1500 UTC 7/10/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 FORECAST #1

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Is this July or September?... this is suppose to be vacation time.

Tropical Depression 5 seems to be on the verge of being upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. TD 5 is becoming better organized and has some distinct banding features based on satellite imagery. SHIPS and GFDL forecast intensification to TS strength in 12 hours and to hurricane strength in 60 and 72 hours, respectively. This intensity forecast is a blend of these two models.

TD 5 is being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, a general W becoming WNW motion is forecasted through 5 days. GFDL is fartherst north, while NOGAPS is farthest south, this forecast is close to the consensus but leaning a bit right. TD 5 is far from any major landmass, this forecast brings TD 5 into the Caribbean in 4-5 days.

Initial (1200 UTC): 10.2N 44.2W 30KT
12 Hour: 10.4N 46.6W 40KT
24 Hour: 10.9N 49.1W 45KT
36 Hour: 11.6N 51.6W 50KT
48 Hour: 12.6N 54.2W 55KT
72 Hour: 14.5N 59.3W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 16.6N 64.7W 70KT
120 Hour: 19.1N 69.6W 65KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 7/12/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #2

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The time travel experiment back to 2004 continues. Don't allow anyone to tell you time travel is not possible as we are experiencing it.

Tropical Depression 5 has showed enough organization to be upgraded to a tropical storm. Satellite estimates support tropical storm intensity and the evening QUIKSCAT pass shows an improved LLC with uncontaminated 40KT vectors. 40KT is the initial intensity based upon the QS. QS also showed that the LLC was farther north, closer to the deep convection. This requires a slight rightward shift to the track forecast this evening. Emily should move slow while under the influence of the trough to its north, but then accelerate once it moves past it in about 24 hours. This forecast is slightly faster than the previous and slightly left at the longer time periods as I do not see anything that will force the system much to the north at all. I would not be surprised if an additional leftward shift is needed at the next forecast.

With the LLC closer to the convection, intensification at a steady rate should occur. Conditions are quite favorable and the SAL is only watching the action from the sidelines. I have increased the intensity forecast to follow SHIPS. MM5 off of GFDL brings this to a hurricane in 36-48 hours, and this forecast is similar. I leveled it off, reluctantly at the longer periods to go with SHIPS, though since the GFS, and why am I not surprised, loses the cyclone after just 60 hours, I have no confidence in its shear forecasts. It would not at all surprise me if we have yet another hurricane going bonkers in the eastern Caribbean.

Initial (0000 UTC): 11.2N 46.4W 40KT
12 Hour: 11.6N 48.5W 45KT
24 Hour: 12.2N 50.6W 50KT
36 Hour: 12.9N 53.1W 60KT
48 Hour: 13.5N 56.2W 70KT
72 Hour: 14.6N 62.3W 80KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 16.3N 68.3W 85KT
120 Hour: 18.4N 73.7W 85KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/12/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #3

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Tropical Storm Emily's banding structure has improved and the latest QuikScat passes indicate wind vectors near 45 KT, so the initial intensity will be adjusted upwards to 45 KT. Emily is forecasted to become in a more favorable environment in the next 24 hours or so. GFDL and SHIPS strenghten Emily rather quickly to a hurricane, GFDL in 24 h and SHIPS in 36 h. Therafter these models are indicating on strenghtening Emily possibly to a major hurricane in the Caribbean. This forecast is more conservative in the latter period.

A large, strong subtropical ridge is forcing Emily westward at a faster pace than yesterday. Global models have shifted further left, in addition Emily is further south than previously forecasted. This track forecast is further left and faster than the previous one, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles in just over 36 hours and towards the vicinty of Jamaica in 96 hours.

