2100 UTC 8/12/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not form the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Guillermo continues to move to the west under the influence of the large ridge to the north. The track forecast is fairly straight forward with a motion mainly to the west over the enxt few days. Some models bring this to the north; however, models such as GFS move the system through the ridge. In addition, a developing disturbance to the SW may steer this west around the northern part of its circulation. This track keeps the cyclone south of Hawaii. A slowing is indicated near the end of the period, in agreement with guidance.

Initial intensity is being kept at 30KT. Most intensity guidance indicates significant intensification. However, CMC, a relaible model so far this season, dissipates the system soon. NW shear is currently impacting the cyclone and the southern inflow is being disrupted by the disturbance to the SW. Therefore, this intensity forecast will go with no change in intensity through the period.

Initial: 16.2N 140.4W 30KT
12 Hour: 16.2N 143.6W 30KT
24 Hour: 16.2N 146.5W 30KT
36 Hour: 16.2N 148.5W 30KT
48 Hour: 16.3N 150.0W 30KT
72 Hour: 16.3N 152.0W 30KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 16.4N 154.0W 30KT
120 Hour: 16.4N 156.0W 30KT

Next Discussion: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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