2100 UTC 8/23/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product.

Recon data indicates that the remnants of Tropical Depression 10 have reformed into a tropical depression. However, the system is being classified as Tropical Depression 12 officially.

Track guidance, except for the GFS which we have chosen to disregard due to very poor performances in similar situations last year with Frances and Jeanne, indicates a track mainly to the NW, followed by a westerly turn under the influence of a ridge of high-pressure to the north. The forecast track closely followed the Canadian, UKMET, and NOGAPS solutions, and is a little left of the GFDL. The 5 day forecast does bring the system close to the northern Gulf Coast; however, there are many days to address the motion once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Recon flight level winds were 39KT, which puts the depression very close to tropical storm intensity. An upper low located to the north of the system is providing some shear to the northern semi-circle, which should prevent any rapid intensification from occurring. However, the UKMET has been showing a large ridge of high-pressure, currently located over the SE USA to move to the west and provide much more favorable conditions for this system, which should allow for significant intensification before Florida, and again in the Gulf of Mexico. SHIPS, based off of the BAMM track, brings the system close to hurricane intensity prior to landfall. To err on the side of caution, a 65KT landfall intensity in Florida is forecast. Something that needs to be addressed about the lack of intensification depicted by the model after 96 hours. The GFS has the storm too far to the east, placing the real storm in the model outflow. Instead, we are trending toward the Canadian/UKMET solutions for significant intensification in the GOM.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 22.9N 75.2W 30KT
12 Hour: 23.9N 76.5W 35KT
24 Hour: 24.9N 77.9W 45KT
36 Hour: 25.6N 79.0W 55KT
48 Hour: 25.9N 80.3W 65KT (inland)
72 Hour: 26.5N 83.3W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 27.5N 85.5W 70KT
120 Hour: 29.0N 88.0W 100KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi/Kozich/Ortt

0300 UTC 8/24/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST #2

This is an independent product.

Tropical Depression 12 is basically on the previous forecast track and there has been little change to the synoptic reasoning. All guidance, except for the GFS, which I will not consider for this forecast, brings the system WNW to NW then turns the system to the west, into South Florida due to a ridge of high-pressure to the north. WV imagery and 500mb obs show that the ridge is in tact; thus, this forecast in the short term is of a high confidence. The latter parts of the forecast period are slightly lower confidence since the CONU consensus is out of sorts, thanks to GFS not really bringing the storm inland. A left outlier is the UKMET, which now brings the storm toward the Texas/Mexican Border.

Initial intensity remains 30KT. Satellite estimates have caught up with the recon values. Convection, while scattered in nature, is starting to congregate near the center, a sign of intensification. There is no real change from the previous forecast, except to indicate slightly more weakening while over Florida. The previous forecast indicated 15-20KT, the new forecast indicates about 25-30KT of weakening, which given the slow motion of the system, is more realistic. This is not indicated in the table, as the system should be offshore and already starting to re-intensify when the 72 hour forecast point verifies. Since conditions are expected to remain favorable in the GOM, 100KT will remain the 120 hour forecast.

Note: This system was not forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, but instead, not until tomorrow morning. The fact that TD 12 has not become a storm yet, does not lessen the chances of a hurricane landfall in Miami, as it is behaving exactly as forecast.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 23.3N 75.8W 30KT
12 Hour: 24.1N 77.1W 40KT
24 Hour: 24.9N 78.4W 50KT
36 Hour: 25.5N 79.7W 65KT
48 Hour: 25.8N 81.0W 60KT (inland)
72 Hour: 26.3N 84.0W 45KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 27.3N 86.0W 70KT
120 Hour: 28.5N 88.0W 100KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/24/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #3

This is an independent product.

Recon found 48KT winds at flight level and Dvorak estimates are of tropical storm intensity; thus, Tropical Depression 12 has become Tropical Storm Katrina. Initial intensity is 35KT.

WV imagery shows an upper low to the west, which is imparting a more northerly component to the motion than anticipated last evening. RSMAS MM5 solutions also indicate a more northerly landfall location. The forecast is shifted somewhat right of previous. A west turn is still anticipated just before reaching Florida. Guidance has also shifted right in the GOM, as does this forecast, though not as far as the CONU, since GFS is a part of that consensus.

The UL that had been shearing Katrina is weakening and moving away and anti-cyclonic flow is becoming better established. Will continue the trend of forecasting a hurricane by landfall, consistent with the GFDL and MM5 Canadian.

