Hurricane Ivan Archive

5 P.M. AST 9/2/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 UPDATE #1

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Yet another tropical cyclone has the potential to make landfall as a destructive hurricane; this time in the Lesser Antilles. Therefore, residents of the Lesser Antilles are encouraged to monitor the progress of this system very closely over the next few days.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 9 is located near 9.7N and 29.1W. This places the center about 2000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 20 m.p.h. This general track is expected for the next few days. On this track, this system would near the Lesser Antilles in the middle part of next week.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 30 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. Further intensification is expected during the next few days and this system ahs the potential to become a significant hurricane.

Note: Regular updates and forecasts will be issued as this is a potentially dangerous cyclone.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/2/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 UPDATE #2

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of this developing depression as this has the potential to become a significant hurricane as it nears the Lesser Antilles.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression 9 is located near 9.7N and 29.5W. This places the center about 1900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 15 m.p.h. This motion is expected to continue, with an acceleration, during the next few days, bringing this depression into the Caribbean in the middle portions of next week.

Maximum winds remain near 30 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. Significant intensification into a hurricane is expected prior to the system entering into the Caribbean Sea.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. AST 9/3/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #3

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ivan very closely as this has the potential to impact the region as a significant hurricane in the middle parts of next week.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 10.0N and 30.7W. This places the center about 1800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 15 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue at a faster rate of speed during the next few days, bringing the storm toward the Caribbean in the middle part of next week.

Maximum winds are now near 40 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1005mb. Significant intensification is possible over the next few days. Tropical Storm Ivan is currently expected to become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/3/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #4

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All residents of the Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone over the next few days as Ivan has the potential to become a significant hurricane before moving through the region and into the Caribbean.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.6N and 32.8W. This places the center about 1650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track should continue for the next several days, bringing the storm toward the Lesser Antilles in 4-5 days.

Maximum winds have increased to near 45 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. Significant intensification is expected over the next few days and Ivan is expected to become a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/3/2004 TROPICLA STORM IVAN UPDATE #5

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous cyclone very closely as Tropical Storm Ivan has the potential to move through the islands as a major hurricane in four to five days.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.1N and 32.4W. This places the center about 1600 miles ESE of the :Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the WSW near 20 m.p.h. A track more to the west, then slightly to the north of west is expected, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles on either Tuesday or Wednesday and then into the Caribbean.

Maximum winds have increased and are now near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Continued intensification is expected and Ivan is expected to become a hurricane sometime tomorrow and has the potential to become a major hurricane before moving through the Caribbean.

Next Update 11 P.M. (if no electricity due to Hurricane Frances, updates will be every 12 hours with no forecasts)

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/3/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #6

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone over the next few days as Tropical Storm Ivan has the potential to become a major hurricane and move into the Caribbean.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.1N and 36.0W. This places the center about 1500 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 19 m.p.h. A slightly north of due west track is expected over the next few days, bringing the system toward the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Maximum winds are near 50 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Significant intensification into a major hurricane is expected as the hurricane moves toward the Caribbean.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. AST 9/4/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #7

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Tropical Storm Ivan nears hurricane intensity. All residents of the Lesser Antilles need to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous tropical cyclone as Ivan has the potential to move through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.0N and 36.5W. This places the center about 1600 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. The motion is to the west near 18 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum winds have increased and are now near 65 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 994mb. Some further increase in intensity is expected over the next few days and Ivan is expected to impact the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/4/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #8

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ivan very closely over the next few days as Ivan has the potential to affect the region as a major hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 8.8N and 38.8W. This places the enter about 1500 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is to the west near 19 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next several days, bringing the storm into the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum winds remain near 65 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 994mb. Significant intensification is expected over the next few days. Ivan is expected to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours and has the potential to become a major hurricane before moving into the Caribbean.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/4/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #9

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ivan very closely over the next few days as Ivan has the potential to affect the region as a significant hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.0N and 40.7W. This places the enter about 1400 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is to the west near 20 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next several days, bringing the storm into the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum winds are near 60 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 997mb. Significant intensification is still possible over the next couple of days despite the lack of organziation shown today. Ivan could still become a hurricane within the next couple of days

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/4/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #10

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Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 9.4N and 42.4W. This places the enter about 1355 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next several days, bringing the storm into the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum winds are near 70 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 990mb. Significant intensification is expected over the next few days and Ivan could move through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

6 A.M. AST 9/4/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #11

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At 5 A.M., the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located near 9.7N and 44.3W. This places the enter about 1210 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is to the west near 20 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next several days, bringing the storm into the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum winds are near 75 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 988mb. Significant intensification is expected over the next few days and Ivan could move through the Lesser Antilles as a major hurricane.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/5/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #12

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Residents of the Lesser Antilles, especially the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands need to monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan very closely as it expected to move through these islands as a strong category three hurricane. NWHHC will recommend a Hurricane Watch at 5 P.M. for Barbados. Please refer to the Official Alerts Page or local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 9.9N and 46.0W. This places the eye about 1040 ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is to the west near 20 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm through the islands and into the Caribbean on Tuesday.

Maximum winds have increased and are now near 90 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 075mb. Continued significant intensification is expected and Ivan is expected to become a major hurricane within the next 24 hours and affect the Lesser Antilles as a strong category three hurricane.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. AST 9/5/2004 HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL UPDATE #13

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Hurricane Ivan is exploding into a major hurricane and is expected to be the most powerful hurricane to impact the Windward Islands since Hurricane David in 1979. All residents of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands need to make all necessary preparations for a catastrophic hurricane.

NWHHC will recommend a Hurricane Watch at 5 P.M. AST for the Island of Barbados. at 5 P.M. Please remember that this is only a recommendation and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 10.2N and 46.9W. This places the center about 995 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The motion is slightly north of due west and this track is expected top continue, bringing the eye through the Windward Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum winds have increased and are now near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 960mb. Further significant intensification is expected during the next few days and Ivan is now expected to impact the Caribbean as a category four hurricane, similar in intensity to that of Hurricane David.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/5/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #14

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Hurricane Ivan continues to undergo explosive intensification and could become a category five hurricane before moving into the Caribbean. Residents of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands need to prepare for a category four or five hurricane, which is expected to move into the area on Tuesday.

