2100 UTC 7/8/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #1

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center, nor a Caribbean national weather service

A newly formed Tropical Storm confirmed by Recon an hour ago, appears to becoming better organized. Satellite imageary suggests a well defined circulation pattern and intense convection near the center. Tropical Storm Claudette is expected to intensify and continue its WNW propagation and speed for the next few days..

The initial intensity is measured at 40 KT and the system is moving at 25 mph. All the global models agree on dramatically slowing the storm after 72 hours.With this speed,Claudette is expected to become a hurricane in 36 hours and is expected to near Jamaica less than 24 hours. Residents of Jamaica should closely monitor this storm as it nears land.

Initial: 15.0N 70.5W 40KT
12 Hour: 15.6N 75.5W 50KT
24 Hour: 16.2N 80.0W 60KT
36 Hour: 17.0N 83.7W 65KT
48 Hour: 18.0N 86.0W 65KT
72 Hour: 20.0N 89.0W 60KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 22.0N 92.5W 60KT
120 Hour:24.0N 96.0W 65KT

Next Discussion: 0900

Forecasters: Cangialosi/Ray

1500 UTC 7/9/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #2

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center nor a Caribbean weather service

Tropical Storm Claudette continues on its fast slightly north of west path. The current motion is 22KT. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours; thereafter, Claudette is expected to slow in its forward speed and make a more NW turn. Most of the global models are in agreement tracking Claudette over the northern part of the Yucatan Pennisula, then there is an uncertanity in its track once entering the Gulf of Mexico. Claudette is expected to make landfall in the Yuctan Pennisula in the next 36 hours.

The initial intensity is set at 50KT, based upon 59KT in the northern quad at flight level. 45KT would have been the intensity had recon not estimated surface winds to be 50KT. The pressure has been holding near 1004mb. Water vapor imagery indicates strong shear over the system and it could even open into a wave. For now, the forecast will assume that is remains a tropical cyclone. No change in intensity is indicated until Yucatan landfall, followed by weakening to 35KT over the Yucatan. Global models, except for GFS, agree on significant intensification in the GOM and the forecast will call for 65KT in 72 hours, sightly below GFDL. Of note, SHIPS does not intensify this system in the GOM

Initial: 15.5N 77.5W 50KT
12 Hour: 15.8N 82.0W 50KT
24 Hour: 17.2N 86.5W 50KT
36 Hour: 20.0N 88.0W 50KT(near land)
48 Hour: 22.0N 90.0W 35KT(over water)
72 Hour: 23.0N 92.0W 40KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 24.0N 93.5W 45KT
120 Hour: 25.0N 96.5W 65KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecasters: Cangialosi/Ortt

2100 UTC 7/9/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #3

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center nor a Caribbean national weather service

Tropical Storm Claudette continues its slight north of west motion. As expected the storm has slightly slowed in its forward propagation, now moving at 20KT.A similar track as posted earlier is expected, Tropical Storm Claudette should keep its WNW track making landfall in the northern part of the Yucutan Pennisula within 24-36 hours. After the Yuctuan Pennisula the track is more uncertain. Global models are in some agreement dramatically slowing the storm even stopping it in the mid-Gulf of Mexico. We expect Claudette to greatly slow in its forward speed and be close to the Mexico/Texas coast within 5 days.

Initial intensity remains 50KT. This afternoon, there have been mixed signals from Claudette. Recon has reported a slight pressure drop and maximum 850mb winds to 65KT. In addition, the upper winds do appear to be relaxing as evidenced by better western outflow. In addition, the northern banding feature appears to have become better defined again. This being said, visible imagery indicates an outflow boundary, which is indicative of air flowing away from the system instead of into it. This does not indicate any short term development. Therefore, no change is indicated through 12 hours, with an increase to 60KT at 24 due to the better organization. After the weakening over the Yucatan, re-intensification is expected over the GOM, as indicated by the global models. Of note, SHIPS finally intensifies this slightly in the Gulf.

Initial: 16.0N 79.5W 50KT
12 Hour: 16.6N 83.5W 50KT
24 Hour: 18.0N 86.5W 60KT
36 Hour: 20.5N 89.0W 45KT (inland)
48 Hour: 22.0N 91.0W 45KT (over water)
72 Hour: 23.0N 93.0W 50KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 24.5N 94.0W 60KT
120 Hour: 26.0N 96.0W 70KT

Next Discussion: 0900 UTC

Forecasters: Cangialosi/Ortt

0900 UTC 7/10/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #4

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center or Mexican Weather Service

Claudette has been moving according to the previous forecast track. Not much change to the reasoning at all. Claudette should be over the Yucatan very late today or early tomorrow and move into the Gulf late Friday. The motion is expected to slow as it moves to the western extent of the ridge. Most models, except for GFDL and CMC slow the system dramatically and leave this over the western Gulf in 5 days. This forecast will reflect likewise, though will be shifted slightly south at 120hours to reflect a position near the Texas/Mexican border.

Initial intensity remains 50KT. This is based upon the latest recon reports. Recon has reported a drop in the pressure to 998mb. In addition, outflow continues to expand, a sign of weakening shear. In addition, convection has blossomed near the center, though this may merely be a bursting pattern, which would not indicate rapid intensification. However, some intensification is expected prior to Yucatan landfall. After weakening inland, the trend continues for intensification over the GOM. 75KT is now the 120 hour wind speed.

Initial: 16.8N 82.5W 50KT
12 Hour: 17.8N 85.5W 55KT
24 Hour: 18.8N 88.5W 55KT(near land)
36 Hour: 20.0N 90.5W 35KT(inland)
48 Hour: 21.0N 92.5W 45KT
72 Hour: 22.0N 94.0W 55KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 23.5N 95.5W 65KT
120 Hour: 25.0N 97.0W 75KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: Graphics will be available near 1130

2100 UTC 7/10/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center or Mexican Weather Service

Claudette has been moving north of the short term forecast track over the past few hours and it appears as this track should continue due to some influence from the upper low to the west. However, this feature is moving away. Water vapor imagery of the United States indicates that a long-wave trough is digging over the Mississippi River region, but that this will miss the storm. A ridge is behind this and is expected to build in. The global models agree on this scenario. In addition, the 96 and 120 forward speeds are quicker. UKMET and GFS agree on a landfall between Tampico and La Pesca, Mexico. However, GFDL and the tropical models favor a track more to the right. CMC continues to be down the middle in indicating a landfall near the Tex/Mex border. It appears if this scenario seems likely, though not as fast as CMC is indicating, which is a landfall in less than 72 hours. However, I have seen enough to now forecast a landfall between 96 and 120 hours, in agreement with the global guidance. For now, the numerical tropical guidance is being discounted. as for the short-term, the track will be to the right of the previous one and indicate that Claudette will move very near Cancun.

Initial intensity is being set at 60KT. This is a very conservative estimate based upon 76KT at 700mb in the SE quad. Typically, a 90 percent reduction factor is used and this would yield a value of roughly 68KT. However, visible imagery continues to show outflow boundaries flowing away from the storm and IR imagery shows a distorted cloud pattern. However, the shear does appear to be relaxing as indicated by the outflow present on the western semi-circle. Outflow is still poor on the southern semi-circle. With upper winds improving, and the high 700mb winds, Claudette should become a hurricane within the next few hours. The slowdown will give it more time over the Caribbean, before landfall; thus, it will have more time to intensify. 75KT is now the forecast landfall, though there is some possibility for it to become a bit stronger. The landfall further to the north, means less time over the Yucatan. This results in less weakening. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, SHIPS insists on little intensification for reasons that I am not sure of. CMC has the system inland; thus, the ridge naturally should weaken. 85KT is now forecast at final landfall, though 80 in reflected here as the landfall is expected to be between the 96 and 120 hour forecast positions

After this discussion was written, recon reported a 1005mb pressure. This may not be from the center itself, but it does not suggest any intensification. Therefore, forecast intensity may be quite high.

Initial: 18.6N 84.0W 60KT
12 Hour: 20.1N 85.8W 65KT
24 Hour: 21.6N 87.3W 75KT(near land)
36 Hour: 23.0N 89.0W 65KT
48 Hour: 24.0N 91.0W 70KT
72 Hour: 24.5N 93.0W 75KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 25.0N 95.5W 80KT
120 Hour: 25.5N 98.5W 65KT (inland)

Next discussion: 0900

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/11/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #5

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center or Mexican Weather Service

Claudette has moved faster than anticipated over the past 12 hours, partly due to a center relocation of the previous position. Center is now between Cozemul and Cancun. Overall reasoning remains unchanged. Claudette should continue to the NW, then slowly bend back to the west as the ridge builds in to the north of the system. Global models are coming into good agreement with this scenario. Landfall near the Tex/Mex border is forecast in 96 hours

The initial intensity will be set at a very aggressive 45KT. Recon has been having problems finding a closed center, though this may be due to the fact that it is located fairly close to land. 18 hours ago, after recon found the 988mb pressure, the concern was rapid intensification, not weakening. Upper winds continue to slowly improve, though southerly shear remains over the system. SHIPS still refuses to intensify this, though the global models do. It appears as if upper winds should become more favorable for development over the Gulf of Mexico; thus, intensification into a hurricane seems likely. The global models continue to intensify this in the GOM and what is interesting is that they never significantly intensified the system until it entered the Gulf.

Initial: 21.0N 86.9W 45KT
12 Hour: 23.0N 89.2W 45KT
24 Hour: 24.5N 91.5W 50KT
36 Hour: 25.5N 93.0W 55KT
48 Hour: 26.0N 94.0W 60KT
72 Hour: 26.0N 95.5W 70KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 25.8N 98.0W 80KT (inland)
120 Hour: 25.8N 100.5W 25KT (inland and dissipating)

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 7/11/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #7

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Recon did not send a vortex message and visible imagery indicates a decaying of the center. Technically, this system could be declared as a broad area of low-pressure and updates discontinued. However, for now they will continue to be issued in the event that Claudette makes somewhat of a comeback.

The system is now shallow. The models continue to insist on a westerly turn as the ridge builds behind the trough. A few have been shifting to the north; therefore, instead of shifting the track to the south, the track will remain about the same through the forecast period with a landfall in about 84 hours.

Initial intensity is being set at 40KT, based upon the poor satellite signature. Models continue to intensify this system, though water vapor imagery indicates very dry air to the west of the system. In addition, the upper ridge is located to the east of the system. Therefore, it is clear that conditions do not favor development. No change is indicated now through 24 hours, followed by intensification to 60KT in 72 hours. The system is forecast to make landfall with winds of 65KT; however, it is not reflected in the forecast table as the system should be inland by 96 hours.

Initial: 22.2N 88.5W 40KT
12 Hour: 23.8N 90.0W 40KT
24 Hour: 25.0N 92.0W 40KT
36 Hour: 25.8N 93.0W 45KT
48 Hour: 26.1N 94.0W 50KT
72 Hour: 26.3N 96.5W 60KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 26.3N 99.0W 30KT (inland)
120 Hour Inland and Dissipated

Next Discussion: 1500

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/12/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #8

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Claudette continues to the NW at roughly 10KT. Not much change to the track reasoning, except for the fact that the track guidance now indicates a faster landfall in about 48 hours. The global models still indicate a slow down near the coast. The forecast speed is forecast to slow as the ridge builds in and begin to turn to the west in about 12 to 24 hours. Landfall is expected between the 48 and 72 hour forecast points now, as a compromise between the global and track guidance.

Initial intensity remains at 40KT. Despite the morning blow-up of convection, the system remains in a sheared environment. In addition, the latest SSMI pass indicates some very dry air to the west of the system. Therefore, no rapid intensification is expected. Slow development, is still forecast, though there is not much confidence in the intensity forecast.

Initial: 24.2N 91.1W 40KT
12 Hour: 25.4N 92.5W 40KT
24 Hour: 26.0N 94.0W 45KT
36 Hour: 26.2N 95.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 26.2N 96.0W 55KT
72 Hour: 26.0N 98.0W 50KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: Inland and Dissipated

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 7/12/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #9

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Claudette has slowed its forward motion this afternoon, as has been long anticipated. Again, no change to the forecast reasoning. The ridge to the north is expected to begin steering the storm to the west soon. Models are coming into good agreement with a landfall near the Tex/Mex border and this scenario continues to look reasonable; therefore, this forecast is changed little from the previous one.

Intensity remains at 40KT based upon 55KT reported by recon at flight level and a 2mb pressure rise to 1008mb. While Claudette is finally looking like a legitimate tropical storm, atmospheric conditions continue to preclude significant intensification, with shear and dry air. The guidance continues to intensify the system; thus, this forecast will, though at a slower rate that previous forecasts.

Initial: 24.6N 90.9W 40KT
12 Hour: 25.2N 91.5W 40KT
24 Hour: 25.7N 92.6W 45KT
36 Hour: 25.8N 94.0W 50KT
48 Hour: 25.9N 96.0W 55KT
72 Hour: 25.9N 98.5W 35KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: Inland and Dissipated

Next Discussion: 1500

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/13/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #10

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Despite persistent unfavorable atmospheric conditions in the form of westerly shear and dry air, recon reports that the pressure has fallen to 996mb and flight level winds in the NW quad have increased to 85KT. This supports a surface wind of 50KT.

No change to the track reasoning and the guidance continues to indicate a landfall near Tex/Mex. This continues to be reasonable due to the building ridge to the north. However, the center has reformed slightly to the east. Therefore, landfall will be a little later than previously thought and the track guidance agrees with this scenario. Landfall is expected sometime on Tuesday afternoon. It should be noted that some models, such as BAMD keep the system offshore and turn it farther north.

Regarding future intensity changes, slow development seems likely as the shear appears to be lessening. Rapid development is not likely due to the dry air. However, with the system intensifying in this hostile environment, it is possible that this will become a hurricane and this is reflected here. This is the course of least regret. It is also possible that this is a transient trend and that Claudette will quickly revert back to its disorganized state.

Initial: 25.5N 92.2W 50KT
12 Hour: 25.6N 93.0W 50KT
24 Hour: 25.7N 94.2W 55KT
36 Hour: 25.7N 95.5W 60KT
48 Hour: 25.7N 97.0W 65KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 99.5W 30KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: Inland and Dissipated.

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: Graphics will be available shortly after 11 A.M. CDT

2100 UTC 7/13/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #11

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Claudette appears to be nearly stationary at the present time. However, it does appear as if the syste should soon begin a slow motion back toward the west. A 500mb ridge is located to the NW and as the trough pushes farther east, this ridge should impart a westward steering flow. Question remains as to which side of Tex/Mex Claudette will make landfall. Global models indicate south of the border while GFDL insists on more northward landfall. I don't want to change the previous forecast too dramatically, though as a compromise, I will not call for the WSW motion after 48 hours. Also, this track is slower out of respect for the tropical track models and the initial motion.

Initial intensity will remain at 50KT. This morning, recon reported that the pressure had fallen to 994mb, a 14mb drop from yesterday afternoon. However, the last fix registered 996mb and based upon the satellite imagery, the pressure may have risen a little more. However, intensity guidance continues to indicate further intensification; therefore, this forecast will do likewise. 65KT is the 48 hour intensity. It should be noted that if the mid-level center shears off, Claudette would likely weaken and not intensify.

Initial: 25.3N 92.2W 50KT
12 Hour: 25.5N 93.0W 50KT
24 Hour: 25.7N 94.0W 55KT
36 Hour: 25.8N 95.0W 60KT
48 Hour: 25.8N 96.3W 65KT
72 Hour: 25.8N 98.5W 40KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: 25.8N 101.0W 25KT (inland and dissipating)
120 hour: Inland and dissipated

Next Discussion: 0900 UTC (No graphics with that discussion)

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/14/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #12

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

Claudette has moved a but farther north than expected. Therefore, the landfall zone needs to be adjusted northward. However, track reasoning does remain unchanged. The ridge should build in to the north, forcing the system to the west. This is also what the models go with. Therefore, a westward turn still is called for, though the landfall zone is shifted a bit to the north by about 1 degree

Initial intensity remains 55KT. Satellite imagery still shows a sheared system with convection developing near the center frequently, only to have it sheared off to the northeast. SHIPS brings this to just below hurricane intensity. However, hurricane intensity is still forecast as it would not take a significant improvement in the atmospheric conditions to allow for this to intensity.

