0300 UTC 6/26/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3-E FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression 3-E has been moving to the west today. An upper low is located to the NE of the depression. The northerly winds on the western side of this circulation may be preventing this form moving more to the north. Regarding the future track, the global models show a broad area of low-pressure ahead of the system with no well-defined ridge to the north. This indicates a slow motion and the system may be able to gain some latitude. Track guidance also seems reasonable as it indicates a mostly westerly track as well. Therefore, this forecast will follow the track guidance and call for a motion between west and WNW through 72 hours. The system should remain offshore if it follows this track, though a deviation to the right would bring the center much closer.

The initial intensity is being set to 30KT based upon an SAN satellite estimate. This is higher than the 25KT NWHHC estimate. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for intensification as there is little shear. In addition, the SST values are very high. With conditions being this favorable, I will forecast hurricane intensity in 48 hours and peak out at 75KT in 72. This is a compromise between SHIPS and GFDI.

Initial: 14.6N 97.8W 30KT
12 Hour: 14.9N 99.1W 35KT
24 Hour: 15.2N 100.5W 45KT
36 Hour: 15.4N 101.9W 55KT
48 Hour: 15.7N 103.5W 65KT
72 Hour: 16.3N 107.5W 75KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: No graphics available with this forecast

1500 UTC 6/26/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3-E FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

A slow moving Tropical Depression just south of the Mexican coast appears to strengthening further. The latest satellite imagery suggests some convection around the center. This Tropical Depression is in an favorable environment to strengthen and may propogate very close to the southwest Mexico coast. This system is likely to become a Tropical Storm in 12-24 hours and possibly hurricane strength in 48 hours. Global models are not in very good agreement, so this system will closely be analyzed.

Initial: 14.5N 98.3W 30KT
12 Hour:15.1N 99.3W 35KT
24 Hour:15.7N 100.4W 45KT
36 Hour:16.4N 101.4W 55KT
48 Hour:17.2N 102.3W 65KT
72 Hour:18.1N 105.0W 60KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

2100 UTC 6/26/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

The eye of Carlos has formed NE of the previous center locations. This will result in a track much closer to the coast if not inland. Therefore, hurricane warnings are being recommended. The system is expected to begin moving NW to WNW soon, though if it continues its northerly jog, the system will make landfall within the next 12-24 hours. The reason for this slow motion is a weakness to the NW. However, this track does bring the center onshore by a few miles.

The initial intensity is being set at 60KT. This is higher than all satellite estimates due to the formation of the eye on visible imagery. SHIPS was initialized at 45KT and brings this to category 2 intensity. Assuming the center remains offshore, I will forecast a minimal category 3 storm in 48 hours as the environment is very favorable for intensification with low shear and high SST content.

Initial: 15.1N 97.6W 60KT
12 Hour: 15.6N 98.4W 70KT
24 Hour: 16.3N 99.3W 80KT
36 Hour: 16.9N 100.2W 90KT
48 Hour: 17.6N 101.1W 100KT(inland)
72 Hour: 19.0N 104.0W 85KT(inland)

Next Discussion: 900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 6/27/2003 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Carlos has finally began to turn to the west. The fact that this turn took longer to occur than expected resulted in landfall much sooner than anticipated. Guidance continues to indicate a WNW track with a bend more to the west as does this forecast, keeping the center inland. However, only a small deviation would bring the center back over water.

Initial intensity is being set at a very generous 35KT, primarily over the coastal waters. It is unlikely these winds are occurring over land. Intensity forecast is dependent upon the track. if the center remains inland, system should dissipate this afternoon. However, if it moves back over the water, it would likely maintain its intensity or possibly even intensify, assuming the boundary layer has not been disrupted too much. I will weaken the system to a remnant low at 24 hours; however, will continue to provide coordinates through 72 hours for verification purposes in case Carlos does move back over the water.

Initial: 16.5N 98.0W 35KT (Inland)
12 hour: 17.0N 99.0W 25KT (Inland)
24 Hour: 17.4N 100.1W 20KT (Remnant Low, Inland)
36 Hour: 17.7N 101.3W 20KT (Remnant Low, Inland)
48 Hour: 18.0N 102.5W 20KT (Remnant Low, Inland)
72 Hour: 18.2N 105.0W 20KT (Remnant Low, Over Water)

Forecaster: Ortt

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