2100 UTC 8/18/2008 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST #10

For official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center (RSMC-Miami) at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov, or local emergency management officials.

According to radar estimates, the center of Tropical Storm Fay is 19 miles north of Key West. Fay is moving slightly west of due north. The track has shifted east a little and brings Fay inland tonight or tomorrow morning west of the Naples area. It is worth mentioning that some global models suggests an alternate scenario after 2 days ahead with Fay stalling off the Atlantic coast of northern Florida then moving it back into Florida. This forecasts is closer to the higher resolution models which expect the TC to continue moving north until dissipation.

Fay's intensity forecast remains a challenge. Recent trends suggest intensification to a hurricane before landfall. However, there is still some shear by an upper low to Fay's southwest and beginning westerly shear from a midlatitude trough.Currently, convection is firing up on the western side of the storm which had been the very weak side. This supports strengthening and the storm seems to become more symmetric.