Hurricane Ivan has the potential to be more intense in the Windward Islands than was Hurricane David in 1979, 25 years ago.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for Barbados and will recommend a Hurricane watch for all of the Lesser Antilles south of Guadeloupe at 11 P.M. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 10.4N and 47.7W. This places the eye about 820 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion is slightly to the north of west at 21 m.p.h. This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the hurricane through the Windward or southern Leeward Islands on Tuesday.

Maximum winds have increased significantly and are now near 130 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 945mb. Continued intensification is expected and Ivan could impact the islands as a category five hurricane.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. AST 9/5/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #15

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Hurricane Ivan continues to explode. Based upon satellite imagery, Ivan is now a strong category four hurricane and could soon become a category five hurricane. All residents of the Windward and southern leeward Islands need to begin immediate preparations for a catastrophic hurricane on Tuesday. Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Ivan extremely closely as this extremely dangerous hurricane is expected to move through the Caribbean.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for Barbados and will recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Barbados and a Hurricane Watch for all of the Lesser Antilles south of Guadeloupe at 11 P.M. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 10.6N and 48.5W. This places the eye about 760 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion is slightly to the north of due west near 21 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the eye near Barbados and the Windward Islands in the late morning or afternoon of Tuesday.

Maximum winds are estimated to have increased to near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 935mb. Some further intensification is expected before moving into the Caribbean and Ivan may become a category five hurricane later tonight or tomorrow.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/5/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #16

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Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Ivan quickly heads toward the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Residents of these islands need to prepare for a catastrophic hurricane. Hurricane Ivan is expected to move through the islands Tuesday morning or early afternoon.

Hurricane Ivan has the potential to impact the Lesser Antilles as a category five hurricane. This would make the hurricane significantly more intense than Hurricane David when it moved through the Windward Islands in 1979.

NWHHC now recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Barbados and a Hurricane Watch for the Lesser Antilles south of Guadeloupe. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean need to monitor extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan very closely.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 10.8N and 49.4W. This places the eye about 700 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion remains slightly to the north of due west near 21 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm into the Caribbean Tuesday morning or afternoon.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 935mb. Some increase in intensity is expected before reaching the Caribbean and Ivan could impact the islands as a category five hurricane.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #17

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the Windward Islands and is expected to arrive tomorrow morning. Preparations for a catastrophic hurricane need to be completed by this evening and conditions will start to deteriorate in the morning.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles to the south of Dominica and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Barbados and continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for the Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents throughout the remainder of the Caribbean need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 10.8N and 51.6W. This places the center about 550 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion is to the west near 23 m.p.h. This general motion, with a possible turn to the WNW, is expected during the next few days, bringing the hurricane through the Caribbean.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 130 m.p.h.. The pressure is estimated to be 950mb. Satellite imagery suggests that Ivan may have peaked. Recon will investigate later this afternoon to determine the true intensity. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles; however, Ivan is expected to remain a major hurricane, capable of producing extreme damage to the Windward Islands.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #18

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Hurricane Ivan weakens further as it moves toward the Windward Islands; however, it is still expected to be a major hurricane as it impacts the area. All preparations in the Windward Islands for a major hurricane need to be completed by this evening as conditions will rapidly begin to deteriorate afterwards due to the very rapid motion of Ivan.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Barbados, as well as the remainder of the Lesser Antilles south of and including Dominica, and a Hurricane Watch for the Islands between Dominica and Guadeloupe, including Guadeloupe. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials. Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.1N and 52.6W. This places the eye about 480 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion is to the west near 23 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm into the Caribbean through the Windward Islands in 24-30 hours.

Maximum winds have decreased and are now estimated to be near 125 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 952mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected; however, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain a major hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #19

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan races toward the Windward Islands and will move through the area tomorrow morning. All storm preparations for a major hurricane need to be complete by this evening as conditions will rapidly deteriorate afterwards. This is expected to be the first major hurricane to affect the Windward Islands since Hurricane Allen in 1980.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles from and including Dominica south and a Hurricane Watch from Guadeloupe to but not including Dominica. Further watches may be needed later today for Hispaniola. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.2N and 53.4W. This places the eye about 435 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion is slightly north of due west near 22 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the hurricane through the Windward Islands as early as tomorrow morning.

Maximum winds are estimated to be between 120-125 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 955mb. Recon will investigate this afternoon to determine the actual intensity of the hurricane. Currently, Ivan is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles as a category three hurricane, which would be capable of producing severe damage.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #20

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Hurricane Ivan continues to race toward the Windward Islands and is expected to move through the chain overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning as a major hurricane. All storm preparations for a major hurricane need to be complete by this evening as conditions will rapidly begin to deteriorate overnight due to the fast motion of Ivan.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of and including Dominica, including Barbados. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch from Guadeloupe to but not including Dominica. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.3N and 54.5W. This places the eye about 360 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion continues to be slightly to the north of due west near 22 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will move through the Windward Islands sometime overnight tonight or tomorrow morning.

Maximum wind have decreased somewhat and are now between 110-115 m.p.h. This keeps Ivan as a major hurricane. The pressure is 969mb. Little change in intensity is expected before the eye moves through the islands.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #21

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Dangerous Hurricane Ivan closes in upon the Windward Islands and will move through the area within the next 12-18 hours as it moves rapidly to the west. All storm preparations need to be completed by this evening as conditions will deteriorate overnight and into tomorrow morning.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of and including Dominica and a Hurricane Watch from Guadeloupe to but not including to Dominica. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents in the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Ivan very closely over the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.6N and 55.3W. This places the center about 300 miles ESE of Barbados. The motion continues to be slightly north of due west near 21 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the storm into the Caribbean overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be near 110 m.p.h. The pressure is 969mb. There is some chance that Ivan will intensify slightly before moving into the Caribbean as the storm appears to be better organized on satellite imagery.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

STATEMENT AS OF 6 P.M. AST 9/6/2004

Recon data indicates that Hurricane Ivan has started to re-intensify. The pressure has fallen to 964mb. Winds remain 110 m.p.h. Ivan is expected to become a major hurricane later this evening and affect the Windward Islands as a major hurricane.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #22

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Hurricane Ivan dips to the south of due west and now poses a significant threat to the northern portions of Venezuela. In addition, it once again is a category three hurricane. Storm preparations need to be completed by midnight in the Windward Islands as well as along the north coast of Venezuela

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela east of 65W, including any offshore islands and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of an including Dominica. The Hurricane Watch from Guadeloupe to Dominica is no longer recommended. A watch may be recommended farther along the coast of Venezuela and all offshore islands later this evening. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the Official Watches and Warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

The greatest threat to Venezuela is heavy rainfall from the southern portion of the hurricane. The greatest threat for a landfall appears to be the islands of Trinidad and St Vincent.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.2N and 56.2W. This places the center about 240 miles SE of Barbados. The motion is slightly to the south of due west. On this track, Ivan will be passing south of Barbados overnight and nearing St Vincent and the north coast of Venezuela early tomorrow morning. A turn more to the WNW is expected in 12-24 hours, bringing the system toward the NW Caribbean.

