1500 UTC 10/22/2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 FORECAST #1

This is an independent product

The area of convection south of Hispaniola has become organized enough to be called a tropical depression. This is the 25th T.D. of the year.

T.D. 25 is tracking to the WNW near 13 kts this motion is expected to continue with a turn to the N and then the NE as a cold front digs towards Wilma and eventually TD 25.

At this moment, there is limited guidance, the SHIPS model indicates intensifcation to a TS in 12 hours or so, this forecast follows that theme, making TD 25 a tropical storm in 12 hours and intenifying this TD to 50 kts before becoming extratropical.

Note: there are no graphics with this package.

Initial: 15.8N 67.5W 30KT
12 Hour: 17.1N 69.9W 35KT
24 Hour: 18.4N 71.8W 30KT
36 Hour: 20.1N 73.8W 40KT
48 Hour: 23.8N 75.0W 45KT
72 Hour: 32.0N 71.0W 50KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 40.0N 56.0W 40KT
120 Hour: 42.0N 40.0W 25KT (extra-tropical)

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

0300 UTC 10/22/2005 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST #2

This is an independent product

Well, the hurricane season of 2005 is one for the record books as we have reached the Greek alphabet. Tropical Storm Alpha is tracking swiftly to the NW approaching the island of Hispaniola. Alpha will likely struggle over this very mountainous island and will have to cross three mountain ranges above 1500 m. It is questionable if Alpha will survive, model guidance suggets that it will, but I am not very convinced, however, this forecast keeps Alpha a weak storm north of Hispaniola.

Alpha is tracking to the NW near 15 mph, this motion will continue with a turn to the N and an acceleration to the NE once the cold front appraoches Wilma and Alpha. Alpha is likely to become absorbed by the front in 4 days or so.

Initial: 17.4N 69.5W 35KT
12 Hour: 17.1N 71.0W 20KT (inland)
24 Hour: 18.4N 72.5W 25KT
36 Hour: 20.1N 71.5W 30KT
48 Hour: 23.8N 70.5W 35KT
72 Hour: 32.0N 58.0W 30KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 46.0N 47.0W 30KT
120 Hour: Extra-tropical

Next Forecast: 1500 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

1500 UTC 10/23/2005 TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST #3

This is an independent product

Well, the hurricane season of 2005 is one for the record books as we have reached the Greek alphabet. Tropical Storm Alpha has made landfall on the Dominican Republic a few hours ago and now is inland over the rugged terrain. Weakening is forecast to below Tropical Storm status in 12 hours due to the high topography and land influence, therafter vertical shear caused by Wilma and the approaching cold front will increase causing dissipation in about 2 days or so.

Alpha is tracking to the NW near 12 mph, this motion will continue with a turn to the N and an acceleration once the cold front approaches Wilma and Alpha. Alpha is likely to become absorbed by the front in 2 days or so.

Initial: 18.4N 71.4W 45KT (just inland)
12 Hour: 20.4N 72.2W 25KT (inland)
24 Hour: 23.4N 73.5W 25KT
36 Hour: 28.1N 73.5W 25KT
48 Hour: 37.0N 68.5W 25KT
72 Hour: Dissipated

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

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