Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt, June 2, 2006

Track forecasts were generally poor for Arlene. The largest source of error was indicating a track that was significantly slower than the observed track. Arlene was expected to linger in the Caribbean longer than usual. Despite the errors, the forecasts still showed skill as errors from CLIPER were significantly larger than the track forecasts.

Intensity forecast errors were comparable to the long term averages. No intensity forecast took Arlene above minimal hurricane intensity, though initial forecasts kept Arlene too weak, due to the strong vertical shear that was present.

A tropical storm warning was recommended about 12 hours prior to tropical storm force winds impacting Cuba. Hurricane Watches and Warnings were recommended for the northern Gulf Coast as Arlene was forecast to make landfall as a minimal hurricane. However, these did not verify as Arlene weakened slightly before landfall and were replaced with a tropical storm warning 1 hour prior to landfall.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Arlene.

Track and Intensity errors for Tropical Storm Arlene

Click Here for individual track/intensity forecast error statistics

Table of Recommended Watches and Warnings

6/9 1500 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Isle of Youth, Cuba
6/9 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: All of Cuba west of Havana
6/10 0300 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Dry Tortugas
6/10 1200 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: Cuba
6/10 1500 UTC Hurricane Watch: Morgan City, LA to Panama City, Florida
6/10 2100 UTC HurricaneWARNING: Mobile, Alabama to Panama City, Florida
6/10 2100 UTC Hurricane Watch Dropped: West of Grand Isle
6/11 0300 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: Dry Tortugas
6/11 0300 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Panama City to Cedar Key, FL
6/11 0300 UTC Hurricane Watch Dropped: Mississippi/Louisiana Border to Grand Isle
6/11 1800 UTC Hurricane Warning and Watch Dropped: All
6/11 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Mobile to Panama City
6/11 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: East of St Marks
6/12 0000 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: Mobile to St Marks

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