0300 UTC 8/28/2003 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Jimena is exploding and has winds to at least 50KT. Visible imagery indicates the presence of an eye. If anything, jimena is near hurricane intensity, though due to the somewhat ragged Ir appearance, the intensity is being kept at 50KT.

The BAM suite has shifted to the north and indicates a Hawaiian threat. the globals keep the system south of the islands. Due to the initial position being farther north than the initialization of the 12Z models, I will lean towards the tropical guidance. The reaosn for this nrothward shift may be due to the UL to the NW of Jimena. This indicates a threat to hawaii in 4-5 days.

Intensity forecast is also above the guidance as SST values appear to be warm enough to sustain development and shear is expected to be low. I would not be surprised to see a category 2 hurricane threatening Hawaii on Labor day.

Initial: 15.6N 133.6W 50KT
12 Hour: 16.5N 136.0W 65KT
24 Hour: 17.3N 138.5W 75KT
36 Hour: 18.0N 140.5W 85KT
48 Hour: 18.5N 142.5W 90KT
72 Hour: 18.8N 146.5W 95KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.9N 151.0W 95KT
120 Hour: 18.9N 157.0W 90KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/29/2003 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Jimena continues to rapidly intensify and is now a hurricane. SHIPS refuses to intensify this not much more than it previously is; however, SHIPS has been slow. Conditions appear favorable so this forecats continues to reflect intensification to near cat 3 intensity as it passes by Hawaii.

Track guidance is slightly south and indicates that the northward component should end soon. Satellite imagery indicates that a westward motion may be resuming. This forecast is slightly south of the previous one; however, not as far south as much of the guidance.

Initial: 16.8N 136.0W 65KT
12 Hour: 17.4N 138.5W 75KT
24 Hour: 17.8N 141.0W 85KT
36 Hour: 18.0N 143.0W 90KT
48 Hour: 18.2N 145.0W 95KT
72 Hour: 18.3N 149.0W 95KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.3N 153.5W 90KT
120 Hour: 18.3N 159.0W 90KT

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/30/2003 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Jimena appears to be leveling off in intensity from the cooler surface waters are under the system. Curently Jimena is a category two storm. Jimena should pass very close to the Big Island as a weak category-1.

Track guidance is westward motion as indicated by most seems plausible. Satellite imagery affirms model consensus. The track forecast differs little from the previous one; however, not as far south as much of the guidance. This will be a very close call for the southern Hawaii islands.

Initial: 17.3N 142.0W 85KT
12 Hour: 17.4N 144.5W 85KT
24 Hour: 17.8N 147.2W 80KT
36 Hour: 18.0N 149.7W 80KT
48 Hour: 18.2N 152.2W 75KT
72 Hour: 18.3N 157.8W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.3N 164.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 18.3N 170.0W 70KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 8/31/2003 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the Central Pacific Hurricanethe Center

Jimena jogged slightly to the north; thus, the system will likely pass close enough to Hawaii to bring hurricane force winds, if not make an actual landfall. Will remain south of BAM guidance, but north of some global guidance.

No change in intensity is being reflected until this passes Hawaii as the system may move over warmer SST just prior to impacting Hawaii, as many systems in the past have done.

No graphics with this forecast

Initial: 17.7N 145.3W 90KT
12 Hour: 18.0N 148.5W 85KT
24 Hour: 18.2N 151.5W 80KT
36 Hour: 18.3N 154.5W 80KT
48 Hour: 18.4N 157.5W 75KT
72 Hour: 18.4N 160.5W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.4N 166.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 18.4N 172.0W 70KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/31/2003 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Jimena has jogged slightly to the north. This will result in a track much closer to Hawaii than previously anticipated, if not a landfall. A straight westward track is expected after 24 hours, though the track is only a few miles south of South Point.

Initial intensity is slightly below satellite estimates and is 80KT. Recon will investigate this afternoon. Southerly shear is currently impacting the cycloneWill only go with slight weakening before impact on the islands due to atmospheric conditions possibly being more condusive for development as the system nears Hawaii.

Initial: 18.0N 148.5W 80KT
12 Hour: 18.3N 151.5W 75KT
24 Hour: 18.6N 155.0W 75KT
36 Hour: 18.7N 158.0W 75KT
48 Hour: 18.7N 161.0W 70KT
72 Hour: 18.7N 167.0W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.0N 171.5W 65KT
120 Hour: 20.0N 175.0W 65KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt