0300 UTC 12/11/2007 SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

No forecast graphics due to the 2007 Fall AGU meeting. Service may be somewhat sporadic as well, especially on 12/12. Due to transit back to Miami from San Francisco.

Olga has been moving to the west during the past 24 hours. Most guidance indicates a track a little south of due west due to the building ridge to the north. This ridge is building based upon the latest WV imagery and this track brings Olga over Hispaniola. It could dissipate over the mountains, but since this is the first forecast, the vortex will be retained until reaching central America in 5 days. Some slowing is expected after clearing Hispaniola as it reaches the western extent of the ridge.

Olga is somewhere between a classic subtropical storm and a tropical storm. For now, I will go with the subtropical classification since only the northern semi-circle appears to be fully tropical. Models are only showing slight intensification of the vortex and that is the forecast. For now, no re-intensification is indicated after Hispaniola.

The greatest threat is life threatening flooding and mudslides on Hispaniola. This same areas was devastated just 6 weeks earlier, increasing the flood threat and updates will highlight this concern.

Since Olga is being called a subtropical storm, gale and not tropical storm warnings will be recommended for the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Initial: 18.4N 64.5W 35KT
12 Hour: 18.4N 68.0W 40KT
24 Hour: 18.0N 71.0W 30KT(inland)
36 Hour: 17.6N 74.0W 25KT (Caribbean)
48 Hour: 17.4N 77.0W 25KT
72 Hour: 17.4N 82.0W 25KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 17.4N 86.0W 25KT
120 Hour: 17.6N 89.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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