2100 UTC 8/14/2003 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

An aircraft reconaissance investigating the tropical disturbance this afternoon in the eastern Gulf of Mexico found a closed circualtion. With this information and verification of better organization from satellite imagery this area has been upgraded and named as Tropical Storm Erika.

Erika, located just west of the Gulf coast of Florida is in favorable conditions for strenghtening. A fairly large ridge is located over the central plains of the U.S this should keep Erika on a westward track bringing the storm into the Texas/Mexico border region in about 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Erika is expected to continue to get better organize in the Gulf of Mexico and should strenghthen to a hurricane before landfall

INITIAL 26.0N 84.4W 35KT
12HR 26.0N 87.7W 50KT
24HR 26.0N 92.0W 60KT
36HR 26.0N 95.0W 65KT
48HR 26.0N 97.5W 65KT
72HR 26.0N 103.5W 30KT (inland)

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0900 UTC 8/15/2003 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Erika continues to move rapidly to the west and this track should continue until landfall tomorrow morning due to the ridge to the north of the storm. Landfall should be in South Texas as the system is expected to mvoe at a heading of 270 degrees.

Despite the favorable conditions and the healthy satellite appearance, recon data does not suggest any further intensification has occurred. Therefore, the intensity remains at 40KT. However, conditions are very favorable, except for a small area of dry air in the western Gulf. SHIPS takes this to near hurricane before landfall and many Gulf hurricanes have been weak 24 hours before landfall. Therefore, the intensity forecast goes with very rapid to explosive development until landfall.

Initial: 26.3N 89.4W 40KT
12 Hour: 26.3N 94.0W 60KT
24 Hour: 26.3N 98.0W 70KT (inland)
36 Hour: 26.3N 102.0W 25KT (inland)
48 Hour: Inland and Remnant Low)

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Back to Archives