Initial (1200 UTC): 11.0N 50.5W 45KT
12 Hour: 11.5N 53.4W 55KT
24 Hour: 12.1N 56.5W 65KT
36 Hour: 12.8N 59.7W 70KT
48 Hour: 13.7N 63.1W 75KT
72 Hour: 15.4N 69.9W 85KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 17.7N 76.4W 95KT
120 Hour: 20.3N 82.8W 105KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 7/12/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #4

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The time travel experiment back to 2004 continues. Don't allow anyone to tell you time travel is not possible as we are experiencing it.

Emily has struggled all day today, apparently from the SAL. The convection has become disorganized and appears as if the system may have lost its LLC and that there is just an MLC. Therefore, initial intensity is slightly lowered to 40KT All guidance still indicates significant intensification, though I feel they are not properly representing the SAL, or the obvious shear in the Caribbean. However, I am not prepared to go against the unanimous of SHIPS, GFDL, and MM5, so I will continue to forecast significant intensification, though less than indicated in the previous forecast. Will retain the recommended Hurricane Watch for the Islands, though for a reduced area in the event that this does intensify faster than expected.

Track has been south of the previous forecast; thus, requring a left adjustment. Have slowed the track down in the Caribbean in case the upper trough does have a greater than expected influence and some intensification. If the system remains weak or degenerates back into a wave, a much faster and further south track seems likely.

Initial (0000 UTC): 10.8N 53.7W 40KT
12 Hour: 10.8N 57.0W 45KT
24 Hour: 11.1N 60.3W 50KT
36 Hour: 11.4N 63.6W 55KT
48 Hour: 12.0N 66.7W 60KT
72 Hour: 13.6N 72.4W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 15.5N 77.5W 75KT
120 Hour: 17.4N 82.5W 85KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/13/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #5

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Emily continues to be struggling. Recon found 40 KT winds and a 1003 mb pressure, based upon these numbers and the assymetric structure of Emily I will keep the initial intensity at 40 KT. Emily has a fair amount of convection especially on the southern side of the sytsem which is very close to South America. SHIPS, GFDL, and MM5 insist on intensifying Emily rather rapidly to a hurricane in 36 hours and a major hurricane in a few days. I am reluctant about forecasting a major hurricane at this point, since we have not seem Emily intensify for 24 h and these models indicated that Emily would be at hurricane status by now.

Track reasoning remains unchanged. A strong subtropical high is steering Emily westward. A general W becoming more WNW track is forecasted, bringing Emily into the Caribbean. Global models are coming into agreement and continue to shift further southward. This forecast is just south of the consensus, taking Emily south of most of the Caribbean islands through the forecast period. This track forecast is slightly right due to the further northward center and a bit faster than the previous one.

Initial (1200 UTC): 11.2N 57.4W 40KT
12 Hour: 11.6N 60.6W 45KT
24 Hour: 12.1N 63.8W 50KT
36 Hour: 12.7N 66.9W 55KT
48 Hour: 13.3N 69.9W 60KT
72 Hour: 14.8N 75.8W 65KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 16.8N 81.8W 75KT
120 Hour: 18.8N 87.7W 85KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 7/14/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #6

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Recon found 79KT in the north quad, which equates to 63KT at the surface, just shy of hurricane force, though the system may be called a hurricane at the 11 p.m. update. Conditions in the E Carib have become more favorable as the upper high has expanded this afternoon; therefore, continued intensification is likely, in good agreement with the guidance. The rate is leveled off after 24-36 hours due to the possibility of shear as evidenced by WV.

Track guidance has shifted to the north. Both the 12Z MM5 runs off of the GFS and GFDL have Emily in the central GOM in 5 days. I am not prepared to shift this much yet, though this track is right of before and in agreement with the CONU. The ridge does not appear to be quite as strong as previous thought.