Maximum winds have increased to near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is 963mb. Satellite imagery shows that Ivan is once again organizing quickly and some additional intensification is possible before impacting the islands and South America; however, currently, Ivan is expected to remain as a category three hurricane.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/6/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #23

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving very rapidly toward the southern Windward Islands and the northern coast of Venezuela. Conditions will deteriorate very rapidly over night and into tomorrow morning. Hurricane Ivan is expected to move through the Islands within the next 12 hours. All storm preparations should be completed within the next couple of hours.

The islands at greatest risk appear to be Trinidad, Tobago, St Vincent, as well as the Grenedines. Any of these islands are at risk for a direct hit from Ivan, as is the north coast of Venezuela. Severe flooding may occur in Venezuela from mudslides.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles from and including Dominica south as well as for the north coast of Venezuela from 61 to 65W including all offshore islands. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Venezuela from 65 to 70W, including the ABC Islands. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.2N and 57.2W. This places the eye 210 miles SE of Barbados. The motion remains to the west or slightly to the south of due west near 21 m.p.h. A track mainly to the west is expected during the next 24-36 hours, bringing the storm through the southern Windward Islands and the north coast of Venezuela. After this, a turn to the WNW is expected, bringing the storm into the central and western Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 961mb. Little change in intensity is expected before impacting the land areas. Ivan is expected to be a dangerous category three hurricane through the Windwards and near South America.

Next Update: 1 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

1 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #24

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Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.0N and 57.9W. This places the eye 160 miles SE of Barbados. The motion remains to the west or slightly to the south of due west near 21 m.p.h. A track mainly to the west is expected during the next 24-36 hours, bringing the storm through the southern Windward Islands and the north coast of Venezuela. After this, a turn to the WNW is expected, bringing the storm into the central and western Caribbean.

Next Update: 6 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

6 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #25

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is about to move through the Windward Islands. Conditions have already begun to deteriorate significantly in the Islands and will begin to do so in northern Venezuela. All storm preparations should have been completed by now.

Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.4N and 58.7W. This places the eye 120 miles east of Tobago. The motion remains to the west near 18 m.p.h. A track mainly to the west is expected during the next 24-36 hours, bringing the storm through the southern Windward Islands and the north coast of Venezuelain a few hours. After this, a turn to the WNW is expected, bringing the storm into the central and western Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is 965mb. Little change in intensity is expected before impacting the land areas. Ivan is expected to be a dangerous category three hurricane through the Windwards and near South America.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #26

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is bearing down on the southern Windward Islands. Tobago and St Vincent are at the greatest risk for a direct hit. Conditions have already started to deteriorate in the islands and will continue to do so during the morning. All storm preparations should have been completed now.

Flood and musdlies are the greatest risk for South America, as well as islands such as Barbados, Dominica, and Martinique.

Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.6N and 58.7W. This places the eye 120 miles east of Tobago. The motion remains to the west near 18 m.p.h. A track mainly to the west is expected during the next 24-36 hours, bringing the storm through the southern Windward Islands and the north coast of Venezuelain a few hours. After this, a turn to the WNW is expected, bringing the storm into the central and western Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is 963mb. Little change in intensity is expected before impacting the land areas. Ivan is expected to be a dangerous category three hurricane through the Windwards and near South America.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #27

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues to move directly toward St Vincent and is passing just north of Tobago. The eye or northern eye wall is expected to pass directly over St Vincent in a mere few hours. Residents of St Vincent need to immediately seek shelter as weather conditions are rapidly deteriorating and will continue to do so throughout the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.

Farther to the south in South America, the greatest threat from this system is heavy rainfall and severe mudslides that may occur from the southern portions of the core, as well as from the feeder bands.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of and including Dominica and for the northern coast of Venezuela from 61 to 67W including any offshore islands. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Venezuela from 67 to 70W, including the ABC islands to the north. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.7N and 60.2W. This places the eye about 40 miles NE of Tobago. The motion is to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the storm into the Caribbean and near the ABC islands in a couple of days.

Maximum winds remain near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is 963mb. Little change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days as Ivan affects the Islands and Venezuela. However, a category three hurricane is capable of causing severe damage in these areas.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #28

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If you are in Grenada, the Grenedines, or St Vincent, you should not be reading this update. Instead, you should be in a safe room taking shelter. This has went from a potentially dangerous situation to a very dangerous situation.

Wind gusts in excess of 90 m.p.h. have occurred on barbados as Hurricane Ivan moved about 100 miles to the south of the island. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on Grenada, which is going to take a direct hit from this major hurricane within the next 2-3 hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected to spread into the Grenedines and St Vincent. Wind gusts may exceed 130 m.p.h. in the eye wall and 90-100 m.p.h. outside of the eye wall.

Residents of the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.8N and 61.1W. This places the eye about 40 miles east of Grenada. The motion is to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the storm into the Caribbean this afternoon and near the ABC islands late tomorrow or early Thursday.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #29

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The northern eye wall of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is currently over Grenada with maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. Hurricane conditions have been occurring throughout the Windward Islands and there have been reports of widespread structural damage throughout the Windward Islands. Conditions will slowly improve throughout the evening as Ivan moves to the west. To the south, in Venezuela, the greatest threat is from heavy rainfall and life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 61 to 70W and the ABC Islands and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of Dominica. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Venezuela and Columbia from 70 to 73W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan very closely.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.0N and 62.0W. This places the eye just west of Grenada. The motion continues to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm near the ABC islands either late tomorrow or early on Thursday.

