Warning Dropped: Nicaragua/Honduras Border to Bluefields

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