Initial (0000 UTC): 11.6N 60.4W 60KT
12 Hour: 12.2N 63.5W 70KT
24 Hour: 12.8N 66.6W 80KT
36 Hour: 13.6N 69.6W 85KT
48 Hour: 14.4N 72.6W 85KT
72 Hour: 16.6N 78.4W 90KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 18.8N 84.1W 95KT
120 Hour: 21.3N 89.2W 70KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/14/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #7

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Emily continues to rapidly strenghten. Last night Emily earned the title of a hurricane and she does not appear to be stopping there. Recon found a minimum pressure of 980 mb, which is an 11 mb drop, indicative of a rapid intensification period. The initial intensity is held at 80 KT since higher winds were not yet found, however, wind increase follows pressure falls. The 12 h forecast is a 15 KT increase due to this intensifcation that seems likely, this is consistent with the GFDL forecast. SHIPS intensifies Emily slower but brings winds to a 100 KT in 48 hours, while GFDL insists on making Emily a near major hurricane in 36 hours.

Track reasoning remains unchanged, but some of the latest guidance has shifted slightly right. The MM5 12 Z run yesterday and the 00Z run today is right of much of the dynamical guidance, near the UKMET solution, while GFS and NOGAPS are the farthest left. I will shift the track a bit right of the previous forecast because of some of the new guidance, indicating that the ridge is not quite as strong as previously thought.

Initial (1200 UTC): 12.4N 63.1W 80KT
12 Hour: 13.2N 66.2 95KT
24 Hour: 14.0N 69.2W 100KT
36 Hour: 15.1N 72.1W 100KT
48 Hour: 16.2N 75.0W 105KT
72 Hour: 18.6N 80.7W 110KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 21.1N 86.2W 105KT (near the Yucatan Pennisula)
120 Hour: 23.8N 91.6W 110 KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 7/15/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #8

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Recon has found a lowering pressure. Initial intensity will remain 110KT, as indicated in the 8 p.m. update until recon completes their mission.

12Z MM5 runs off of GFS and GFDL have shifted to the south somewhat, while the latest CONU guidance has shifted north. I have went more with the MM5 models for now since Emily has shifted from a 285 heading to a 280 heading this evening. This shift is only slight, though this new forecast is much faster than the previous and the forward speed is in good agreement with the guidance.

MM5 off of GFDL and SHIPS both indicate weakening as the storm approaches the Yucatan. Both the IR and WV satellite loops show that there has been a serious restriction to the west outflow, as well as cloud streaking toward the storm from the west. This is indicative of shear from a large UL in the NW Caribbean. Regardless as to what GFS has been saying, Emily is likely to encounter some shear, though the UL is also moving to the west; therefore, the increase in shear should be slow. That said, I am going to forecast weakening to 100KT at the time of Yucatan landfall. With the inner-core being so small, there is a chance that this may be a generous forecast. Some re-intensification is forecast in the GOM, though SHIPS indicates continued slow weakening. The main reason is that Emily will be coming back into gradient balance after moving over the Yucatan; thus, the winds should increase some.

Initial (0000 UTC): 13.3N 66.7W 110KT
12 Hour: 14.0N 70.1W 110KT
24 Hour: 14.9N 73.5W 105KT
36 Hour: 15.8N 76.7W 105KT
48 Hour: 17.0N 79.8W 100KT
72 Hour: 19.3N 85.9W 100KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 21.5N 91.5W 70KT (crossed Yucatan)
120 Hour: 24.0N 96.5W 85KT

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/15/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #9

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Emily strenghtened to a category 4 hurricane overnight, but it is hoped and believed that it's intensity has peaked. Nearly all of the intensity guidance indicates a steady state to weakening storm, this includes GFDL, SHIPS, and MM5. Emily's outflow is impressive on the northern and eastern sides, but seems restricted on the western side of the circulation. In addition, Emily's structure has changed dramatically over the past 6-12 hours or so. Emily has become a much largee circulation with much more disorganization. Very favorable oceanic conditions are ahead of Emily, but only marginal atmospheric conditions. This forecast calls for a steady state/slight weakening trend as the system heads towards the Yucatan Pennisula.

Models have shifted left and right over time. The general consensus is towards Jamaica and through the Yucatan channel. However, I am not conviced of shifting back to the right in the early stages as Emily has not turned northward enough yet. This track forecasts is similar to the last one and consistent with the MM5 models.

