10 A.M. CDT 6/29/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #1
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
A ship reports that the disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico has developed a closed surface circulation and has tropical storm force winds; therefore, updates are now being issued. All residents of the northern Gulf Coast need to monitor the progress of this system closely.
NWHHC is not currently recommending any watches or warnings; however, please use the official alerts link on the homepage for any official watches and warnings and double check with local emergency management officials.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 22.5N and 91.0W. This places the center about 500 miles south of New Orleans. The motion is an uncertain NW near 5 m.p.h. A NW track is expected to continue with the center currently expected to make landfall in a couple of days on the upper Texas Coast. However, there is uncertainity in this forecast and the point of landfall is not very important now as the effects extend well to the north and east of the center.
Maximum winds are near 40 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. Slow intensification is expected until landfall; however, conditions do not appear to be favorable for this system to become a hurricane. Recon will investigate later this afternoon and provide a better assessment of the system
Next Update: 4 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
4 P.M. CDT 6/29/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #2
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill reforms farther to the north. Now only about 350 miles south of New Orleans. Landfall is expected sometime on Tuesday. Louisiana appears to be at the greatest risk at the present time; however, all residents of the northern Gulf Coast need to closely monitor the progress of this system. Heavy rain and isolated severe weather appear to be the greatest threats at the present time.
NWHHC may recommend a tropical storm warning later this evening or early tomorrow morning for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. Please use the official watches and warnings link, as well as local emergency management officials for any official watches and warnings.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 24.6N and 94.9W. This places the center about 350 miles to the south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The motion is to the NNW near 10 m.p.h. This is still a bit uncertain. A NW to NNW track is expected over the next 24 hours, before turning more northerly, bringing the system inland sometime on Tuesday. However, the effects of the storm extend well to the north and east of the center; therefore, the exact track is not as important as it is in a major hurricane.
Maximum winds have increased slightly to near 45 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be near 1008mb. Additional intensification is expected before landfall as Bill is expected to be a strong tropical storm at landfall. However, there is an outside chance that Bill could reach hurricane intensity.
Next Update: 7 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
7 P.M. PDT 6/29/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #3
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Bill is farther to the north and is moving faster and further east than expected. Already, heavy rains from the extreme outer bands are affecting the coast of Louisiana. However, the main circulation is about 24 hours away from the coast. Landfall time appears to be about 12 hours earlier than previously thought, pushing the time up to late tomorrow evening or in the wee hours of Tuesday.
NWHHC will recommend a tropical storm warning for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast either late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Please refer to the official alerts page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 25.8N and 91.0W. This places the system about 280 miles to the south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The motion has been to the north near 13 m.p.h. A NNW track is still expected; however, the track should be farther east than indicated in the latest forecast discussion and a bit faster, bringing the center inland late tomorrow or in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. The worst weather will be felt to the north and east of the center and the tropical storm conditions will likely spread inland late tomorrow afternoon.
Maximum winds remain near 45 m.p.h. The pressure was reported by recon aircraft to be 1009mb. Stead intensification is expected prior to landfall and Bill is expected to be a strong tropical storm with winds to about 45 m.p.h. at landfall. There is an outside chance that Bill could intensify into a minimal hurricane.
Next Update: 10 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
10 P.M. CDT 6/29/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #4
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Bill intensifies as it heads towards the southern Louisiana Coast. Landfall is now expected late tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening and to the east of the location shown in the track graphic. The greatest threat remains heavy rainfall and localized flooding with up to 5-10 inches of rain expected; however, there is the potential for isolated severe weather in association with the landfall as well.
Follow all advice given by local emergency management officials. This includes complying with any and all evacuation orders that may be issued.
NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch (level 2 alert) from Pecan Island, Louisiana to the west of Intracoastal City eastward to Mobile, Alabama. Please see the Alerts Page for an explanation of this alert and the Official Alerts Page for the official watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center. In addition, there are numerous flood watches. Please click here to access a local NWS office for the flood advisories in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 26.5N and 91.2W. This places the center about 240 miles to the SSW of New Orleans, Louisiana. The motion is to the north near 14 m.p.h. A north or NNW track is expected until landfall, bringing the center inland late tomorrow afternoon or early tomorrow evening. Right now, SE Louisiana appears to be at the greatest threat of a direct landfall.
Maximum winds have increased to near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. Additional intensification is expected before landfall. Currently, Bill is not forecast to become a hurricane; however, there is an outside chance of Bill reaching minimal hurricane intensity prior to moving onshore.