Maximum winds have increased and are near 120 m.p.h. The pressure is 956mb. Some slight additional intensification is expected during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves close to the South American continent.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #30

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As Hurricane Ivan moves away from Grenada, it again becomes a category four hurricane. It crossed Grenada with maximum winds estimated at 125 m.p.h. with higher gusts. Preliminary reports indicate that large portions of the island have been completely destroyed by the high winds and tidal surges. The ABC islands may be next in line. Storm preparations need to be rushed to completion in these islands.

Torrential rainfall and life threatening flash flooding are possible along the north coast of Venezuela.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 61 to 70W and the ABC Islands and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles south of Dominica, except for Barbados, where no watches or warnings are recommended. NWHHC continues to recommends a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Venezuela and Columbia from 70 to 73W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan very closely.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.0N and 62.6W. This places the eye about 385 miles east of Bonaire, in the ABC islands. The motion continues to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for the next couple of days, bringing the storm near the ABC islands either late tomorrow or early on Thursday.

Maximum winds have increased and are near 135 m.p.h. The pressure is 951mb. Some slight additional intensification is expected during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves close to the South American continent.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #31

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues to the west in the general direction of the ABC Islands. Storm preparations need to be completed in these islands by tomorrow morning. Earlier today, Ivan moves directly over Grenada and preliminary reports indicate that the island has been leveled by the hurricane, which is believed to have had winds of 125 m.p.h. Elsewhere in the Windward Islands, hurricane conditions caused structural damage.

Ivan is expected to pass just north of the ABC Islands, though there is a good chance of hurricane conditions occurring. The primary threat to Venezuela and Columbia appears to be from flooding and life threatening mudslides.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 62 to 70W, including the ABC Islands, as well as a Hurricane Watch for Venezuela and Columbia on the north coast from 70 to 73W. NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings for the Windward Islands, or from Venezuela from 61 to 62W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely over the next couple of days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.1N and 63.3W. This places the eye about 335 miles east of Bonaire. The motion is to the west near 17 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for about 24 more hours, bringing the storm near the ABC Islands tomorrow, before turning more to the WNW toward the NW Caribbean.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 947mb. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so as the system moves along the coast of South America.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #32

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues to the west in the general direction of the ABC Islands while maintaining its intensity of 140 m.p.h. While the hurricane is expected to pass north of these islands, it still may pass close enough to bring hurricane conditions there. Yesterday, it made a direct hit on Grenada and the island appears to have been leveled. There was also extensive damage to the other Windward Islands.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 63 to 70W, including the ABC Islands, as well as a Hurricane Watch for Venezuela and Columbia on the north coast from 70 to 73W. NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings for the Windward Islands, or from Venezuela from 62 to 63W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely over the next couple of days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.4N and 64.8W. This places the eye about 235 miles east of Bonaire. The motion is to the west near 17 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for about 12-24 more hours, bringing the storm near the ABC Islands in about 12 hours, before turning more to the WNW toward the NW Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 948mb. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so as the system moves along the coast of South America, though Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane for the next five days.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. AST 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #33

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving toward the ABC Islands. While the eye is expected to pass just north of the islands this afternoon or early evening, hurricane conditions may occur there and any southward wobble over the eye will result in the eye crossing these islands. Therefore, all storm preparations need to be completed as soon as possible as conditions have already started to deteriorate there. The threat to Venezuela and Columbia remains flooding and mudslides.

Yesterday, Hurricane Ivan moved through the Windward Islands. More reports are coming in and it does appear as if Grenada has been leveled and other islands in the Windward Island chain have experienced extensive structural damage.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 64W to the Venezuela/Columbia border and a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Columbia from the border to 73W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely over the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.5N and 65.6W. This places the eye about 180 miles east of Bonaire. The motion continues to the west near 18 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue for about 12-24 hours, before a turn to the WNW occurs, bringing the hurricane toward the NW Caribbean Sea.

Maximum winds appear to have decreased slightly and are now near 135 m.p.h. The pressure is 955mb. Some further weakening may occur today due to some wind shear impacting the hurricane. However, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane for at least the next five days and is capable of leveling any land areas that it may encounter.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. AST 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #34

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Hurricane Ivan is expected to move to the north of the ABC islands in about 6-12 hours, though any southward wobble will bring the eye over the islands. However, there is a chance that hurricane force winds, at least in gusts, will occur there. Storm preparations should have been complete by now in the ABC Islands as conditions have started to deteriorate there. Next stop may be Jamaica. Yesterday, while moving through the Windward Islands, Hurricane Ivan leveled the island of Grenada and caused extensive damage to the other Windward Islands.

Heavy rainfall and mudslides remain possible for Venezuela and Columbia.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 68W to the Venezuela/Columbia border as well as for the ABC Islands as well as a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Columbia from the border with Venezuela to 73W. NWHHC likely will recommend a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica later today. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.6N and 66.3W. This places the eye about 140 miles ENE of Bonaire. The motion is slightly to the north of due west near 16 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more to the WNW and NW, taking the hurricane toward the NW Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 135 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 955mb. Some slight additional weakening may occur today, though the general trend is for an intensifying hurricane and there is a chance that Ivan will be a very dangerous category five hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 2-3 days.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

STATEMENT AS OF 12:45 P.M. EDT 9/8/2004

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica

Forecaster: Ortt 1 P.M. AST 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #34

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Heavy rainfall and mudslides remain possible for Venezuela and Columbia.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 68W to the Venezuela/Columbia border as well as for the ABC Islands as well as a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Columbia from the border with Venezuela to 73W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 12.8N and 66.7W. This places the eye about 110 miles ENE of Bonaire. The motion is slightly to the north of due west near 16 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more to the WNW and NW, taking the hurricane toward the NW Caribbean.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

b>5 P.M. AST 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #35

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Heavy rainfall and mudslides remain possible for Venezuela and Columbia.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 13.4N and 67.6W. This places the eye about 60 miles NE of Bonaire. The motion is slightly to the north of due west near 16 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more to the WNW and NW, taking the hurricane toward the NW Caribbean.

