2100 UTC 5/20/2003 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Andres has been moving to the west this afternoon, under the ridge to its north. Global models keep this intact and water vapor imagery shows nothing eroding it, so the forecast is just slightly to the north of west through 72 hours at about 10KT.

The intensity is being set to 40KT, based upon a QUIKSCAT pass from this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that the cliud tops are warming and the center to the west of the convection. Water vapor and SSMi imagery indicate the presence of dry air near the storm. This, along with some weak shear, should keep the system from intensifying all that much through the period. Due to the westerly track, cool waters ar enot expected to be a factor through 72 hours.

Initial: 9.7N 106.9W 40KT
12 Hour: 10.0N 108.5W 40KT
24 Hour: 10.4N 110.2W 40KT
36 Hour: 10.7N 112.1W 45KT
48 Hour: 11.1N 114.3W 45KT
72 Hour: 12.0N 117.0W 45KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC (future discussions will be at 1500)

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 5/21/2003 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Andres continues to move to the west, though slightly faster than previously forecast. Global models keep the ridge to the north in tact through 72 hours, so the forecast is an update of the previous one, though slightly faster.

Maximum winds are kept at 40KT based upon satellite estimates. Shear continues to affect the cyclone, as well as dry air. Therefore, this intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, though winds will be raised to 45KT in 24 hours. Winds are held at 45KT through the remainder of the period. Interesting to note, the global models initialized Andres poorly and some do not even pick up on the storm at all.

Initial: 10.1N 110.6W 40KT
12 Hour: 10.4N 113.1W 40KT
24 Hour: 10.8N 115.8W 45KT
36 Hour: 11.3N 118.3W 45KT
48 Hour: 11.8N 120.6W 45KT
72 Hour: 12.5N 125.5W 45KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 5/22/2002 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Andres continues to move quickly to the west under the influence of the strong ridge of high-pressure to its north. This ridge should hold through 72 hours; therefore, this forecast will be similar to the previous one, except a little faster to reflect the current forward speed.

The intensity remains at 40KT. Water vapor imagery shows increasing shear ahead of the cyclone and drier air beginning to wrap around the southern semi-circle of the cyclone. Therefore, no intensification is forecast. Weakening to a tropical depression is now in the forecast at 72 hours. This is response to global model forecasts weakening the storm, as well the current negative environment.

Initial: 11.0N 117.3W 40KT
12 Hour: 11.5N 120.9W 40KT
24 Hour: 12.0N 123.5W 40KT
36 Hour: 12.5N 126.0W 40KT
48 Hour: 13.0N 128.5W 40KT
72 Hour: 14.0N 134.0W 30KT

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: Graphics will not be available until this afternoon.

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