Initial (1200 UTC): 14.2N 70.1W 115KT
12 Hour: 15.0N 73.1W 110KT
24 Hour: 15.9N 76.1W 105KT
36 Hour: 16.8N 79.0W 105KT
48 Hour: 17.8N 81.9W 100KT
72 Hour: 20.2N 87.9W 85KT (just inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 23.0N 93.7W 85KT (crossed Yucatan)
120 Hour: 25.8N 99.4W 60KT (inland TX/Mexico)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 7/16/2005 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST #10

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Big difference from this morning! Satellite imagery shows a very healthy hurricane with the eye very well defined and the outflow much better established. Recon has reported a much lower pressure and max 700mb winds of 113KT. Therefore, 105KT is the initial intensity.

12Z MM5 runs off of both the GFS and GFDL have indicated a final landfall in Texas. However, the 0Z CONU indicates a landfall well south of Texas. This though is likely due to yet another GFS flip flop and is based off of the 18Z run, which is not initialized with the same amount of data as is the 12Z run. I have not went nearly as far south of the CONU now. I will wait for the 0Z guidance before making a drastic shift. On WV, I see nothing that would turn Emily toward the central and upper Texas coast, which is where the MM5 off of 12Z GFS indicates a landfall. Plus, this model has been well right of reality; thus, I am discounting it completely for now. This new track is slightly left of before. The reason for the north of due west track is the upper low. If this moves out of the way faster than expected, there will be less of a southerly component to the mean steering flow and the track would be slightly left of this forecast track.

With the outflow pattern better established, we can see some further intensification. SHIPS still weakens the storm, though for the longest time it intensified it at times when it should have been weakening it. What I will do is increase the intensity to 115KT in 24 hours, upper cat 3, and maintain this until landfall. After weakening about 2.5 categories over the Yucatan, I will allow for some re-intensification in the Gulf of Mexico, primarily as the storm gets back into gradient balance. Guidance does not indicate much , if any GOM intensification, though SHIPS does not factor gradient balance into the equation.

Initial (0000 UTC): 14.9N 76.4W 105KT
12 Hour: 15.7N 76.4W 110KT
24 Hour: 16.5N 79.4W 115KT
36 Hour: 17.6N 82.3W 115KT
48 Hour: 19.0N 85.1W 115KT
72 Hour: 21.5N 90.2W 75KT (Across Yucatan)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 23.6N 95.4W 85KT (crossed Yucatan)
120 Hour: 25.2N 100.7W 45KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/16/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #11

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0Z guidance has showed little change from before, with it being clustered just south of the Texas/Mexican Border for a final landfall. Before then, we have Jamaica, the Caymans, and the Yucatan to contend with. Emily is on the forecast track from 6 hours ago. Model consensus for Yucatan landfall has shifted slightly south, with more of a northward component to the track in the GOM, probably due to the UL to the west. I have went with this scenario. 0Z MM5, which has only completed 36 hours, is even farther left, though its already too far left.

Winds are set to 115KT and conditions do favor some further intensification. The shear seems to have moved to the west with the UL. One thing that could hinder intensification is that Emily is prone to EWRC's. These are very difficult to forecast; thus, fluctuations in intensity are depicted in the intensity forecast. The timing of these may be off as they are currently next to impossible to forecast. How much Emily weakens while over the Yucatan depends upon what stage of an EWRC the hurricane is at. if its the back-side, we could see a 3-4 category weakening, as Gilbert experienced, while if its on the front, the weakening would be less. Since this is not knows, I went with the standard 3 category weakening for a trip across land of this size. Since Emily is well-organized, I am allowing for slightly more intensification in the GOM than previously indicated. 95KT is now the final landfall intensity, up from 90 6 hours earlier.