Initial: (1200 UTC): 24.4N 76.4W 35KT
12 Hour: 25.3N 77.7W 45KT
24 Hour: 26.1N 78.9W 55KT
36 Hour: 26.4N 80.2W 65KT (near the coast)
48 Hour: 26.5N 81.6W 40KT (inland)
72 Hour: 27.5N 84.0W 45KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 28.5N 86.0W 65KT
120 Hour: 30.0N 88.0W 95KT (near north Gulf Coast)

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 8/24/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #4

This is an independent product.

Katrina continues to slowly organize. The storm is more symmetric and the outflow is better established. However, satellite imagery does not indicate a tight inner-core, nor does the recon report any significantly stronger winds. However, since the overall structure is rapidly improving, and conditions are expected to remain very favorable for development, we should see continued intensification. If an inner-core forms, rapid intensification is likely. This forecast now indicates a 70KT landfall, instead of 65KT. It should be noted that the GFDL indicates that Katrinawould be a major hurricane prior to impacting Florida. Since there is no core now, this is not indicated.

The track reasoning is unchanged. The weakness to the north is lifting out and the ridge should build, forcing a more westerly track. Once in the GOM, a second trough should erode the ridge, causing a more northerly track. This forecast is slightly right of the previous to be in better agreement with the non-GFS consensus.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 25.2N 76.9W 40KT
12 Hour: 25.8N 78.1W 50KT
24 Hour: 26.2N 79.5W 70KT
36 Hour: 26.3N 80.6W 60KT (inland)
48 Hour: 26.3N 81.9W 40KT (inland)
72 Hour: 27.0N 84.1W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 28.5N 86.5W 75KT
120 Hour: 30.5N 87.5W 95KT (near north Gulf Coast)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #5

This is an independent product.

Satellite, radar, and aircraft indicates a slow organization of Katrina. Last flight level winds, the highest of the day, were about 52KT. Initial intensity is set to 45KT based upon this, plus the improved radar and satellite signatures. The only thing that seems to be inhibiting development is a flattening of the northern outflow. The inner-core seems to be a bit better defined this evening as convection has fired right over the center. For now, I will keep the previous landfall intensity forecast of 70KT, though the system will be monitored closely overnight and if necessary, this will be increased in the morning. Re-intensification is still expected in the Gulf. GC landfall would be more intense than indicated here if Katrina makes first landfall greater than 70KT.

Synoptic reasoning is unchanged and I prefer to wait for 0Z guidance to make a significant change to the track forecast. Only a very slight right shift is indicated since Katrina is slightly right of the previous track, though the west turn seems to be underway. A slow track is indicated, though not as slow as GFDL. It is possible that a WSW track may occur as Katrina goes under the influence of the ridge, though this is not reflected in this track at this time.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 26.0N 77.7W 45KT
12 Hour: 26.3N 78.9W 55KT
24 Hour: 26.4N 80.1W 70KT (at the coast)
36 Hour: 26.4N 81.3W 50KT (inland)
48 Hour: 26.4N 82.5W 35KT (inland)
72 Hour: 27.2N 85.0W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 28.7N 86.5W 75KT
120 Hour: 31.0N 87.0W 95KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

b>1500 UTC 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #6

This is an independent product.

Satellite and WSR-88D Miami radar shows that Katrina continues to become better organized this morning. An eyewall feature is becoming better established and the western half of the circulation that once was fairly dry is filling in on radar. Katrina will likely intensify to a category one hurricane prior to landfall on South Florida, this is above the SHIPS guidance but below the GFDL.

Katrina has slowed in forward speed the best estimate is 270/5, this motion may slow even more and a possible SW motion may occur prior to or during the landfall on S. Florida. Much of the guidance calls for a due west motion across the pennisula, with the GFDL insisting on a SW jump with landfall in the northern Keys. This forecast will call for a just south of west motion prior to landfall, with landfall in about 12 hours in S. Florida. Katrina will weaken over Florida and re-emerge into the GOM in 36 hours or so, therafter a more WNW-NW motion and eventually north motion is likely due to an oncoming trough over the Central U.S. by that time. This track forecast has shifted right of the previous one in the Gulf ofd Mexico.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 26.2N 79.0W 55KT
12 Hour: 26.0N 80.0W 75KT (at the coast)
24 Hour: 26.1N 81.0W 50KT (inland)
36 Hour: 26.2N 82.0W 50KT (Gulf of Mexico)
48 Hour: 26.3N 83.0W 60KT (Gulf of Mexico)
72 Hour: 27.8N 84.8W 75KT (Gulf of Mexico)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 29.8N 85.5W 95KT (near the coast)
120 Hour: 33.0N 84.0W 50KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

2100 UTC 8/25/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #7

This is an independent product.