Maximum winds have increased to near 145 m.p.h., a powerful category 4 hurricane. The pressure is estimated to be 947mb. Some intensification is expected for the next 24 hours, however, the general trend is for an intensifying hurricane and there is a chance that Ivan will be a very dangerous category five hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 2-3 days.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

STATEMENT AS OF 6:40 P.M. EDT 9/8/2004

Recon finds that the pressure has fallen to 943mb. Ivan is nearing category 5 status

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #36

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Hurricane Ivan wobbles back to the west and will pass a little close to the ABC Islands than previously expected. Hurricane conditions, at least in gusts, are likely for the ABC Islands, along with heavy rainfall and flash flooding for Venezuela and Columbia. In addition, the storm continues to intensify and is nearing category five intensity.

The next land area to be affected by Hurricane Ivan appears to be Jamaica, although the eye is expected to pass south of the island. However, on the current forecast track, Ivan would bring hurricane conditions to Jamaica and any deviation to the north or east would bring the eye over Jamaica and would likely result in the island being leveled.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the north coast of Venezuela from 68W to the Venezuela Border and for the ABC Islands. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Columbia form the border with Venezuela to 73W as well as for Jamaica. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency officials.

Residents of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Yucatan, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely over the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 13.4N and 68.4W. This places the eye about 95 miles north of Curacao and 640 miles ESE of Jamaica. The motion has shifted back to the west near 18 m.p.h. A track to the WNW is expected during the next couple of days, before turning to the NW, bringing the storm through the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 938mb. Further intensification is likely and Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/8/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #37

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Hurricane Ivan moves more westerly, passing just north of the ABC Islands. Hurricane force wind gusts may occur when the back side of the storm passes by. In Venezuela and Columbia, the greatest threats are flooding and mudslides.

Residents of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, the Yucatan, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely over the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 13.6N and 69.1W. This places the eye about 90 miles north of Curacao and 595 miles ESE of Jamaica. The motion has shifted back to the west near 18 m.p.h. A track to the WNW is expected during the next couple of days, before turning to the NW, bringing the storm through the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 938mb. Further intensification is likely and Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #38

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Hurricane Ivan reaches category five intensity as it moves toward Jamaica. The closest point of approach to the island is expected during the next 24-36 hours. If the eye makes a direct hit, Jamaica may completely be destroyed.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings for South America. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 13.9N and 70.0W. This places the eye about 530 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 15 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for a couple of days, before turning to the NW and into the NW Caribbean. It is too early to say what part, if any, of the United States may be affected.

Maximum winds have increased and are now near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 922mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days; however, Ivan is expected to remain as a very dangerous category four five hurricane, capable of producing catastrophic damage if the eye or eye wall crosses land.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #38

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Residents of Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #39

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Hurricane Ivan is a category five hurricane as it moves toward Jamaica. The closest point of approach to the island is expected during the next 24-36 hours. If the eye makes a direct hit, Jamaica may completely be destroyed.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti west of 70W along the southern coasts. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 14.2N and 70.7W. This places the eye about 475 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 15 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for a couple of days, before turning to the NW and into the NW Caribbean. It is too early to say what part, if any, of the United States may be affected.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 920mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days; however, Ivan is expected to remain as a very dangerous category four five hurricane, capable of producing catastrophic damage if the eye or eye wall crosses land.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #40

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Residents of Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 14.4N and 71.0W. This places the eye about 450 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 16 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for a couple of days, before turning to the NW and into the NW Caribbean. It is too early to say what part, if any, of the United States may be affected.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 921mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days; however, Ivan is expected to remain as a very dangerous category four/five hurricane, capable of producing catastrophic damage if the eye or eye wall crosses land.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

STATEMENT AS OF 12 P.M. EDT 9/9/2004

NWHHC has learned that a total evacuation of the Florida Keys is in effect. Please refer to local emergency management officials for the details about the phases of this evacuation.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. AST 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #41

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Extremely dangerous, category five Hurricane Ivan continues toward the WNW in the general direction of Jamaica. All storm preparations need to be completed by this evening as conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight as the outer bands move across Jamaica. If the eye or eye wall comes across the island, complete destruction can be expected. Storm preparations in the Cayman Islands need to be completed by tomorrow morning.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the Cayman Islands and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica. A tropical storm warning continues to be recommended for the south coasts of the Dominican republic and Haiti west of 70W. A Hurricane Watch may be recommended for a portion of Cuba tonight. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of The Yucatan, and Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely as well over the next few days

A total evacuation has been ordered for the Florida Keys. Please consult with local emergency management officials for more details regarding the phases of this evecuation.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 15.0N and 72.4W. This places the eye about 350 miles ESE of Kingston, jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 15 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for the next couple of days, before turning more to the NW toward the NW Caribbean and the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 921mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days, as is typical of all hurricanes of this intensity. However, Ivan is expected to remain a dangerous category four or five hurricane until a possible landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #42

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Hurricane Ivan is bringing wind, rain, and coastal flooding to the Dominican republic and Haiti. There is the potential for life-threatening flooding and muslides in the mountains. Jamaica is next in line and a possible landfall from Ivan is expected within the next 24-36 hours.

This hurricane is much more intense than was Hurricane Gilbert when it impacted Jamaica in 1988. Therefore, all storm preparations need to be completed this evening as conditions will begin to deteriorate long before the arrival of the eye.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and the Cayman islands, as well as a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti west of 70W. A Hurricane Watch for Cuba may be recommended later this evening as well. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

A total evacuation has been ordered by Monroe County emergency management officials for the Florida Keys. Please check with local officials for details regarding the phases of this evacuation.

Residents of the Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 15.2N and 72.9W. This places the eye about 320 miles to the SE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 13 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue for a couple of days, bringing the storm near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, before turning more to the north as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be near 150 m.p.h. The pressure is 924mb Hurricane Ivan may become a category five hurricane again overnight as atmospheric conditions are very favorable for further development.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/9/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #43

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Hurricane Ivan continues to bring high winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. There is the potential for life threatening flash flooding and mudslides for the area.