Next Update: 4 A.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
4 A.M. CDT 6/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #5
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill continues to move toward the coast of Louisiana. Landfall is expected late this afternoon and into early this evening. The greatest threat appears to be heavy rainfall where up to 10 inches of rain is expected, bringing the threat of localized flooding. In addition, tidal flooding up to 4 to 5 feet above normal is expected near where the center makes landfall. Wind gusts to hurricane force may also occur, along with isolated tornadoes. Already, the outer bands are moving over the coast of Louisiana.
Please comply with all orders given to you by local emergency management officials.
NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch from Pecan Island, Louisiana eastward to Mobile Alabama. Please see the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management for the official watches and warnings. In addition, there are numerous flood watches in effect. Please click here to access your local NWS office for any flood advisories for your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 27.4N and 91.6W. This places the center about 150 miles to the south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The motion is the NNW near 13 m.p.h. This general track is expected today, bringing the center inland in Louisiana this afternoon. However, the effects spread well to the north and east of the center; therefore, the exact forecast track is not very important.
Maximum winds remain near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1009mb. Bill is expected to intensify a little more before reaching the coast; however, it is not currently expected to become a hurricane. That being said, it still has the potential to intensify into a minimal hurricane prior to making landfall.
Next Update: 7 A.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
7 A.M. CDT 6/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #6
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill continues towards the coast of Louisiana. Already, the outer bands are bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Louisiana Coast. The core of Bill should arrive early in the afternoon as the center makes landfall. The greatest threat appears to be to the Vermillion Bay region. The greatest effect on land is expected to be heavy rainfall and localized flooding as up to 10 inches of rain is expected. In addition, tidal flooding up to 5 feet is possible, along with isolated gusts to hurricane force and isolated tornadoes. All storm preparations need to be rushed to completion.
Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials
NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch from Pecan Island, Louisiana to Mobile Alabama. Please see the Alerts Page for a description of this alert and the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings. In addition, for any flood and or severe weather watches and warnings, click here to access a local NWS office for information regarding these advisories in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 28.2N and 91.7W. This places the center about 75 miles to the south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The motion is to the north near 14 m.p.h. this general track is expected to continue until landfall, bringing the center inland early this afternoon, slightly before than time indicated in the track graphic. However, the weather is already deteriorating along the coast and will continue to do so as the effects of the storm extend well to the north and east of the center.
Maximum winds remain near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. The satellite and radar signature of Bill has improved this afternoon and there is a chance that Bill may be slightly stronger than indicated here. Some additional intensification is expected before landfall; however, unless recon finds a much stronger system than indicated here, it is unlikely that Bill will have the time to become a hurricane before reaching the coast.
Next Update: 10 A.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
1 P.M. CDT 6/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #8
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Northern part of forming eye wall is moving over coastal Louisiana at this time. Wind gusts to tropical storm force have been reported along the coast of Louisiana. In addition, there have been reports of very heavy rainfall and tornadoes associated with the system as it is moving onshore. Conditions should remain poor through this afternoon and begin to improve this evening as Bill moves farther inland. The greatest threat remains heavy rain with up to 10 inches expected. This may bring about localized flooding. In addition, tidal flooding is occurring along the coast and a storm surge up to 5 feet is expected. All storm preparations should have been completed by now.
Comply with all orders given by local emergency management officials
NWHHC conitnues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch (level 2 alert) from Pecan Island, Louisiana to Mobile, Alabama. Please see the Alerts Page for a description of this alert as well as the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management for the official watches and warnings. In addition, there are numerous flood and tornado advisories in effect. Click here to access a local National Weather Service office for information regarding the flood and tornado threats in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 29.1N and 91.3W. this places the center about 15 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The motion is to the NNE near 14 m.p.h. A northerly motion is expected over the next few hours, followed by a turn more to the NE. This will cause the tropical storm conditions to spread into Mississippi and Alabama later this evening and overnight.
Maximum winds remain near 65 m.p.h. The pressure is 1002mb. Bill appears to be peaking at the present time as it has making landfall. No change in intensity is expected before the center moves full onshore. Rapid weakening to a remnant low is expected within the next 24 hours after the system makes landfall.
Next Update: 4 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
4 P.M. CDT 6.30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #9
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill has made landfall near the Houma area a couple of hours ago and is now spreading the heavy rainfall and gusty winds into New Orleans. Heavy rainfall remains the greatest threat where up to 10 inches of rain is expected. This has the potential to cause localized flooding. Tidal flooding should begin to decrease as the system weakens and moves farther inland. In addition, isolated tornadoes are also possible. 5 tornadoes have already been reported and more are possible as the system moves to the northeast.