SFMR measurements indicate that Katrina has winds of at least 70KT, which is the initial intensity, making this a hurricane. Only slight additional intensification seems likely before landfall as the eye is about to cross the coast.

Track guidance has shifted somewhat left this afternoon. GFDL is as far as the AL/MS border. The forecast key is the evolution of the trough that is expected to pick up the storm. UKMET now indicates that the trough will miss the storm and move somewhere near Louisiana. This forecast is shifted slightly left of the previous track, right of CONU as I do not make drastic shifts from forecast to forecast. if this were the first forecast, I may have went slightly further left.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 26.2N 79.5W 70KT
12 Hour: 26.2N 80.5W 55KT (inland)
24 Hour: 26.2N 81.9W 35KT (near West Coast)
36 Hour: 26.4N 83.3W 45KT (GOM)
48 Hour: 26.9N 84.8W 60KT
72 Hour: 28.0N 86.5W 80KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 30.5N 86.5W 95KT (at coast)
120 Hour: 33.5N 85.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/26/2005 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST #8

This is an independent product.

Katrina made landfall in North Miami Beach with 75 KT winds earlier this evening. Despite being on land for over 2 hours, Katrina shows no signs of weakening, the latest pressure reported was 984mb at the NHC in West Miami. Katrina continues to move just south of due west, based upon this track, it should be back over the water in 8-12 hours and re-intensification in the GOM is expected. The SHIPS model now brings Katrina to a 76 KT hurricane in the Gulf, and the GFDL bringing Katrina to a 103 KT major hurricane in 3 days. This intensity forecast follows the GFDL solution.

Katrina has tracked SW over the last several hours, this was very well forecasted by the MM5 model run off the GFDL initial conditions. Track reasoning remains unchanged, Kartina will likely track northwest in the Gulf in response to a trough digging in the U.S. midwest in 2-3 days this track forecast is an update of the previous one.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 25.9N 80.3W 70KT
12 Hour: 25.7N 81.5W 65KT (near west coast)
24 Hour: 25.6N 82.7W 70KT (GOM)
36 Hour: 25.5N 84.0W 75KT (GOM)
48 Hour: 25.9N 85.1W 85KT
72 Hour: 28.0N 86.5W 100KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 31.0N 86.0W 80KT (just inland)
120 Hour: 35.5N 84.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0900 UTC 8/26/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #9

This is an independent product.

Latest Doppler radar data indicates that Katrina still has hurricane force winds, at least aloft. While Katrina may have weakened just below hurricane intensity, to avoid playing musical classifications, I will keep the system as a 65KT hurricane. Latest satellite imagery indicates almost no change in organization after passing across the extreme southern part of the Florida Peninsula.

The track the last 6 hours was significantly faster and left of the previous track. 0Z observations indicate that the ridge to the north was initialized by the models too small. The expanse of 5940 meter 500mb heights is about two to three times the size indicated by both the UKMET and GFS. This likely explains the unexpected acceleration to the SW. The model consensus has shifted to the left again; however, it may not be enough of a shift. I am making a slight left shift with this forecast, close to the CONU landfall location; however, I would not be the least bit surprised to see the track go farther left of what is indicated here.

Conditions, appear favorable for intensification into a major hurricane and this is indicated in this forecast. 110KT is now the landfall intensity since Katrina has remained as well organized as it has while crossing Florida. It is possible that Katrina could become a category 4 hurricane, then weaken to a category 3 hurricane at landfall, as many hurricanes have recently done in the north Gulf as this region has a very low total heat content.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 25.4N 81.3W 65KT
12 Hour: 25.4N 83.0W 70KT
24 Hour: 25.4N 84.5W 80KT
36 Hour: 25.8N 86.0W 90KT
48 Hour: 26.8N 86.8W 100KT
72 Hour: 30.5N 86.8W 110KT (at the coast)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 34.5N 85.5W 30KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/26/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #10

This is an independent product.

Katrina is very well-organized on satellite imagery and Doppler radar indicates that the area of hurricane force winds are expanding. Based upon this, maximum winds are increased to 70KT. Conditions are very favorable for development. Until it reaches the northern Gulf, there seems to be nothing to cause the storm to weaken. Therefore, peak intensity is now raised to 120KT, category 4 hurricane.