Hurricane Ivan is also heading toward Jamaica and is expected to be significantly more intense than was Hurricane Gilbert, a terrible hurricane that devastated Jamaica in 1988. Residents of Jamaica need to make preparations for a landfalling category four or five hurricane.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, as well as a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti west of 70W. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of Cuba between 75 and 78W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

A total evacuation has been ordered for the Florida Keys by Monroe County emergency management. Please consult with local emergency management officials for the details regarding the phases of this evacuation.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous Hurricane very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 15.5N and 73.3W. This places the eye 290 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 12 m.p.h. On this track, the core of Ivan will move over Jamaica near Kingston sometime late tomorrow. An eventual turn to the NNW is expected, bringing the storm across Cuba and threatening the Florida Keys.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 923mb. Some re-intensification is possible during the next 12-24 hours before the hurricane nears Jamaica and Ivan could again become a category five hurricane prior to moving over Jamaica.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #44

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Recon finds 150KT at flight level, meaning Ivan is once again neat category five intensity.

Residents of the Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous Hurricane very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 15.9N and 75.2W. This places the eye 225 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 12 m.p.h. On this track, the core of Ivan will move over Jamaica near Kingston sometime late tomorrow. An eventual turn to the NNW is expected, bringing the storm across Cuba and threatening the Florida Keys.

Maximum winds are estimated to be near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 929mb. Some further re-intensification is possible during the next 12-24 hours before the hurricane nears Jamaica and Ivan could again become a category five hurricane prior to moving over Jamaica.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #45

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Ivan fluctuates downward again in intensity; however, it remains a very dangerous category four hurricane with 145 m.p.h. winds. The storm is moving toward Jamaica and a direct hit at this intensity will likely mean total devastation.

Hurricane Ivan is significantly stronger than was Hurricane Gilbert, a category three hurricane that devastated Jamaica in 1988. All storm preparations should have been completed by now and residents of Jamaica should begin seeking shelter as conditions have started to deteriorate and will continue to do so throughout the days.

High winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding continue in the southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Conditions will slowly improve in these areas during the day as Ivan moves to the WNW.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the south coast of Cuba from 75-78W and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch will be recommended for all of Cuba between 78 and 84W at 11 A.M. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

A total evacuation is currently underway for the Florida Keys. Please consult with Monroe County emergency management officials for information regarding the phases of this evecuation.

Residents of mainland Florida also need to monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan very carefully during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 15.3N and 74.7W. The position of 75.2 in the previous update was a mistake and should have read 74.2. This places the eye about 165 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 13 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will near Kingston in about 12-15 hours. A WNW then a NW, followed by a northerly motion is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman islands, across Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico where the storm is expected to threaten Florida.

Maximum winds have fluctuated down slightly and are again near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 934mb. There is still a chance of re-intensification before impacting Jamaica and category five intensity remains possible in the northwest Caribbean.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #46

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward Jamaica and is expected to make landfall near Kingston in about 9-12 hours. Conditions have already started to deteriorate with high winds and heavy rainfall. Conditions will worsen as the eye makes its way toward the Jamaican coastline this afternoon. Complete devastation can be expected in the eye wall. All residents of Jamaica should be seeking shelter at this time.

This hurricane is significantly more intense than was Hurricane Gilbert, which devastated the island in 1988.

High winds and heavy rainfall continue for the southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Conditions here will improve throughout the day as Ivan moves away.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for all of Cuba between 78W and 84W and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba between 75W and 78W. A Tropical Storm Warning is still recommended for the south coast of Haiti, but no longer for the Dominican Republic. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

A total evacuation is underway for the Florida Keys. Please consult with Monroe County emergency management officials for the details regarding the phases of this evacuation.

Residents of mainland Florida need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 16.5N and 75.1W. This places the eye about 155 miles SE of Kingston Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 12 m.p.h. Landfall near Kingston is expected in about 12 hours. A WNW to NW motion is expected followed by a turn to the north, bringing the storm across Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 934mb. Some increase in intensity is possible before landfall occurs in Jamaica and there is a chance that Ivan will regain category five intensity after moving into the NW Caribbean.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #47

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This hurricane is significantly more intense than was Hurricane Gilbert, which devastated the island in 1988.

High winds and heavy rainfall continue for the southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Conditions here will improve throughout the day as Ivan moves away.

A total evacuation is underway for the Florida Keys. Please consult with Monroe County emergency management officials for the details regarding the phases of this evacuation.

Residents of mainland Florida need to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivan very closely during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 16.7N and 75.7W. This places the eye about 100 miles SE of Kingston Jamaica. The motion is to the WNW near 12 m.p.h. Landfall near Kingston is expected in about 6-9 hours. A WNW to NW motion is expected followed by a turn to the north, bringing the storm across Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #49

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If you are in Jamaica, you should not be reading this update as you should have sought shelter already in a safe room. Hurricane Ivan has went from a potentially dangerous situation to perhaps the single most dangerous situation ever facing Jamaica. Hurricane Ivan is much more intense than was Hurricane Gilbert when it devastated the island in 1988 and could re-intensify into a category five hurricane just prior to making landfall in Jamaica just to the west of Kingston.

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan nears Jamaica. Reports indicate that there is already some flooding that has occurred due to the heavy rainfall. Conditions will continue to worsen as the eye nears the coast this evening. Landfall is expected in about 3-6 hours, slightly to the west of Kingston.

Conditions will start to deteriorate tomorrow in the Cayman Islands. Therefore, all storm preparations need to be completed by tomorrow morning.

Winds and rains continue for the southern portions of Hispaniola. Conditions will slowly improve as Ivan moves farther to the west.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba between 75 and 78W, as well as a Hurricane Watch for all of Cuba between 78 and 84W. A Tropical Storm Warning is also recommended for the south coast of Haiti. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

A total evacuation is underway in the Florida Keys. Failure to comply with this evacuation order may place your life in danger. Please consult with Monroe County emergency management officials for the details regarding the phases of this evacuation.

