12 Hour: 23.9N 76.5W 35KT

24 Hour: 24.9N 77.9W 45KT

36 Hour: 25.6N 79.0W 55KT

48 Hour: 25.9N 80.3W 65KT (inland)

72 Hour: 26.5N 83.3W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 27.5N 85.5W 70KT

120 Hour: 29.0N 88.0W 100KT Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi/Kozich/Ortt

12 Hour: 24.1N 77.1W 40KT

24 Hour: 24.9N 78.4W 50KT

36 Hour: 25.5N 79.7W 65KT

48 Hour: 25.8N 81.0W 60KT (inland)

72 Hour: 26.3N 84.0W 45KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 27.3N 86.0W 70KT

120 Hour: 28.5N 88.0W 100KT Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 25.3N 77.7W 45KT

24 Hour: 26.1N 78.9W 55KT

36 Hour: 26.4N 80.2W 65KT (near the coast)

48 Hour: 26.5N 81.6W 40KT (inland)

72 Hour: 27.5N 84.0W 45KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 28.5N 86.0W 65KT

120 Hour: 30.0N 88.0W 95KT (near north Gulf Coast) Next Forecast: 2100 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 25.8N 78.1W 50KT

24 Hour: 26.2N 79.5W 70KT

36 Hour: 26.3N 80.6W 60KT (inland)

48 Hour: 26.3N 81.9W 40KT (inland)

72 Hour: 27.0N 84.1W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 28.5N 86.5W 75KT

120 Hour: 30.5N 87.5W 95KT (near north Gulf Coast) Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 26.3N 78.9W 55KT

24 Hour: 26.4N 80.1W 70KT (at the coast)

36 Hour: 26.4N 81.3W 50KT (inland)

48 Hour: 26.4N 82.5W 35KT (inland)

72 Hour: 27.2N 85.0W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 28.7N 86.5W 75KT

120 Hour: 31.0N 87.0W 95KT (inland) Next Forecast: 0900 UTC Forecaster: Ortt b>1500 UTC 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #6 This is an independent product. Satellite and WSR-88D Miami radar shows that Katrina continues to become better organized this morning. An eyewall feature is becoming better established and the western half of the circulation that once was fairly dry is filling in on radar. Katrina will likely intensify to a category one hurricane prior to landfall on South Florida, this is above the SHIPS guidance but below the GFDL. Katrina has slowed in forward speed the best estimate is 270/5, this motion may slow even more and a possible SW motion may occur prior to or during the landfall on S. Florida. Much of the guidance calls for a due west motion across the pennisula, with the GFDL insisting on a SW jump with landfall in the northern Keys. This forecast will call for a just south of west motion prior to landfall, with landfall in about 12 hours in S. Florida. Katrina will weaken over Florida and re-emerge into the GOM in 36 hours or so, therafter a more WNW-NW motion and eventually north motion is likely due to an oncoming trough over the Central U.S. by that time. This track forecast has shifted right of the previous one in the Gulf ofd Mexico. Initial: (0000 UTC): 26.2N 79.0W 55KT

12 Hour: 26.0N 80.0W 75KT (at the coast)

24 Hour: 26.1N 81.0W 50KT (inland)

36 Hour: 26.2N 82.0W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)

48 Hour: 26.3N 83.0W 60KT (Gulf of Mexico)

72 Hour: 27.8N 84.8W 75KT (Gulf of Mexico)

96 Hour: 29.8N 85.5W 95KT (near the coast)

120 Hour: 33.0N 84.0W 50KT (inland) Next Forecast: 2100 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi

12 Hour: 26.2N 80.5W 55KT (inland)

24 Hour: 26.2N 81.9W 35KT (near West Coast)

36 Hour: 26.4N 83.3W 45KT (GOM)

48 Hour: 26.9N 84.8W 60KT

72 Hour: 28.0N 86.5W 80KT

96 Hour: 30.5N 86.5W 95KT (at coast)

120 Hour: 33.5N 85.0W 25KT (inland) Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 25.7N 81.5W 65KT (near west coast)

24 Hour: 25.6N 82.7W 70KT (GOM)

36 Hour: 25.5N 84.0W 75KT (GOM)

48 Hour: 25.9N 85.1W 85KT

72 Hour: 28.0N 86.5W 100KT

96 Hour: 31.0N 86.0W 80KT (just inland)

120 Hour: 35.5N 84.0W 25KT (inland) Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi

12 Hour: 25.4N 83.0W 70KT

24 Hour: 25.4N 84.5W 80KT

36 Hour: 25.8N 86.0W 90KT

48 Hour: 26.8N 86.8W 100KT

72 Hour: 30.5N 86.8W 110KT (at the coast)

96 Hour: 34.5N 85.5W 30KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 25.2N 83.3W 80KT

24 Hour: 25.2N 84.6W 95KT

36 Hour: 25.6N 86.0W 110KT (GOM)

48 Hour: 26.3N 87.1W 120KT

72 Hour: 30.5N 87.4W 110KT (at the coast)

96 Hour: 35.0N 85.5W 30KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 2100 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 24.6N 84.6W 105KT

24 Hour: 24.7N 85.9W 115KT

36 Hour: 25.1N 87.0W 120KT (GOM)

48 Hour: 26.0N 88.3W 125KT

72 Hour: 30.5N 89.7W 120KT (inland)

96 Hour: 35.5N 87.5W 30KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 24.7N 85.6W 110KT

24 Hour: 25.0N 87.0W 115KT

36 Hour: 25.8N 88.2W 120KT

48 Hour: 27.0N 89.2W 125KT

72 Hour: 31.0N 89.5W 100KT (inland)

96 Hour: 36.0N 86.8W 25KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 24.7N 86.0W 110KT

24 Hour: 25.6N 87.6W 115KT

36 Hour: 26.9N 89.1W 120KT

48 Hour: 28.7N 89.8W 125KT

72 Hour: 33.2N 89.4W 100KT (inland)

96 Hour: 37.0N 86.0W 25KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 2100 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi

12 Hour: 24.7N 86.5W 120KT

24 Hour: 25.3N 87.6W 125KT

36 Hour: 26.0N 88.8W 125KT

48 Hour: 27.2N 89.7W 125KT

72 Hour: 31.5N 89.7W 80KT (inland)

96 Hour: 36.0N 86.8W 25KT (inland)

Remnant Low Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 25.6N 87.2W 120KT

24 Hour: 26.8N 88.5W 125KT

36 Hour: 28.3N 89.5W 125KT

48 Hour: 30.5N 89.6W 100KT (inland)

72 Hour: 36.0N 87.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC Forecaster: Kozich/Ortt

12 Hour: 26.0N 88.3W 135KT

24 Hour: 28.1N 89.6W 140KT

36 Hour: 30.4N 89.7W 120KT (inland)

48 Hour: 33.0N 89.0W 60KT (inland)

72 Hour: 38.5N 85.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 27.3N 89.0W 145KT

24 Hour: 29.3N 89.7W 140KT (inland)

36 Hour: 31.7N 89.7W 120KT (inland)

48 Hour: 34.5N 87.5W 40KT (inland)

72 Hour: 40.0N 82.5W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC Forecaster: Ortt

12 Hour: 28.5N 89.5W 145KT

24 Hour: 31.0N 89.7W 90KT (inland)

36 Hour: 34.0N 87.7W 45KT (inland)

48 Hour: 37.0N 85.0W 20KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Ortt Back to Archives