1500 UTC 7/16/2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Depression 5 is currently rotating around an upper low to its SW. This should keep the system on a NW heading for about 24 hours. Afterwards, water vapor imagery indicates that the system is expected to be picked up by a large trough. The global models do not pick up on this feature; however, the tropical suite agree on recurvature; therefore, the forecast will as well. A forecast problem may be forward speed once recurvature begins. This forecast will be a bit faster than the tropical suite.

Initial intensity is 25KT based on satellite estimates. Deep convection is currently minimal and the system will soon be heading toward cooler waters. SHIPS only takes this to 41KT as a peak intensity. Therefore, this forecast will bring the system only to minimal tropical storm after 36 hours, then weaken it beyond. There is a chance of an extra-tropical transition during the forecast period.

Initial: 31.5N 54.5W 25KT
12 Hour: 33.5N 55.8W 30KT
24 Hour: 35.5N 56.5W 30KT
36 Hour: 37.0N 56.0W 35KT
48 Hour: 38.0N 54.5W 35KT
72 Hour: 40.0N 51.0W 30KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 43.5N 47.0W 30KT
120 Hour: Extra-tropical

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

No graphics since no land areas are affected

0300 UTC 7/17/2003 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny continues to rotate around the upper low to its SW. However, it will soon lose this influence and begin to experience the trough to its west. Therefore, the storm should not move much farther to the west and begin to turn to the NE in 24 to 36 hours. Some acceleration is expected. Guidance is a bit faster than this afternoon and water vapor imagery indicates some strong westerlies north of 40N. Therefore, this track will be a bit faster than the previous one.

Initial intensity is 35KT based upon satellite estimates. There is not much more time for intensification as the system is moving toward cooler waters. Therefore, the peak forecast intensity will be 40KT, in just 12 hours, followed by slight weakening after 48 hours.

Initial: 33.0N 55.8W 35KT
12 Hour: 35.0N 56.2W 40KT
24 Hour: 36.5N 55.8W 40KT
36 Hour: 38.5N 54.5W 40KT
48 Hour: 40.5N 52.5W 40KT
72 Hour: 43.5N 45.0W 35KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 45.0N 38.0W 35KT
120 Hour: Extra-Tropical

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

No graphics since no land areas are affected

1500 UTC 7/17/2003 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny continues to the NNW. However, water vapor imagery shows a digging trough moving to the east. This should soon impart a NE motion as indicated by the guidance. Long term, guidance indicates a turn to the SE around the ridge. This seems reasonable; therefore, this forecast does likewise.

Initial intensity is set at 50KT based upon satellite estimates. There appears to be an eye-like feature on visible imagery; however, convection is on the decline. Therefore, Danny is only expected to gain 5 more KT before a slow weakening. Will keep at tropical storm intensity in the event that it oves farther to the SE than expected.

Initial: 35.2N 56.2W 50KT
12 Hour: 37.0N 56.3W 55KT
24 Hour: 39.0N 54.5W 55KT
36 Hour: 40.5N 51.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 42.0N 47.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 42.0N 40.0W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 41.5N 35.0W 40KT
120 Hour: 38.5N 34.0W 35KT

Next Discussion: 0300

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/18/2003 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Recurvature has began as Danny is interacting with the approaching trough and the western extent of the ridge. No change to the track reasoning for this package

Initial intensity will remain 50KT for this forecast. A gradual weakening is expected as Claudette moves over cooler waters; however, system will remain at tropical storm intensity to allow for any baroclinic intensification during the period.

This forecast will keep things simple and keep the system as a tropical cyclone throughout the period

Initial: 36.2N 56.2W 50KT
12 Hour: 38.0N 55.5W 50KT
24 Hour: 40.5N 52.0W 45KT
36 Hour: 42.5N 45.0W 45KT
48 Hour: 43.0N 39.0W 45KT
72 Hour: 41.0N 36.0W 40KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 39.0N 35.0W 40KT
120 Hour: 36.0N 35.5W 35KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

No graphics since no land areas are affected

1500 UTC 7/18/2003 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny is recurving around the ridge. Guidance indicates that a NE to east motion should last for about 72 hours, followed by a SW motion around the east side of the ridge. This seems reasonable and the forecast reflects likewise as water vapor imagery indicates that the ridge is remaining in tact.

Initial intensity is increased to 60KT based upon the SSD estimate of 65KT. Deep convection is lacking; therefore, the system will be kept below hurricane intensity. Slow weakening is expected as conditions become unfavorable for development with increasing shear and cooler SST. However, Danny will continue to be kept as a tropical storm due to possible baroclinic intensification.

Initial: 38.3N 54.3W 60KT
12 Hour: 39.5N 52.5W 60KT
24 Hour: 40.0N 50.0W 55KT
36 Hour: 40.0N 45.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 39.5N 40.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 38.5N 37.5W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 37.5N 37.5W 40KT
120 Hour: 35.5N 40.0W 35KT

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/19/2003 HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #6

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny is moving around the large ridge of high pressure in the east Atlantic. Global and the limited tropical guidance available indicates that the motion around the ridge, with a WSW motion at the end of the period is the most likely. Therefore, this forecast is much like the previous one.

Initial intensity is being set to 70KT based upon the appearance of the eye in recent satellite images. Danny has continuously exceeded the intensity forecasts, as well as the guidance forecasts. Guidance drops the system; however, I am not at all convinced that this will happen. To be safe, Danny will continue to be retained as a tropical cyclone over the forecast period.

Note: Danny has a very high barometric pressure due to the high environmental pressures.

Initial: 40.3N 50.5W 70KT
12 Hour: 40.7N 46.0W 65KT
24 Hour: 40.7N 42.0W 60KT
36 Hour: 40.5N 38.5W 55KT
48 Hour: 39.5N 37.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 38.0N 36.5W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 36.5N 37.0W 40KT
120 Hour: 34.0N 41.0W 35KT

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

No graphics since no land areas are affected

1500 UTC 7/19/2003 HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #7

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny continues around the ridge. The ENE motion should turn more to the east, then south, then SW, finally WSW. This is similar to the previous forecasts and continues to be in agreement with the majority of the guidance.

Initial intensity will remain at 70KT due to the continuous appearance of the appearance of the eye. A slow weakening is expected as has been indicated with the previous forecasts. However, this is in excess of the guidance as Danny has intensified much more than expected. Danny continues to be kept as a tropical cyclone as the forecast takes Danny over warmer waters at the end. There is some chance at re-intensification at the end of the period; though this is not being reflected due to the uncertainty.

Initial: 42.3N 46.8W 70KT
12 Hour: 43.0N 42.5W 65KT
24 Hour: 43.5N 38.0W 60KT
36 Hour: 43.5N 34.5W 55KT
48 Hour: 43.0N 33.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 40.0N 34.0W 45KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 37.5N 36.5W 40KT
120 Hour: 35.0N 42.0W 40KT

Next Discussion: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/20/2003 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST DISCUSSION #8

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Danny has collapsed this evening. Initial intensity is being set at a generous 50KT and rapid weakening is now expected to a remnant low in 36 hours due to cool SSTs and high vertical wind shear. The system may move into more favorable conditions over the next 3 days; though the system will be reflected as a remnant low now in 36 hours.

Initial: 42.5N 43.0W 50KT
12 Hour: 41.0N 39.0W 35KT
24 Hour: 39.0N 38.0W 25KT (Dissipating)
36 Hour: Remnant Low

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

No graphics since no land areas are affected

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