0300 UTC 9/28/2003 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #6
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate is basically on the forecast track this evening and there has been little change to the reasoning. The large trough should continue to force Kate to the north, then NE at a slow speed. This track is similar to the previous one, though ever so slightly to the left at the later periods.
Initial intensity is being set to 45KT based upon the convective flare up. Kate is expected to only intensify slightly, then start to lose intensity as it moves NE.
Initial: 22.5N 44.7W 45KT
12 Hour: 24.5N 44.7W 45KT
24 Hour: 26.5N 44.7W 50KT
36 Hour: 28.5N 44.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 30.0N 42.5W 50KT
72 Hour: 33.0N 39.5W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 35.0N 37.0W 40KT
120 Hour: 36.5N 34.0W 35KT
Next Discussion: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Ortt
0300 UTC 9/30/2003 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #9
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Kate is approaching hurricane strength. A well defined CDO is indicated on satellite; however the eye feature, clearly seen earlier, has become less
evident and ragged. Kate continues to move NE near 16 mph. The CMC, GFS, GFDL, and UKMET all suggest this northeast movement of Kate to turn to the
west or northwest in 24 hours or so. This is as a ridge of high-pressure replaces the trough to the north. Due to this, this track will reflect a slow westerly drift. This
track is a bit slower than before due to the shift right from the global models.
Initial intensity is set to 60KT. SHIPS strengthens Kate to a cat-1 storm in 24 hours. Little change in intensity is expected through the forecast due to moderate shear
and cooler waters; however, will follow SHIPS guidance as Kate may become in a lower shear environment in the next day or so, before weakening over cooler
SST's.
Initial: 30.1N 35.4W 60KT
12 Hour: 30.7N 35.0W 60KT
24 Hour: 31.4N 35.3W 65KT
36 Hour: 32.0N 36.5W 65KT
48 Hour: 32.3N 37.5W 65KT
72 Hour: 33.0N 39.5W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 33.5N 41.5W 55KT
120 Hour: 34.0N 44.0W 50KT
Next Discussion: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
0300 UTC 10/01/2003 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #11
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Kate continues to weaken as it interacts with an upper level low
to the southwest. The tropical cyclone has lost some of its deep convection as
the moderate shear continues over the system. Kate tuned northerly today and is
now heading westward as global models have been indicating. The CMC, GFS, GFDL,
and UKMET all suggest this movement of Kate to begin to accelerate some. This
is as a ridge of high-pressure dominates the steering. Due to this, this track
will continue westward and then head more northwest at the end of the forecast
period as a shortwave trough is located over the eastern U.S.
Initial intensity has been cut to 50KT. SHIPS strengthens Kate to a cat-1 storm
in 36 hours. Some strenghtening is expected after 24 hours, as Kate will become
in a lower shear environment as the ridge takes over the steering. However,
strenghtening only to a weak cat-1 storm is expected as SST's are marginal.
Initial: 32.5N 35.7W 50KT
12 Hour: 32.6N 39.2W 55KT
24 Hour: 32.6N 40.7W 60KT
36 Hour: 32.8N 42.1W 65KT
48 Hour: 33.0N 43.8W 65KT
72 Hour: 33.4N 47.0W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 34.0N 51.5W 65KT
120 Hour: 34.5N 55.0W 60KT
Next Discussion: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
1500 UTC 10/01/2003 HURRICANE KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #13
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate has been upgraded to a hurricane. The tropical cyclone has gained some of its deep convection as the moderate shear has let up over the system. Kate is now
heading WSW as global models have been indicating. The CMC, GFS, and GFDL all suggest this movement to remain southwest for next few days or so, followed by a
northwest turn in 4 days. Kate is forecasted to accelerate as well. This change of heading is due to a ridge of high-pressure which is dominating the steering. Once Kate
moves on the back side of the mid-level ridge and interacts with an upper level low to the northwest, the northwest motion should take place. This forecast is further
south than the previous due to the continous southwest motion.