Initial (0600 UTC): 15.3N 75.0W 115KT
12 Hour: 16.2N 78.2W 125KT
24 Hour: 17.0N 81.2W 120KT
36 Hour: 18.1N 84.1W 130KT
48 Hour: 19.2N 86.9W 120KT
72 Hour: 21.7N 92.0W 80KT (Across Yucatan)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 24.2N 97.0W 95KT
120 Hour: 25.8N 102.3W 30KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

2100 UTC 7/16/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #12

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12Z guidance has also shifted to the south, except for the UKMET, which has shifted north. I have had to discount the GFS as the output is worthless. The hurricane is already right of the forecast track. Synoptic flow does not indicate a landfall in Belize and a second in Veracruz. WV does show some upper troughing in the GOM, especially the EGOM. This may be what has caused Emily to be ever so slightly right of the forecast track. Normally, these small changes are not significant; however, the slightest of north wobbles now means Cayman receives a repeat of Ivan. This forecast is shifted north of the previous one while in the Caribbean, bringing the storm closer to Cayman and second landfall over the Yucatan near Cozumel. Afterward, guidance builds the ridge back in, producing a track more to the west. Therefore, once in the GOM, this track is left of previous projections.

Recon found 151KT this afternoon, equating to 135KT at the surface. Recent satellite imagery shows that Emily may have become a category 5 hurricane now. Will go with a category 5 hurricane in 12 hours due to the recent trends and the environment being quite favorable for development. Afterwards, I weaken it back to a strong cat 4 due to the likelihood of an EWRC and maintain it as a cat 4 with 130KT winds while over the Yucatan, though it is possible that the Yucatan will receive a cat 5 hurricane. Since the forecast track is farther north, it wont spend as much time over land. Therefore, only a 2 category weakening is depicted here. MM% and GFD guidance shows re-intensification in the GOM. latest GFDN really likes the system and again blows it up into a cat 4/5 in the Gulf. I therefore, will forecast some re-intensification back to a borderline cat 3/4 at final landfall.

As an aside, this forecast track is eerily similar to that of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. The only difference is this time its occurring in JULY!

Initial (1800 UTC): 16.4N 78.0W 135KT
12 Hour: 17.5N 80.9W 140KT
24 Hour: 18.9N 83.7W 130KT
36 Hour: 20.3N 86.4W 130KT
48 Hour: 21.7N 89.1W 95KT (across Yucatan)
72 Hour: 23.3N 94.5W 110KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 24.3N 99.9W 65KT (inland)
120 Hour: 24.3N 105.4W 20KT (inland)

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/17/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #13

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G-IV data indicates that the GFS has too intense of a ridge to the north of Emily. 500mb heights from the dropsondes are about 5860m north of the Yucatan, while the GFS has heights of 5900 plus. Furthermore, the winds do not match. This is likely why GFS has been too far left today and dragging the GFDL and CONU consensus with it. as a result, I am shifting slightly to the north for the final landfall location, though landfall is still in Mexico. Little change has been made to the track in the Caribbean.

Recon this evening showed that the pressure rose from 929mb to 943mb. I will assume that the winds in the NE quadrant have decreased some; thus, initial intensity is being set at 125KT. The outflow has become better defined this morning and deep convection has become more symmetric around the core. therefore, I am retaining the landfall intensity of 130KT at Cozumel and 115KT on mainland Mexico.

Initial (0900 UTC): 17.7N 81.2W 125KT
12 Hour: 18.8N 84.1W 130KT
24 Hour: 20.2N 86.8W 130KT
36 Hour: 21.6N 89.5W 95KT (across Yucatan)
48 Hour: 23.0N 92.2W 105KT
72 Hour: 24.7N 97.9W 115KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 25.2N 103.3W 30KT (inland)
120 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/18/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #14

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The eye is about to cross the coast just south of Cozumel, bringing the most dangerous part to the resort island. Track is shifted slightly north in the Gulf as guidance has shifted to the north and WV shows that a short wave is dropping. 12Z GFS still initialized heights a little too high. Will wait for the 0Z data and MM5 runs before nudging the track into Texas. This track comes in about 50 miles south of Texas.

