8 P.M. PDT 6/25/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3-E UPDATE #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression 1-E is currently moving parallel to the coast of Mexico. Outer bands are currently bringing heavy rainfall. Up to 5 inches are possible, bringing the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to the mountainous parts of SW Mexico. Residents of the west coast of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

No warnings are being recommended by NWHHC at this time. However, please use the official alerts link on the homepage for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 3-E is located near 14.6N and 97.8W. This places the center about 300 miles SE of Acapulco. The motion is to the west near 14 m.p.h. A west to WNW track at a slower speed is expected over the next few days, taking the system parallel to the west coast of Mexico, but not bringing the center onshore.

Maximum winds are near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1007mb. Continued intensification is expected over the next few days and this depression is expected to become a hurricane in about 2 days.

Next Update: 3 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

4 A.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3-E UPDATE #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

The outer bands of Tropical Depression 3-E continue to bring heavy rainfall to coastal southern Mexico. Up to 5 inches of additional rainfall are expected as the cyclone moves parallel to the coast. Landfall is not currently expected; however, any deviation to the north would bring the center onshore.

There are no current warnings being recommended by NWHHC. However, please use the official alerts link on the homepage for the official tropical storm warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 3-E is located near 14.8N and 98.5W. This places the center about 170 miles SSE of Acapulco, Mexico. The previous distance was an error. The motion is to the west near 8 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the center offshore.

Maximum winds remain near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1007mb. Further intensification is expected as the depression moves parallel to the coats of Mexico and hurricane intensity is expected within the next 48 hours.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3-E UPDATE #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Track forecast shifts to north. Center now expected to pass very close to the Mexican Coast. The outer bands of Tropical Depression 3-E continue to bring rain and gusty winds to the coast of Mexico. Up to 5 inches of rainfall is possible, bringing the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to areas southeast of Acapulco. Residents of the west coast of Mexico need to continue to monitor the progress of this system

NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to Zihuatenejo, Mexico. Please use the official alerts link on the homepage for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 3-E is located near 14.5N and 98.3W. This places the center about 150 miles SSE of Acapulco. There is little current motion at this time, though a slow WNW to NW track is expected over the next couple of days, bringing the center very close to the coast. Any deviation to the north will result in landfall

Maximum winds remain near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1005mb. This depression is very close to tropical storm intensity and is expected to become a storm later today and a hurricane in about 48 hours.

Next Update: 11 A.M. PDT

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Carlos is intensifying more than forecast and is located more to the northeast than previously thought. Threat to the Mexican Coast increases. Greatest threat remains heavy rain. Up to 5-10 inches of rain is expected, bringing flash flooding and mudslides. All residents of the west coast of Mexico need to closely monitor the progress of this system.

NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning (level 1 alert) from Huatalco to Acapulco and a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch (level 2 alert) from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo. Please see the alerts page for descriptions of these particular alerts and the official watches and warnings link on the homepage for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 14.9N and 97.6W. This places the center about 150 miles SE of Acapulco and about 80 miles SW of Huitalco. The jump in the position is not a motion, but a center relocation. There is little motion at this time, though a slow WNW to NW track is still expected over the next few days, though possibly closer to the coast than previously forecast.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 45 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1001mb. This storm is beginning to intensify at a faster rate and has the potential to become a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #5

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos is exploding into a powerful system. Should become a hurricane soon. Threats include up to 10 inches of rain, tidal flooding up to 5 feet, as well as damaging hurricane force winds if the center makes landfall. Storm preparations need to be rushed to completion as soon as possible. Conditions are already bad where the rain bands are reaching the coast to the SE of Acapulco. All residents of the west coast of Mexico need to continue to monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING (level 5 alert) from La Pastoria to Acapulco, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning (level 4 alert) continues to be recommended from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo, Mexico, with a Tropcial Storm Warning (level 1 alert) being recommended from La Pastoria to Huatalco, Mexico. Please see the alerts page for descriptions of these levels of alert and the official watches and warnings link for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the eye of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 15.1N and 97.6W. This position is about 150 miles SE of Acapulco. Carlos has been drifting to the north recently; however, a WNW to NW track is expected during the next few days. The eye is expected to pass very close to the Acapulco region in about 36 hours.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 70 m.p.h. based upon the eye being visible on visible satellite imagery. The pressure is estimated to be 995mb. Conditions favor further intensification and Carlos should become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours and has the potential to become a very powerful hurricane within the next couple of days.

