Tropical Storm Matthew Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on April 3, 2004

In general, track forecasts for Tropical Storm Matthew had average to slightly below average forecast errors. The exception to this was the only verifying 48 hour forecast. The primary reason for this large error was due to the track forecast forecasting that the center would reform farther to the northeast, under the deep convection. This scenario did not pan out. Instead, the convection kept being sheared well away from the center and dissipated.

Intensity forecasts were also average to below average. The slight intensification due to quasi-geostrophic mechanisms was correctly anticipated. However, the forecasts did have a bias to the upside. The first two landfall forecasts indicated a 50KT landfall.

NWHHC recommended a Tropical Storm Warning for the affected region about 17 hours prior to landfall. This is longer than the 9-12 hour lead time that NWHHC typically provides. The reason for this was because of the fact that the effects of Matthew extended well away from the center; thus, the additional lead time was necessary.

For synoptic history, and official watches and warnings, visit the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report

Click Here for the Tropical Storm Matthew Verification Data

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