Residents of the Florida mainland and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very carefully during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.2N and 74.6W. This places the eye just 55 miles SSE of Kingston Jamaica. The motion continues to the WNW near 13 m.p.h. If a straight WNW track continues, Kingston would likely not experience the eye wall, but would receive wind gusts well over 100 m.p.h. Any deviation to the north will result in Kingston receiving the eye wall, which would bring about total destruction to Jamaican capital. A track to the WNW, then NW, followed by northerly is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands, with any deviation bringing the eye over the islands, over Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is falling rapidly and the latest recon indicated 927mb, though it is likely much lower. Therefore, Ivan is expected to intensify to near category five status before making landfall at Jamaica. category five status is likely over the NW Caribbean as well.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

POSITION STATEMENT AS OF 9 P.M. EDT 9/10/2004

Hurricane Ivan is located at 17.3N and 76.7W, placing the storm about 47 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecaster: Ortt

POSITION STATEMENT AS OF 10 P.M. EDT 9/10/2004

Hurricane Ivan is located at 17.4N and 76.8W, placing the storm about 39 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #50

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Reports are coming in from Kingston and there appears to have been some serious damage to Kingston. Conditions will continue to worsen as the eastern eye wall grazes the area. The eye is expected to cross the western portions of Jamaica overnight tonight.

Winds and rains continue for the southern portions of Hispaniola. Conditions will slowly improve as Ivan moves farther to the west.

Residents of the Florida mainland and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very carefully during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.5N and 76.9W. This places the eye just 35 miles south of Kingston Jamaica. The motion continues to the WNW near 13 m.p.h. If a straight WNW track continues, Kingston will likely experience the edges of the eastern eye wall. Any deviation to the north will result in Kingston receiving the entire eye wall, which would bring about total destruction to Jamaican capital. Landfall is expected in the western portions of Jamaica. A track to the WNW, then NW, followed by northerly is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands, with any deviation bringing the eye over the islands, over Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds have increased to near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is falling rapidly and is estimated to be 920mb. Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next few hours.

Next Update: 1 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

1 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #51

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Reports are coming in from Kingston and there appears to have been some serious damage to Kingston. Conditions will slowly improve as the storm moves to the west. Ivan has shifted south and may bring its northern eye wall along the entire length of the island. Any northward wobble will result in a landfall.

This westerly change in track places the Caymans more at risk of a landfall.

Winds and rains continue for the southern portions of Hispaniola. Conditions will slowly improve as Ivan moves farther to the west.

Residents of the Florida mainland and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very carefully during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.5N and 77.5W. This places the eye just 25 miles south of Portland Point, Jamaica. The motion ie to the west near 13 m.p.h. though a NW track is expected to begin soon. If a straight WNW track continues, Kingston will likely experience the edges of the eastern eye wall. On this track, the northern eye wall will remain just offshore and the northern eye wall would move along the coast, though any northerly motion will bring the eye inland. A track to the WNW, then NW, followed by northerly is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands, with any deviation bringing the eye over the islands, over Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain nearnear 155 m.p.h. The pressure is falling rapidly and is estimated to be 920mb. Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next few hours.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #52

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Ivan has continued to shift its track to the west and continues to move parallel to the south coast of Jamaica. However, the dangerous right side of the strm remains over the island.

This westerly change in track places the Caymans more at risk of a landfall.

Winds and rains continue for the southern portions of Hispaniola. Conditions will slowly improve as Ivan moves farther to the west.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba between 75 and 78W, as well as a Hurricane Watch for all of Cuba between 78 and 84W. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti is no longer recommended. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Florida mainland and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very carefully during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.5N and 78.0W. This places the eye just 25 miles south of Portland Point, Jamaica. The motion ie to the west near 10 m.p.h. though a NW track is expected to begin soon. If a straight WNW track continues On this track, the northern eye wall would move along the coast, though any northerly motion will bring the eye inland. A track to the WNW, then NW, followed by northerly is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands, with any deviation bringing the eye over the islands, over Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 923mb. Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next few hours.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. EDT 9/10/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #53

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Hurricane Ivan continues to move along the south coast of Jamaica with the eye wall over the island. Conditions are very severe and the areas under the eye wall are likely beling leveled at this time.

This westerly change in track places the Caymans more at risk of a landfall. A possible landfall will occur overnight tonight or tomorrow morning.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba between 75 and 78W, as well as a Hurricane Watch for all of Cuba between 78 and 84W. A Hurricane WARNING will be recommended for a portion of Cuba at 11 A.M. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Florida mainland and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very carefully during the next few days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.7N and 78.4W. This places the eye just 60 miles south of Montego Bay, Jamaica and 225 miles ESE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion ie]s to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, the northern eye wall will continue to move along the coast, though any northerly motion will bring the eye inland. A track to the WNW, then NW, followed by northerly is expected during the next few days, bringing the storm near the Cayman Islands, with any deviation bringing the eye over the islands, over Cuba, near the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 923mb. Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane within the next few hours.

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #54

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving to the south of Jamaica, bringing winds well above hurricane force to the island. During the height of the storm, there is an unconfirmed report of a wind gust in Kingston to 186 m.p.h. and tidal surges as high as two or three story buildings. The Cayman Islands are next in line for Ivan. All storm preparations need to be completed within the next three to six hours in the Cayman Islands as conditions will rapidly begin to deteriorate.

Currently, Hurricane Ivan is forecast to move between Grand Cayman Island and the smaller islands to the northeast. However, any deviation to the west of this forecast track will result in a direct hit by the eye at Grand Cayman Island.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba between 80W and 84W, and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The Hurricane Warning for the south coast of Cuba between 75 and 78W is no longer recommended. A Hurricane Watch is still recommended for Cuba between 80 and 82W. A Hurricane Watch also may be recommended for the lower portions of the Florida Keys later today. Please remember that all of these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of mainland Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico also need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very closely during the next couple of days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 17.9N and 78.7W. This places the eye about 190 miles ESE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 7 m.p.h. A NW track is expected, bringing the hurricane through the Cayman Islands tonight and any deviation to the west of the forecast track will bring the eye over Grand Cayman Island.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 925mb. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, though Ivan will likely regain category five status before making landfall in Cuba.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #54

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Hurricane Ivan has shifted more to the west and may pass directly over Grand Cayman Island in about 18 hours. However, the effects from the hurricane will arrive long before the eye does. Therefore, all preparations for a catastrophic, category five hurricane need to be completed by this afternoon. Hurricane Ivan may provide similar effects as did Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, if not more intense if a direct hit occurs.