Recon indicates that Emily continues to weaken. Pressure was 951mb at synoptic time and since then, it has risen to 955mb. 134KT was found at flight level, though since then the sat signature has deteriorated. I will keep this for the synoptic time intensity as a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane. With the weakening trend, a cat 3 landfall with winds of about 110KT is likely on the Yucatan. The intensity forecast for the Gulf has been lowered by one category due to Emily making landfall one full category weaker than expected. I have retained major hurricane status at the final landfall, though this is mainly for continuity with previous forecasts. A UL is currently in the GOM and there is a system trying to develop in the EPAC. Both could provide shear and may not allow the atmosphere to support a major hurricane. That said, it is always better to be wrong on the high side than the low side.

Initial (0000 UTC): 19.6N 86.5W 115KT
12 Hour: 21.0N 89.2W 75KT (inland)
24 Hour: 22.4N 91.9W 75KT (GOM)
36 Hour: 23.9N 94.3W 85KT
48 Hour: 24.7N 97.1W 100KT (near the coast)
72 Hour: 25.3N 102.9W 30KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 0900 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0900 UTC 7/18/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #15

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Intensity at 6Z is estimated to have been 120KT. Recon found 142KT in the NE quad, which usually equates to 125KT. However, an H-Wind analysis showed that the reduction factor should be .85 not .9.

Model guidance is now in two camps. CMC, NOGAPS and MM5 off of the GFDL indicates a landfall either in Texas or near the border. GFS, UKMET, MM5 off of GFS and GFDL are near la Pesca. WV shows an upper low persisting in the BOC, which may impart a slightly more north track than GFS is indicating. However, I am not discounting GFS this morning as the ridge was initialized appropriately for a change. I have decided to go basically down the middle and go with a landfall about 50-70 miles south of TX/MX.

After weakening to a cat 2 while over land, re-intensification is expected in the GOM. This intensity forecast is increased from before since we had a 120KT landfall instead of a 110KT landfall.

Initial (0600 UTC): 20.3N 87.3W 120KT
12 Hour: 21.7N 90.0W 85KT
24 Hour: 23.2N 92.4W 90KT
36 Hour: 24.3N 95.2W 100KT
48 Hour: 25.1N 97.8W 110KT (near the coast)
72 Hour: 25.6N 103.1W 30KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/18/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #16

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Emily made landfall on the Yucatan Pennisula as a category 4 hurricane. It is just now making its way off the western coastline of the pennisula. Emily has weakened substanically over the Yucatan as expected. Emily winds are near 85 KT, a category 2 hurricane. However, Emily's structure is still very intact and strenghtening to a major hurricane appears likely.

Emily continues to move on a WNW (295 degree track). Model guidance is in very good agreement tracking Emily more westward towards northern Mexico, in just over 36 hours. This track forecast is down the middle of the guidance, not far (< 100 miles) from the TX border.

Initial (1200 UTC): 21.2N 88.9W 85KT
12 Hour: 22.6N 91.4W 95KT
24 Hour: 23.5N 94.0W 100KT
36 Hour: 24.4N 96.7W 100KT (near the coast)
48 Hour: 24.8N 99.4W 55KT (inland)
72 Hour: 25.2N 104.8W 20KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

2100 UTC 7/18/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #17

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What in the world is the GFS doing? It takes Emily due west for 12 hours, already placing it well left of reality. Upper air obs shows that the expected weakness to the north has materialized. The UL to the SW is weakening, though this has provided a slight rightward deflection. Since Emily is right of the previous track, I am making a very slight rightward shift from before, now bringing the storm within 50 miles of the TX/MX border. This is in fairly good agreement with global models not called GFS.