Guidance has shifted to the left. The 0Z guidance was poorly initialized as the ridge was too small. Guidance, including the RSMAS MM5 models seems to be converging on a final landfall near the Florida/Alabama Border. If the ridge remains in tact longer than expected by the guidance, then the hurricane could make it as far west as indicated by the GFDN and NOGAPS models, both of which bring the storm into Louisiana, near New Orleans. I am again making a slight left shift in the forecast track, though not as far as I would like to go. It is best to adjust the forecast track slowly, as the guidance did shift to New Orleans during Ivan, only to swing back.

Initial: (1200 UTC): 25.2N 81.9W 70KT
12 Hour: 25.2N 83.3W 80KT
24 Hour: 25.2N 84.6W 95KT
36 Hour: 25.6N 86.0W 110KT (GOM)
48 Hour: 26.3N 87.1W 120KT
72 Hour: 30.5N 87.4W 110KT (at the coast)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 35.0N 85.5W 30KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/27/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #11

This is an independent product.

All track guidance has made a significant shift to the left, indicating more of a threat to the greater New Orleans area. Todays left of forecast motion, plus the ridge remaining in tact have caused this left shift. The trough should still capture it, which is why the northward turn is depicted. I would have shfited even farther left; however, a forecast cycle during Hurricane Ivan showed similar results, only to switch back to the right on the next run.

Latest IR images show the formation of an eye; thus, the winds are being increased to 90KT. There is nothing to prevent this from obtaining category 4 status. In fact, the system, on this track, will be crossing over an eddy just prior to impacting Louisiana. 125KT is now the landfall intensity. It is possible given the favorable conditions, that Katrina could become a category 5 hurricane. Landfall in this location should negate any negative infulence of low heat content in the northern GOM as that it mainly located at a latitude north of Louisiana.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 24.7N 83.3W 90KT
12 Hour: 24.6N 84.6W 105KT
24 Hour: 24.7N 85.9W 115KT
36 Hour: 25.1N 87.0W 120KT (GOM)
48 Hour: 26.0N 88.3W 125KT
72 Hour: 30.5N 89.7W 120KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 35.5N 87.5W 30KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 8/27/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #12

This is an independent product.

Models have shifted slightly to the right this morning, in very good agreement with the previous forecast track of a landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi. GFS seems to have initialized the high better this morning. The high seems to be shifting ever so slightly west, which should soon allow for the weakness dropping across Nebraska to begin turning the system toward the coast. This track is similar to the previous.

Recon just reported 950mb and 104KT at flight level. Maximum winds are 95KT based upon the information. Conditions are expected to remain favorable until landfall. SHIPS, GFDL and GFDN are above 120KT at landfall; therefore, 125KT remains the landfall forecast

Initial: (0600 UTC): 24.6N 84.1W 95KT
12 Hour: 24.7N 85.6W 110KT
24 Hour: 25.0N 87.0W 115KT
36 Hour: 25.8N 88.2W 120KT
48 Hour: 27.0N 89.2W 125KT
72 Hour: 31.0N 89.5W 100KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 36.0N 86.8W 25KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/27/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #13

This is an independent product.

Hurricane Katrina has reached major hurricane staus.

Katrina is now a category 3 hurricane with winds of 100 KT. Katrina continues to track just south of due west in response to a strong ridge to the north. This ridge will move westward allowing for a trough over the central upper plains to dip down towards the southeast and induce a northward motion. Timing is a crucial factor, however, models are in better agreement this morning bringing a track towards the MS/LA border.

Recon just reported 940mb. Maximum winds are 100KT based upon the information. Conditions are expected to remain favorable until landfall. SHIPS and GFDN are above 120KT at landfall, while GFDL weakens Katrina just before landfall. This fintensity forecast is similar to the previous one, sugegsting that Katrina could be a category 4 storm prior to landfall on the Gulf coast.

Initial: (1200 UTC): 24.4N 84.6W 100KT
12 Hour: 24.7N 86.0W 110KT
24 Hour: 25.6N 87.6W 115KT
36 Hour: 26.9N 89.1W 120KT
48 Hour: 28.7N 89.8W 125KT
72 Hour: 33.2N 89.4W 100KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 37.0N 86.0W 25KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

2100 UTC 8/27/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #14

This is an independent product.

Katrina has performed a classic eye wall replacement cycle today. The pressure rose 10mb. However, the widns have not decreased at all, in fact, latest flight level obs from the 700mb level indicate flight level winds approaching 120KT. I will set the winds at 105KT based upon this.

