1500 UTC 7/6/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4-E FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression 4-E has been moving WNW over the past 24 hours. The steering is being controlled by a large ridge to its NW. The global models have been in good agreement with this ridge remaining in tact over the next few days, though NW of the system. The system would not be under the ridge until about 125W. This should allow the cyclone to continue slowly gaining latitude. Therefore, a WNW track will be forecast through 24 hours, followed by a turn to the west.

Initial intensity is being set at 30KT. This is lower than the SSD and TAFB estimates of 35KT and in agreement with the NWHHC estimate. Satellite imagery indicates that the center remains on the eastern edge of the convection. SHIPS brings this to 44KT in 72 hours. The northward component to the motion will bring the system over cooler waters in about 48 hours; therefore, I ill bring the system to4 5KT in 48, then hold the intensity at 45KT in 72 hours. If the system moves farther south than expected, a stronger cyclone is likely.

Initial: 14.3N 117.2W 30KT
12 Hour: 14.7N 119.0W 35KT
24 Hour: 15.1N 120.7W 35KT
36 Hour: 15.5N 122.4W 40KT
48 Hour: 15.8N 124.0W 45KT
72 Hour: 16.0N 127.4W 45KT

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: No graphics will be provided for this system as it is not expected to threaten land. In the unlikely even that it moves into the Central Pacific, graphics will be available.

0300 UTC 7/7/2003 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Delores is moving well to the right of the previous forecast track. The ridge remains NW of the system. The system may be rotating around a larger circulation or has responded to a very weak weakness to the NE. I believe it is the former and not the latter. In any event, since the system is now shallow, a turn back to the left is expected as the system is steered by the low-level flow. It is interesting to note that the guidance wants to continue the track to the north.

Initial intensity is set to 35KT based upon a recent QUIKSCAT pass. Weakening is expected at a faster rate than SHIPS is indicating as the system is moving over cooler waters to a remnant low in 36 hours.

Initial: 16.3N 118.6W 35KT
12 Hour: 17.5N 120.0W 30KT
24 Hour: 18.5N 122.0W 25KT (Dissipating)
36 Hour: 19.0N 124.0W 20KT (Remnant Low)
48 Hour: Remnant Low

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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