Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Verification
Written by Derek Ortt on March 26, 2004

There were very few forecasts that could be verified for Tropical Storm Earl, due to its short duration. Those that could be verified had slightly below average track errors for the forecasts through 24 hours, while the one 36-hour forecast was well above average. The greatest forecasting problem was the forward speed.

The intensity forecasts that were verified had at or below average errors. However, this was misleading. The dissipation was not anticipated, in fact, forecasts #3 and #4 indicated that Earl would make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a category three hurricane. The reason for the dissipation appears to have been unexpected strong low-level easterly winds, that produced wind shear over the storm.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Windward Islands was recommended about 12 hours prior to the arrival of Earl, the desired lead time.

For synoptic history, as well as the official watches and warnings, please read the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Earl

Click Here for the Tropical Storm Earl verification data.

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