Recon has found that the winds are only of marginal hurricane status. However, satellite imagery shows that convection has started to return. The UL that was shearing the system has weakened and conditions appear to be very favorable for intensification. The previous landfall intensity forecast of 100KT is maintained, though not reflected since landfall is between forecast points.

Initial (1800 UTC): 22.0N 90.4W 65KT
12 Hour: 23.5N 92.8W 80KT
24 Hour: 24.8N 95.3W 90KT
36 Hour: 25.6N 98.1W 95KT (inland)
48 Hour: 26.2N 100.9W 40KT (inland)
72 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/19/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #18

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Recon recently found 90KT at 700mb in the NE quad. However, convection is not very deep. Therefore, initial intensity is set to 75KT instead of the usual 80. This intensification seems to be the hurricane coming back into gradient balance, more than a true intensification as the pressure has not fallen at all. It has been oscillating around 983mb all day. Cloud tops have recently warmed as well, and outflow has become restricted again in the southern quadrant. my better judgment tells me not to forecast a major hurricane; however, I will stick with the previous intensity forecast of 100KT at landfall to be on the safe side. The larger storm size means a greater impact for Texas.

Track reasoning is the same and this forecast is basically an update of the previous, so I will not repeat myself. Landfall just south of the border.

Initial (0000 UTC): 22.6N 91.5W 75KT
12 Hour: 24.1N 93.9W 85KT
24 Hour: 25.1N 96.5W 100KT
36 Hour: 25.9N 99.1W 70KT (inland)
48 Hour: 26.2N 102.0W 20KT (inland)
72 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

1500 UTC 7/19/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #19

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Emily is getting better organized based upon satellite imagery. The lastest recon report still shows no decrease in pressure, but due to the better structure of Emily I will set the initial intensity at 80 KT. Emily is in a ripe environment to strengthen before landfall. This intensity forecast is similar to the previous one suggesting that it is possible that Emily may reach strong category 2 status or possibly even a category 3. This is not shown in the forecast points since landfall is projected within 24 hours.

Track reasoning is the same, this forecast brings Emily inland just south of the Texas/Mexico border.

Initial (1200 UTC): 23.7N 94.0W 80KT
12 Hour: 24.8N 96.1W 90KT
24 Hour: 25.6N 98.1W 85KT (just inland)
36 Hour: 26.2N 99.1W 35KT (inland)
48 Hour: 26.2N 102.0W 20KT (inland)
72 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

2100 UTC 7/19/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #20

This is an independent product

Delayed due to major computer problems

At synoptic time, max flight level winds at 700mb were 94KT, yielding 85KT at surface. The eye has become much clearer. 110KT is the landfall forecast now, though this is due to a max of 25KT that can be depicted in a 24 hour period. Cat 4 is possible.

No change in track reasoning. Eye wall could come close to Brownsville

Initial (1800 UTC): 24.1N 95.1W 85KT
12 Hour: 25.1N 97.1W 110KT 110KT
24 Hour: 25.7N 99.2W 65KT
36 Hour: 25.9N 101.5W 20KT (inland)
48 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt

0300 UTC 7/20/2005 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST #21

This is an independent product

Delayed due to major computer problems

Emily has performed a cyclonic loop, though latest radar shows that she has resumed a WNW track. Guidance is in good agreement with a track about 50-80 miles south of the Texas/Mexican border. Due west does not appear likely as WV does show a weak weakness to the NW.

Waiting for new recon data to determine if Emily has become a cat 4 hurricane. The radar appearance suggests that there may be a secondary eye wall forming. Therefore, I am only going to depict a 5KT increase, though this would make Emily a cat 4 at landfall

Initial (0000 UTC): 24.4N 96.1W 110KT
12 Hour: 25.0N 97.8W 115KT (inland)KT
24 Hour: 25.5N 99.0W 50KT (inland)
36 Hour: 25.7N 102.1W 20KT (inland)
48 Hour: Dissipated

Barring anything unexpected, this is the final forecast of Emily

Forecaster: Ortt

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