Initial: 26.3N 92.5W 55KT
12 Hour: 26.6N 93.1W 55KT
24 Hour: 26.8N 94.5W 60KT
36 Hour: 26.8N 96.0W 65KT
48 Hour: 26.8N 97.5W 50KT(inland)
72 Hour: 26.8N 99.5W 25KT(inland and dissipating)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: Inland and dissipated

Next Discussion: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

Note: No graphics with this forecast

1500 UTC 7/14/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #13

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

The track is shifting farther north. The ridge has not build in as fast as expected. Track guidance also continues to shift to the right; therefore, the landfall location will now be another full degree to the north of the previous forecast.

Claudette continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Recon has reported an open eye and satellite imagery indicates a more symmetrical storm. Winds will remain at 55KT for now and may have to be raised later based upon future recon reports. The landfall intensity will be increased to 70KT based upon the increased organization.

Initial: 26.8N 92.7W 55KT
12 Hour: 27.4N 93.2W 60KT
24 Hour: 27.7N 94.0W 65KT
36 Hour: 27.8N 95.5W 70KT
48 Hour: 27.8N 97.5W 50KT (inland)
72 Hour: 27.8N 100.0W 25KT (inland and dissipating)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS
96 Hour: Inland and dissipated

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 7/14/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #14

This is an independent product and not from the National Hurricane Center

The system appears about to take the westerly turn based upon recent radar imagery. Therefore, ther eis not much change in the track reasoning and this track is similar to the last one with just a slight northward adjustment.

Initial intensity remains 60KT based upon the satellite signature and the falling pressures. Continued intensification, now to 75KT is indicated. This is well above SHIPS and SHIFOR, both of which do not intensify the system.

One interesting note. A wind analysis indicates that the strongest winds are est of the center. Therefore, the coastline may not experience the strongest winds of the system as by the time the strongest winds move on shore, the storm will have weakened.

Initial: 27.5N 93.1W 60KT
12 Hour: 28.0N 94.3W 70KT
24 Hour: 28.3N 95.5W 75KT
36 Hour: 28.3N 97.0W 75kT (near land)
48 Hour: 28.3N 99.0W 35KT (inland)
72 Hour: Inland and Dissipated

Next Discussion: 0900

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/15/2003 HURRICANE CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #15

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Claudette has accelerated a bit faster than anticipated. This should bring the center inland early this afternoon near Port Oconnor. With the ridge to the north, the motion should be mainly to the west.

Initial intensity is set at 65KT, based upon 84KT at the 850mb flight level. Radar imagery indicates a poorly defined eye at the present time. However, satellite imagery shows much better outflow in all quadrants. Therefore, some slight intensification is possible before landfall.

Initial: 28.0N 95.3W 65KT
12 Hour: 28.1N 97.3W 65KT(inland)
24 Hour: 28.1N 99.0W 30KT(inland and dissipating)
36 Hour: Remnant Low

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC (if system remains over the water)

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 7/15/2003 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORECAST DISCUSSION #16

This is an independent product and not form the National Hurricane Center

Claudette made landfall earlier this afternoon into Port O'Conner, Texas bringing heavy rains, wind and high surge. Claudette has now been weakened to a tropical storm over Texas. On satellite imageary the eye has filled in, and winds have slackened in intenity. Claudette continue to move westward at 12 kt. This storm will of course weaken further as it continues its inland coarse. .

Initial: 28.7N 97.5W 60KT
12 Hour: 28.8N 99.9W 35KT(inland)
24 Hour: 29.1N 102.0W 25KT(inland and dissipating)
36 Hour: Remnant Low

Forecaster: Cangialosi

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