NWHHC now recommends a tropical storm warning from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Mobile Alabama. All other watches and warnings are no longer recommended. Please Visit to Official Alerts Page for any official watches and warnings. In addition, there are tornado and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click here to access a local National Weather Service office for information regarding these threats in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 29.5N and 90.8W. This places the center near Houma, Louisiana. The motion is to the NE near 10 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue during the next day or so, taking the system farther inland through Louisiana and Mississippi.
Maximum winds have decreased to near 55 m.p.h. based upon surface observations. The pressure is 997 based upon surface obs. Rapid weakening is now expected as the system has made landfall and the system should be a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Next Update: 7 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
7 P.M. CDT 6/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #10
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill is moving through New Orlenas bringing wind gusts up to 60 m.p.h. Bill is expected to continue to weaken as it moves to the northeast into Mississippi overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. Greatest threat remains heavy rainfall and up to 10 inches of rain is expected, creating the threat of localized flooding. In addition, isolated tornadoes are possible. Several tornadoes have been reported. Tidal flooding along the coast should continue to decrease as Bill moves farther inland and weakens.
NWHHC continues to recommend a tropical storm warning from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Mobile Alabama. Please Visit to Official Alerts Page for any official watches and warnings. In addition, there are tornado and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click here to access a local National Weather Service office for information regarding these threats in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 30.4N and 90.3W. This places the center near Slidell and New Orleans, Louisiana. The motion is to the NE near 16 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue during the next day or so, taking the system farther inland through Louisiana and Mississippi.
Maximum winds have decreased to near 50 m.p.h. based upon surface observations. However, gusts may be as high as 60 m.p.h. The pressure is 998 based upon surface obs. Rapid weakening is now expected as the system has made landfall and the system should be a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Next Update: 10 P.M.
Forecaster: Ortt
10 P.M. CDT 6/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM BILL UPDATE #10
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Bill weakens as it conitnues to move inland. However, the flooding and severe weather threats remain. Already, parts of Louisiana have received in excess of 6 inches of rainfall and these conditions continue to spread into Mississippi and Alabama. Up to 10 inches is expected in isolated locations. In addition, there have been tornadoes that have caused structural damage to homes and businesses. This threat will last overnight and into tomorrow.
NWHHC no longer recommends any tropical storm warnings as the system has moved inland and there are no sustained winds to tropical storm force. However, gusts to tropical storm force will likely still occur over the next few hours near the coast. Please Visit the Official Alerts Page for any official watches and warnings. In addition, there are tornado and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click here to access a local National Weather Service office for information regarding these threats in your area.
Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 30.8N and 90.1W. This places the center about 65 miles SW of Hattiesburg, Mississippi.The motion is to the NE near 16 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue during the next day or so, taking the system farther inland through Louisiana and Mississippi.
Maximum winds have decreased to near 40 m.p.h. based upon surface observations. However, gusts may be as high as 60 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1001mb. Continued rapid weakening is expected as the system is moving farther inland.
This is the final full update that will be issued by NWHHC on Bill. However, tomorrow, flooding and severe weather statements will be issued.
Forecaster: Ortt
4 P.M. EDT 7/1/2003 BILL FLOOD STATEMENT 1
This is an independent product and not from the National Weather Service
The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are currently located in eastern Alabama and are bringing rains to Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle in a narrow band, and are beginning to spread into Tenessee. In addition, these rains will be spreading into the Carolinas later today. Up to 5 inches of rainfall can be expected in local areas, bringing localized flooding. However, this does not appear as if there will be a major flooding event.
In addition, there has been isolated severe weather along the path of Bill since it has made landfall. Isolated tornadoes remain possible and can spin up with little warning.
Click Here for access to a local National Weather Service office for information regarding the threats in your area.
Forecaster: Ortt
10 A.M. EDT 7/2/2003 BILL FLOOD STATEMENT 3
This is an independent product and not form the National Weather Service
The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill continues to move to the northeast, with the heavy rainfall now in North Carolina and Virginia. This rain will spread into Washington and Baltimore this afternoon. Up to 5 inches of rainfall is expected along the path of the system, bringing the threat of localized flooding.
To the south, two feeder bands continue to bring rainfall to the Florida Panhandle and Carolina coastlines. One of these bands is bringing very heavy rainfall just west of Tallahassee, Florida. These bands will continue to move to the east, along with the motion of the entire storm system. Localized rainfall totals to 3-5 inches are possible in these bands.
Isolated severe weather remains a possibility with Bill.
Click Here for access to a local National Weather Service office for information regarding the threats in your area.
Forecaster: Cangialosi
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