0300 UTC 10/5/2003 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Nora has been moving to the NW throughout the day. Water vapor imagery indicates that a shortwave trough is passing to the north of Nora; thus, producing a track to the NW. The BAMD, along with the GFDL indicate a track toward the Baja Peninsula. Complicating matters will be the influence of Olaf, which will also be moving toward the Baja Peninsula. However, more reliable models, such as the AVNI and NOGAPS also show an eastward component to the motion. Therefore, the track forecast will indicate some motion to the at the end and have the system nearing the central portions of the Peninsula in 120 hours, in agreement with the majority of the guidance.

Initial intensity is set to 90KT. The IR imagery has become less impressive this evening; however, the system is showing an eye on night-time visible imagery. Guidance is in agreement with steady weakening and this is reasonable as the hurricane will be tracking over sub 26C waters. Therefore, Nora is not expected to be the third hurricane to make landfall on the Baja Peninsula this season.

Initial: 18.4N 113.0W 90KT
12 Hour: 19.5N 114.2W 90KT
24 Hour: 20.5N 115.1W 85KT
36 Hour: 21.5N 115.5W 80KT
48 Hour: 22.5N 115.5W 75KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 114.8W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 27.5N 113.5W 50KT (inland)
120 Hour: 29.5N 113.5W 25KT (inland and dissipating)

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 10/5/2003 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Not much is different in this hurricane as there is with Olaf. Nora will be steered significantly by its interaction with Olaf. Due to the uncertainity, I am going to follow the model consensus for both track and intensity here, as I have done with Nora.

It needs to be noted to the general public that may read these or official products that one should not be concerned which hurricane will affect them if a watch or a warning is issued. The watch or warning should be the overriding consideration as a hurricane is a hurricane.

Initial: 19.5N 113.7W 80KT
12 Hour: 20.2N 113.8W 75KT
24 Hour: 21.5N 113.5W 70KT
36 Hour: 23.0N 112.5W 65KT
48 Hour: 25.0N 111.0W 40KT (inland)
72 Hour: 27.5N 109.0W 35KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 30.0N 106.0W 25KT (inland and dissipating)
120 Hour: Inland and Dissipated

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 10/6/2003 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Nora continues to weaken. Nora has lost much of its deep convection as dry air from the south and west has intruded the storm's inner core.

Nora is drifting to the northeast. Nora is expected to drift over the Baja California and weaken as dry air will continue to rip Nora apart. Nora is expected to dissipate within 24 hours or so.

Initial: 20.4N 113.5W 35KT
12 Hour: 20.8N 113.1W 30KT
24 Hour: Dissipated

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

1500 UTC 10/6/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA FORECAST DISCUSSION #6

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Nora continues to weaken and has been downgraded to a depression. Nora has lost all of its deep convection as dry air from the south and west has intruded the storm's inner core.

Nora is drifting to the northeast. Nora is expected to drift over the Baja California and weaken as dry air will continue to rip Nora apart. Nora is expected to dissipate within 12 hours or so.

Initial: 20.1N 112.3W 30KT
12 Hour: Dissipated

This is the final advisory on Tropical Depression Nora.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

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