Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on Feb 21, 2005

There were only three verifying forecasts for Tropical Storm Hermine, too few to make any meaningful verification. However, based upon the data that is available, the track forecast errors were well above the 10-year average. The main reason for this was not anticipating that the center would become exposed and race into southern New England. In addition, forecast number one has problems locating the center of circulation; thus, there was a very large initial position error.

NWHHC recommended a tropical storm warning for extreme eastern MA about 10 hours prior to the storm making landfall, which is adequate lead time for a landfalling 35KT tropical storm. The recommended warning region was in the appropriate region.

For synoptic history, as well as the official watches and warnings, please read the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Hermine.

Click Here for the Tropical Storm Hermine Verification Data

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