Hurricane Gaston Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on February 20, 2005

In general, track forecasts for Hurricane Gaston were very good. Verification statistics for the 0-72 hour time periods are well below the long term average error, as well as the CLIPER forecasts. There was only one verifying 96 hour forecast; therefore, the fact that this was above the long-term mean is not very meaningful and was due to missing the acceleration to the NE.

Intensity forecast errors were larger than normal for the earlier time periods due to the track forecasts having the center remaining just offshore for about 12 additional hours, instead of coming inland. Intensity forecasts did anticipate a landfalling hurricane.

NWHHC did recommend a Hurricane Watch about 23 hours prior to landfall and a Hurricane Warning about 17 hours prior to landfall. These are similar lead times as were provided for Hurricane Alex and are less than desired. The reason was that the track forecasts did not have the storm making landfall until 12 hours after the observed landfall time.

For synoptic history, as well as the official watches and warnings, please see the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Gaston

CLIPER had 3 verifying 96 hour forecasts

Track Forecast for Hurricane Gaston from 0000 UTC, Aug 28, 2004

Click Here for the forecast error statistics.

Table of Recommended Watches and Warnings

8/28 1500 UTC Hurricane Watch: Charleston, SC to Cape Hatteras, NC
8/28 2100 UTC Hurricane WARNING: Charleston to Myrtle Beach, SC
8/28 2100 UTC Hurricane Watch: Charleston to SC/Georgia Border
8/29 0900 UTC Hurricane WARNING Charleston to SC/NC Border
8/29 1100 UTC Hurricane Watch Dropped: South of Hilton Head Island, SC
8/29 1300 UTC Hurricane Watch Dropped: All 8/29 1300 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: SC/NC Border to Surf City, North Carolina
8/29 1500 UTC Hurricane Warning Dropped: All
8/29 1500 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Charleston to Surf City
8/29 1800 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: All
8/31 0300 UTC Tropical Storm Warning: Mouth of Chesapeake Bay to Atlantic City, NJ
8/31 1000 UTC Tropical Storm Warning Dropped: All

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