Next Update: 5 P.M. PDT

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #6

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos continues to drift closer to the Mexican Coast. Location is less than 50 miles from Punta Angel. Heavy rainfall continues to affect the coast. Up to 10 inches of additional rain is expected, bringing life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. In addition, surge height sup to 5 feet are expected along with winds to hurricane force.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING (level 5 alert) from La Pastoria to Acapulco, Mexico. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning (level 4 alert) from Acapulco to Zihuatenejo, Mexico. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch (level 3 alert) from Zihuatenejo to Tomatlan, Mexico. NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning from La Pastoria to Huatalco, Mexico. Please see the alerts page for descriptions of these alerts and the official watches and warnings link on the home page for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 15.2N and 97.7W. This places the center about 50 miles south of Punta Angel, Mexico. The current motion is a northerly drift, but a turn to the NW or WNW is expected soon. However, if this turn does not occur within the next few hours, Carlos will make landfall near Punta Angel instead of near Acapulco as currently forecast.

Maximum winds remain near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 995mb. Carlos appears on the verge of becoming a hurricane and could become a hurricane at any time. If the center remains over water as long as forecast, the system has the potential to become a very powerful hurricane. If it moves inland overnight, it should not become anything more than a minimal hurricane.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

7 P.M. PDT 6/26/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #7

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos is very near the coast, bringing very heavy rain and strong gusty winds to the Mexican. Coast. Landfall may occur in a mere few hours if the system does not turn to the west soon. Greatest threats will be flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides. Up to 10 inches of additional rain is expected. In addition, tidal flooding up to 5 feet above normal and wind gusts to hurricane force are possible near where the center makes landfall, if it does.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 15.5N and 97.7W. This places the center about 30 miles to the south of Punta Angel, Mexico. The motion is to the NNW near 5 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is still expected; however, it does not appear likely that the turn will occur soon enough to avoid a landfall.

Maximum winds remain near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be near 996mb. Because landfall appears likely to occur, Carlos will be significantly weaker than forecast at 2 P.M. There is the chance at slight additional intensification before landfall.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 A.M. PDT 6/27/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #8

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos has made landfall near Punta Escondido. Since it has made landfall, the system should begin to weaken. However, up to 10 inches of additional rainfall can be expected along the path of the system. This may trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible.

NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning (level 1 alert) from Punta Escondido to Tomatlan, with all other recommended watches and warnings being dropped. Please use the link on the homepage for the official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 16.4N and 97.9. This places the center about 45 miles NW of Punta Escondido, Mexico. The motion is to the NNW near 7 m.p.h. A NW motion should continue, keeping the center inland during the next day or so.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 60 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Continued weakening is likely over the mountains and Carlos should weaken to a depression within the next 24 hours. Note: No forecast discussion issued since system is inland.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. PDT 6/27/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS UPDATE #9 CORRECTED

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos is weakening over coastal areas of Mexico. However, the heavy rainfall continues. Up to an additional 5 inches of rain is expected, creating the threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Escondido to Acapulco. The warning is no longer recommended west of Acapulco. Please refer to the official watches and warnings link on the home page, or local emergency management for official watches and warnings.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Carlos is located near 16.6N and 98.0W. This places the center inland by a few miles. the motion is WNW near 5 m.p.h. This track should continue, keeping the center inland. However, if the system reverts to a more westerly track, the center would emerge back over the water.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 40 m.p.h., mainly over the water. The pressure is estimated to be 1002mb. If Carlos does not move back over the water soon, disisipation would likely occur later today. If the system does move over the water, it should maintain its intensity or possibly even intensify.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

Reason for Correction: Correct longitudinal position

11 A.M. PDT 6/27/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS UPDATE #10

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Visible satellite images indicate that Carlos continues to weaken and is now a tropical depression. However, heavy rainfall continues to affect parts of Mexico. Up to 3 to 5 inches of additional rainfall is expected over the next few days, bringing about the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings.

Currently, the center of dissipating Tropical Depression Carlos is located somewhere near 16.6N and 98.5W. This position is not very certain due to the diffuse nature of the center. The motion is to the WNW near 7 m.p.h. This general track should continue over the next day or so, keeping the center inland. However, it is possible for the system to turn more to the west or reform further to the SW. Either of these scenarios would bring the center back over the water.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 35 m.p.h., primarily over the coastal waters. The pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. Continued weakening to a remnant low or complete dissipation is expected this afternoon if the center remains inland. However, if the center moves back over the water there would be a slight chance of regeneration.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. PDT 6/27/2003 REMNANTS OF CARLOS UPDATE #11

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Satellite imagery indicates that Carlos has degenerated into a broad and diffuse area of low-pressure over the mountains, close to the coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat form this system with additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches very possible.

This is the final update that will be issued on Carlos. Carlos will be monitored in case a new center forms over the water. If this occurs, updates will resume.

Forecaster: Ortt

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