Initial intensity is up tp 65KT. SHIPS strengthens Kate slightly through 48 hours or so before moving it into cooler SST's, while the GFDL strengthens Kate to a cat-2
storm in 4 days or so. Some strenghtening is expected, as Kate will become in a lower shear environment and is becoming better organized. However, strenghtening only
to a cat-1 storm is expected as SST's are marginal.
Initial: 31.3N 42.5W 65KT
12 Hour: 31.1N 44.1W 65KT
24 Hour: 30.9N 46.8W 70KT
36 Hour: 30.6N 49.3W 75KT
48 Hour: 31.3N 51.8W 80KT
72 Hour: 31.8N 55.8W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 33.5N 57.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 36.5N 60.5W 65KT
Next Discussion: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
0300 UTC 10/4/2003 HURRICANE KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #16
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate has continued to the west; however, this track is expected to turn more northerly over the next 48-72 hours as it interacts with the large upper low/trough approaching to its west. Water vapor imagery indicates clearly where the steering flow change is and I cannot see this track reaching passed 58W. Therefore, this track is being shifted to the right of the previous track and indicates a landfall on Newfoundland, instead of Nova Scotia.
Initial intensity remains 100KT. Satellite imagery indicates that the outflow is becoming somewhat restricted, the preliminary sign of shear. Therefore this forecast is going to be less aggressive than the previous and go with a weakening trend after 12 hours. Kate is forecast to cross Newfoundland as a minimal hurricane.
Initial: 29.8N 51.0W 100KT
12 Hour: 30.0N 53.2W 100KT
24 Hour: 30.5N 55.2W 95KT
36 Hour: 31.5N 56.5W 90KT
48 Hour: 33.5N 57.5W 85KT
72 Hour: 38.5N 57.0W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 48.5N 54.0W 65KT
120 Hour: Extra-Tropical
Next Update: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Ortt
1500 UTC 10/5/2003 HURRICANE KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #19
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate has begun the turn to the north. Water vapor imagery indicates that the steering flow should keep Kate well away from Newfoundland and the guidance agrees. Therefore, the forecast continues to go with this scenario.
Initial intensity is being lowered to 90KT and continued weakening is expected during the next few days as the system encounters shear and cooler waters. The rate is slightly slower than SHIPS as systems accelerating to the NE often weaken at a slow rate.
Note: The graphics will be available this afternoon
Initial: 30.8N 56.4W 90KT
12 Hour: 32.3N 57.0W 85KT
24 Hour: 34.3N 56.4W 80KT
36 Hour: 37.0N 55.0W 75KT
48 Hour: 41.0N 51.0W 70KT
72 Hour: Extra-Tropical
Next Discussion: 0300 UTC
Forecaster: Ortt
0300 UTC 10/6/2003 HURRICANE KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #21
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate has accereated and turned towards the NNE. Water vapor imagery indicates that the steering flow should keep Kate well away from Newfoundland and the
guidance agrees. Therefore, the forecast continues to go with this scenario.
Initial intensity is being lowered to 65KT and continued weakening is expected during the next few days as the system encounters shear and cooler waters. As the
system becomes extratropical, however, its intensity may remain near steady-state.
Note: No updated graphics for Kate.
Initial: 39.5N 53.5W 65KT
12 Hour: 43.5N 50.2W 60KT
24 Hour: Extra-Tropical
Next Discussion: 1500 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
1500 UTC 10/6/2003 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST DISCUSSION #22
This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center
Kate has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it undergoes extra-tropical transition. Kate has accereated and turned towards the NNE. Water vapor imagery
indicates that the steering flow should keep Kate well away from Newfoundland and the guidance agrees. Therefore, the forecast continues to go with this scenario.
Initial intensity is being lowered to 60KT and continued weakening is expected during the next few days as the system encounters shear and cooler waters. As the
system continues to become extratropical, however, its intensity may remain near steady-state.
Note: No updated graphics for Kate.
Initial: 45.5N 48.0W 60KT
12 Hour: Extra-Tropical
This is the final advisory on Tropical Storm Kate
Forecaster: Cangialosi