2100 UTC 8/27/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Guidance is somewhat limited, though most global models agree on a ridge maintaining to the north; thus, keeping the system on a track mainly to the west. The 5 day point is to the north of the Lesser Antilles and the trakc is in fairly good agreement with CMC.

Initial intensity is 30KT. CMC does not suggest much intensification and this may verify as the SAL is attemtping to entrain itself into the circulation. SHIPS offers a contrasing opinion and forecasts intensification into an 80KT hurricane at 120 hours. Will go with a compromise though the bias will lean towards the CMC model for now until more evidence comes to light that this system will actually go ahead and intensify.

Initial: 14.6N 31.5W 30KT
12 Hour: 15.3N 35.2W 30KT
24 Hour: 15.8N 39.0W 35KT
36 Hour: 16.5N 42.8W 35KT
48 Hour: 17.2N 46.5W 40KT
72 Hour: 18.4N 53.0W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS EUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.5N 58.0W 45KT
120 Hour: 21.5N 63.0W 50KT

Next Discussion: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/28/2003 TROPICAL STORM 10 FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Guidance is in somewhat of an agreement on Tropical Storm 10's track. The GFDL and UKMET global forecast models bring TD 10 north of the Caribbean islands. The GFS guidance is similar in track but a bit further south. Theridge to the north appears to be the main sterring current for this tropical cyclone thus preventing a major northward movement. The 5 day point is to the north of the Lesser Antilles and the track is in fairly good agreement with GFDL/UKMET.

Initial intensity is 35KT. There is a greater uncertainity in the intensity forecast. There is light to moderate easterly shear over the system currently, however conditions may become more favorable for development as the system continues on itsswift westward path of 16 m.p.h. SST's are very warm and slow development appears likely.

Initial: 15.1N 37.0W 35KT
12 Hour: 15.5N 39.5W 35KT
24 Hour: 15.9N 42.5W 40KT
36 Hour: 16.5N 45.5W 45KT
48 Hour: 17.0N 48.0W 45KT
72 Hour: 18.0N 53.0W 55KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS EUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.5N 58.0W 60KT
120 Hour: 21.5N 63.0W 60KT

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 8/29/2003 TROPICAL STORM FABIAN FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Fabian continues south of the forecast track. Global models are in good agreement with keeping the strong ridge to the north. The only feature that could cause a more northerly turn is the system near 25N and 50W and this area does not appear to be well organized at this time. As a result of the previous track, an adjustment further south is in order. An adjustment of 2 full degree south is in order at the 120 hour forecast point, as well as advancing the system further west due to the time lapse between the forecasts. This indicates more of a threat to the northern Leewards than previously anticipated. it needs to be noted that this is considerably faster than the guidance.

Initial intensity is being set to 45KT for this update. Will follow SHIPS and bring this to category 2 intensity at the end of the period. The theta-e after 72 hours is not expected to be favorable; this is why SHIPS is leveling off the intensity due to the significant contribution of this factor. However, it is possible that fabian will intensify more than expected in the near term and could be a major hurricane at the end of the period.

Long term, I see nothing to indicate recurvature as the models are keeping the ridge well established for a good long while.

Initial: 15.4N 41.2W 45KT
12 Hour: 15.8N 45.0W 55KT
24 Hour: 16.3N 48.4W 60KT
36 Hour: 16.9N 51.5W 65KT
48 Hour: 17.6N 54.5W 70KT
72 Hour: 18.5N 59.5W 80KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.5N 63.0W 85KT
120 Hour: 20.5N 67.0W 90KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/29/2003 HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Fabian has been upgraded into a hurricane. It continues south of the forecast track. Global models are not in very good agreement with keeping the strong ridge to the north. The GFS solutionindicates a trough setting up in the eastern U.S. which would indicate recurvature in the western Atlantic. However, this does not appear likely as this model develops a Gulf of Mexico storm whichis not expected. This forecast will keep the strong subtropical ridge in place, as a result of the previous track, an adjustment further south is in order. An adjustment of 2 full degree south is in orderat the 120 hour forecast point, as well as advancing the system further west due to the time lapse between the forecasts. This indicates more of a threat to the northern Leewards than previouslyanticipated. it needs to be noted that this is considerably faster than the guidance.

Initial intensity is being set to 65KT for this update. Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for further development and will follow SHIPS and bring this to category 3 intensity at the end of theperiod. However, it is possible that Fabian will intensify more than expected in the near term and could be a major hurricane at the end of the period.

The models that do indicate recurvature are doing so from developing a Gulf of Mexico storm which does not appear likely.

Initial: 15.8N 47.0W 65KT
12 Hour: 16.4N 50.0W 75KT
24 Hour: 16.9N 53.0W 90KT
36 Hour: 17.5N 56.1W 95KT
48 Hour: 18.3N 59.0W 100KT
72 Hour: 18.8N 64.0W 105KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 20.0N 69.0W 105KT
120 Hour: 21.7N 72.5W 100KT

Next Discussion: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi/Kozich