The guidance continues to indicate a direct hit on New Orleans as does this forecast. Guidance is very clustered and there is no reason to go against the models.

While 125KT is the landfall forecast, in agreement with the majority of the guidance, a category 5 hurricane is quite possible as katrina is going to be crossing a warm eddy just prior to landfall, which contains the highest heat content of the entire basin, including the NW Caribbean.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 24.5N 85.3W 105KT
12 Hour: 24.7N 86.5W 120KT
24 Hour: 25.3N 87.6W 125KT
36 Hour: 26.0N 88.8W 125KT
48 Hour: 27.2N 89.7W 125KT
72 Hour: 31.5N 89.7W 80KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 36.0N 86.8W 25KT (inland)
Remnant Low

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 8/28/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #15

This is an independent product.

Not much change to the track guidance. Landfall is indicated near the center of New Orleans as a trough captures the storm and turns it to the north during the next 36 hours. Previous track was too slow.

The pressure continues to slowly fall as Katrina completes its eye wall replacement cycle. Guidance indicates that the environment will be even more favorable than previously anticipated. However, WV and G-IV data shows some dry air in the NW quad. Therefore, we will keep the landfall intensity at 125KT and not yet indicate category 5 at landfall, though this is quite possible due to the hurricanes upcoming passage over the very warm eddy.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 24.9N 85.9W 105KT
12 Hour: 25.6N 87.2W 120KT
24 Hour: 26.8N 88.5W 125KT
36 Hour: 28.3N 89.5W 125KT
48 Hour: 30.5N 89.6W 100KT (inland)
72 Hour: 36.0N 87.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Kozich/Ortt

0900 UTC 8/28/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #16

This is an independent product.

Katrina is nearing category 5 status. Latest recon winds were 137KT, equating to 125 at the surface. Satellite imagery appears to be of a category 5 hurricane. Nearly all models forecast a category 5. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions seems to indicate a cat 5. Sadly, I do not have a choice. It is time to indicate this in the forecast.

Katrina appears to have taken on a classic annular shape, with little in the way of outer bands. It is a donut with a large eye, similar to Isabel. Therefore, barring any unexpected shear, it may maintain its intensity all of the way to the coastline.

Model consensus has also sped up, now indicating a landfall in a little more than 24 hours. It is becoming apparent that the ridge north of the system is too strong to allow for any slowing. An acceleration is expected as the system is making landfall due to Katrina being captured by the weakness.

Initial: (0000 UTC): 25.2N 86.8W 125KT
12 Hour: 26.0N 88.3W 135KT
24 Hour: 28.1N 89.6W 140KT
36 Hour: 30.4N 89.7W 120KT (inland)
48 Hour: 33.0N 89.0W 60KT (inland)
72 Hour: 38.5N 85.0W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 8/28/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #17

This is an independent product.

Recon has reported 908mb with 153KT wind at flight level. Since the eye is large and the storm has yet to move over the warm eddy, there is still some room for further intensification. There may be some shear impacting the system as it makes landfall as the SW outflow is slightly restricted, so there is some chance of this weakening to cat 4. However, a cat 4 or 5 is going to devastate the coastline and to be safe, cat 5 is the landfall forecast. Significant weakening is not likely due to the annular structure of the hurricane.

All guidance indicates a landfall in New Orleans, as does this forecast.

Initial: (1200 UTC): 25.7N 87.7W 140KT
12 Hour: 27.3N 89.0W 145KT
24 Hour: 29.3N 89.7W 140KT (inland)
36 Hour: 31.7N 89.7W 120KT (inland)
48 Hour: 34.5N 87.5W 40KT (inland)
72 Hour: 40.0N 82.5W 25KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 8/28/2005 HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST #18

This is an independent product.

The pressure continues to fall and the hurricane continues to have a alrge eye as it crosses over the warm eddy. Latest H-Wind suggests that the winds have weakened slightly. Therefore, 145KT is the initial intensity and the landfall forecast.

Track remains unchanged. New Orleans is expected landfall location. The turn has begun and will continue. Slight increase in forward speed is expected.

Initial: (1800 UTC): 26.4N 88.7W 145KT
12 Hour: 28.5N 89.5W 145KT
24 Hour: 31.0N 89.7W 90KT (inland)
36 Hour: 34.0N 87.7W 45KT (inland)
48 Hour: 37.0N 85.0W 20KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

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