1500 UTC 12/9/2003 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Since when does the season end on November 30? 2 named storms in the first 10 days of December!

Tropical Storm Peter is about to interact with an approaching front, the same one that picked up Odette; therefore, a track mainly to the NNE or NE is likely, in good agreement with the guidance.

Initial intensity is 40KT. Due to some uncertainty, this intensity will be maintained through 36 hours, at which time Peter is forecast to become extra-tropical. This is a different solution that guidance indicates as guidance suggests that the system will dissipate within about 24-36 hours due to shear. For now, we will go with ET transition as often guidance tends to over do the weakening.

Initial: 20.0N 37.0W 40KT
12 Hour: 22.5N 36.0W 40KT
24 Hour: 25.0N 34.5W 40KT
36 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 12/10/2003 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

As quickly as it developed, Peter is weakening. Strong shear has displaced all of the convection well to the east of the center, leaving just a swirl of low clouds. For this reason, the initial intensity is decreased to 45kT to allow for the typical time lag in the spin down. Further weakening is likely until extra-tropical transition, which is expected within the next 24 hours.

The track has been left of forecast as steering winds have been more southerly. The left bias began once the system became shallow. Since this is going to be a shallow storm, only a slight eastward component is indicated with this forecast due to the presence of a small UL to the SE. This likely also had a hand in bringing the system west of north today.

Initial: 22.6N 37.1W 45KT
12 Hour: 26.0N 36.5W 30KT
24 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 12/10/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

As quickly as it developed, Peter is weakening. Strong shear has displaced all of the convection well to the east of the center, leaving just a swirl of low clouds. For this reason, the initial intensity is decreased to 30KT. The shear is not expected to let up as a strong front nears this system, so further weakening is likely until extra-tropical transition, which is expected within the next 24 hours.

Initial: 24.2N 37.0W 30KT
12 Hour: 26.8N 36.3W 25KT Remnant Low
24 Hour: Dissipated

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 12/11/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Peter has degenerated into a remnant low. This is indicated by satellite imagery. The center is now very hard to find. The weakening was caused by significant NW shear from the approaching front. The remnant low is expected to move along the front as the systems merge.

This is the final forecast for Peter.

Forecaster: Ortt

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