0300 UTC 10/5/2003 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Olaf has been moving to the WNW. However, all guidance indicates that the system should begin to turn more to the north. This is consistent with the short waves to the north of the system, as well as its proximity to the eastern portion of the circulation associated with Hurricane Nora. For now, both this forecast, as well as the one for Nora is assuming no Fujiwara effect. GFDL brings the system inland near Puerta Vallerta. The global models are having serious problems initializing this cyclone. I will be slightly to the left of GFDL as it does not appear as if the upper trough is going to be enough to force Olaf to recurve sharply enough to make landfall near Puerta Vallerta. This track takes Olaf toward Baja. One fly in the ointment could be Larry emerging into the Pacific, though this is not currently forecast.

Initial intensity is being set to 55KT. Satellite imagery indicates that Olaf is fighting some easterly shear as the convection is being displaced to the west of the center. Therefore, the rate of intensification that will be indicated in this forecast will be slow, though hurricane intensity is expected to be reached in the next 24 hours.

Initial: 15.9N 104.0W 55KT
12 Hour: 16.7N 105.6W 60KT
24 Hour: 17.7N 107.3W 65KT
36 Hour: 19.0N 108.5W 70KT
48 Hour: 20.5N 109.5W 70KT
72 Hour: 22.0N 110.5W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 24.0N 111.0W 55KT (inland)
120 Hour: 26.0N 111.0W 45KT (over water)

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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