0300 UTC 10/11/2003 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Mindy should make a turn more to the north, then NE within the next couple of days as the upper winds are out of the west. Guidance agrees with this solution. However, Mindy will likely make it far enough west to bring some impacts to the Turks and Caicos Islands. It is not yet known whether the turn will be wide enough to allow for this to pass Bermuda. One interesting note, the global model guidance is basically useless as the models do not have a closed low at the surface.

Initial intensity is being increased to near 40KT. Recent satellite images indicate intermittent bursts of convection; however, the convective patters does not appear to be well organized. However, earlier recon data did find that the pressure was slowly falling. SHIPS indicates some development; however, I am going to tend to be slightly lower than that due to the current southerly shear over the system from an upper low to the west, and from the expected increase in shear.

Most global models, for what they are worth, indicate that this system will merge with a larger low to the north. This low is being classified using the Herbert Poteat technique; thus, it is being monitored for signs of further subtropical development. Regarding this forecast, merger is currently being forecast after 72 hours.

Initial: 20.5N 69.9W 40KT
12 Hour: 22.5N 71.0W 45KT
24 Hour: 24.5N 71.0W 45KT
36 Hour: 26.5N 70.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 29.0N 68.5W 50KT
72 Hour: 34.5N 66.0W 45KT (becoming extra-tropical)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: Merged with Larger Low

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 10/11/2003 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Recon and satellite imagery indicate that Mindy is weakening. Recon winds do not justify keeping this as a tropical storm; however, I prefer to wait a little longer before reducing this to a depression. That being said, I will not forecast any intensification through the period and it would not at all be surprising to see Mindy collapse due to strong upper winds.

Whatever is left of Mindy should be steered to the north, then NE as it interacts with a trough and the westerlies.

Initial: 22.2N 71.6W 35KT
12 Hour: 24.5N 72.0W 35KT
24 Hour: 27.0N 70.5W 35KT
36 Hour: 30.0N 68.0W 35KT
48 Hour: 33.0N 66.0W 35KT
72 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 10/12/2003 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

After showing signs of organization this afternoon, Mindy has reverted to its sheared shape with nighttime visible imagery indicating that the center is exposed well to the west of the convection. Satellite imagery suggests that the shear continues over the system and is showing no signs of abating. Therefore, this intensity forecast will suggest some slight weakening before the extra-tropical transition; which is now expected to occur in about 48 hours, possibly before the system reaches Bermuda.

The track should be straight forward with Mindy making the turn to the north at any time, followed by a track to the NE as it interacts with the approaching trough and the westerlies.

Initial: 24.2N 72.1W 35KT
12 Hour: 26.5N 72.2W 35KT
24 Hour: 28.5N 70.5W 35KT
36 Hour: 31.0N 67.0W 30KT
48 Hour: Extra-Tropical

No graphics with this forecast

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 10/12/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Strong wind shear has taken its toll on Mindy, leaving the system as a swirl of low clouds, with only minimal convection well to the east of the center. A new convective burst may very well occur over the center as the trend has been for 12 hours of convection, followed by 12 hours of decay. However, with the shear increasing, the trend should be more towards longer periods of decay; therefore, the system is now forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

Whatever is left of Mindy should conitnue to move to the NE over the next couple of days, in the general direction of Bermuda; however, the effects on the islands are not expected to be significant.

Initial: 25.2N 71.8W 30KT
12 Hour: 27.4N 70.0W 25KT (Dissipating)
24 Hour: Dissipated

No graphics with this forecast

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 10/13/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Satellite imagery indicates that the strong shear persists over Mindy and that the system is unable to generate deep convection over its center. All convection is located well east of the cyclone and is being displaced even farther east due to the shearing winds. In addition, earlier recon data barely even justified an initial intensity of 25KT. Satellite classifications have declined significantly since then. Based upon the above, Mindy is being called a remnant low. The system will be monitored for signs of redevelopment.

This is the final discussion on Mindy

Forecaster: Ortt

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