To the east, Hurricane Ivan continues to bring significant wind and rain to Jamaica and the eastern eye wall continues to pound the western portions of the island. There is an unconfirmed report of a wind gust to 186 m.p.h. in Kingston as the storm passes just south of the Jamaican capital.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for all of Cuba west of 84W and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, as well as all of Cuba between 80 and 84W. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for Cuba between 78 and 80W. A Hurricane Watch likely will not be recommended for the Florida Keys today. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane very closely during the next couple of days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.0N and 79.0W. This places the eye about 170 miles ESE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion continues to the WNW near 7 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the hurricane near Grand Cayman Island within the next 18 hours, then a turn to the NW is expected, bringing the storm across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure has fallen to 921mb. The eye wall replacement cycle is complete and Ivan will likely become a category five hurricane before moving over Grand Cayman Island.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

STATEMENT AS OF 4 P.M. EDT 9/11/2004

Recon data indicates that Hurricane Ivan has regained category five status. Maximum winds are now near 165 m.p.h. and the pressure is 914mb.

A SUPER HURRICANE WARNING is now recommended for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #55

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Hurricane Ivan regains category five intensity and has winds to 165 m.p.h. Ivan is expected to pass very close to or make a direct hit on Grand Cayman Island in about 15-18 hours. All storm preparations for a category five hurricane should have been completed at this time as conditions are already starting to deteriorate.

If Ivan makes a direct hit on Grand Cayman Island, conditions will be far worse than those experienced with Hurricane Gilbert when wind gusts exceeded 150 m.p.h. Hurricane conditions are also expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

Conditions on Jamaica will continue to improve throughout the afternoon and evening.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions. A Hurricane WARNING is recommended for the remainder of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and for all of Cuba between 80 and 84W. This will likely be extended to include all of western Cuba later this evening. A Hurricane Watch is recommended for Cuba between 78 and 80W and for Cuba west of 84W. A Watch may be recommended for the Yucatan tonight or tomorrow if the westerly motion continues. Please remember that these are all only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.2N and 79.2W. This places the eye about 145 miles to the ESE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. This track is expected to continue, bringing the eye over or near Grand Cayman Island in about 15-18 hours. Afterwards, a NW then a northerly track is expected, bringing the hurricane across western Cuba and toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds are near 165 m.p.h. The pressure is 914mb. Some further intensification is expected before the hurricane reaches the Cayman Islands and category five intensity is expected to be maintained until reaching western Cuba.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #57

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If you are in any of the Cayman Islands, you should not be reading this update as you should be in a shelter, and if you are on Grand Cayman Island, you should be in a fortified shelter as this extremely dangerous category five hurricane appears as if it is going to make a direct hit on the island within the next 12 hours. Conditions are expected to be significantly worse than they were with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

There are reports that hurricane force winds and tidal flooding are now occurring at Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical storm force winds have been reported at Grand Cayman Island. Conditions will continue to deteriorate with hurricane force winds spreading over Grand Cayman Island overnight tonight with the eye wall moving over the island tomorrow morning.

Conditions in Jamaica are slowly improving, though wind and flooding rains are expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours as Ivan moves slowly away.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions.NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 80W for the remainder of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica The hurricane watch for Cuba between 78 and 80W is no longer recommended. A Hurricane Watch may be recommended for the Yucatan tomorrow morning if the westerly motion continues. Please remember that these are all only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.3N and 80.0W. This places the eye about 105 miles SE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and this is expected to bring either the eye or the northern eye wall over Grand Cayman Island tomorrow morning. Afterwards, a turn toward the NNW is expected, bringing the hurricane toward western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 165 m.p.h. The pressure is 910mb. Some further increase in intensity is possible before impacting Grand Cayman Island and Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain as a very dangerous category five hurricane at least until it makes landfall in Cuba.

Next Update: 1 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #57

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The eye has wobbled to the NW and a direct hit now appears to be certain. There are reports that hurricane force winds and tidal flooding are now occurring at Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Tropical storm force winds have been reported at Grand Cayman Island. Conditions will continue to deteriorate with hurricane force winds spreading over Grand Cayman Island overnight tonight with the eye wall moving over the island tomorrow morning.

Conditions in Jamaica are slowly improving, though wind and flooding rains are expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours as Ivan moves slowly away.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions.NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 80W and for the remainder of the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch may be recommended for the Yucatan this morning if the westerly motion continues. Please remember that these are all only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.5N and 80.3W. This places the eye about 80 miles SE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and this is expected to bring either the eye or the northern eye wall over Grand Cayman Island this morning, about 8-10 hours form now. Afterwards, a turn toward the NNW is expected, bringing the hurricane toward western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #59

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A direct hit on Grand Cayman by a category four or five hurricane is now certain as Hurricane Ivan is located very near the island. Winds are sustaned at tropical storm force with higher gusts at Grand Cayman and hurricane force winds are expected soon. In addition, tremendous rainfall amounts, inexcess of 20-30 inches can be expected due to the very slow motion of this dangerous storm.

Conditions in Jamaica are slowly improving, though wind and flooding rains are expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours as Ivan moves slowly away.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions.NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 80W and for the remainder of the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch may be recommended for the Yucatan this morning if the westerly motion continues. Please remember that these are all only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.6N and 80.8W. This places the eye about 55 miles SSE of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and this is expected to bring either the eye or the northern eye wall over Grand Cayman Island this morning, about 4-6 hours form now. Afterwards, a turn toward the NNW is expected, bringing the hurricane toward western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds have decreased slightly to near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is 918mb. Some re-intensification is expected during the next day or so as this slight weakening appears to be due to another eye wall replacement cycle, and not a true weakening

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. EDT 9/11/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #60

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Conditions in Jamaica are slowly improving, though wind and flooding rains are expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours as Ivan moves slowly away.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions.NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 80W and for the remainder of the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch may be recommended for the Yucatan this morning if the westerly motion continues. Please remember that these are all only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula and the northern Gulf of Mexico need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next several days.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 18.8N and 81.2W. This places the eye about 34 miles south of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and this is expected to bring either the eye or the northern eye wall over Grand Cayman Island this morning, about couple of hours. Afterwards, a turn toward the NNW is expected, bringing the hurricane toward western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is 919mb. Some re-intensification is expected during the next day or so as this slight weakening appears to be due to another eye wall replacement cycle, and not a true weakening

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #61

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The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is over Grand Cayman islands and there have been reports of major damage and that parts of the city of Georgetown are under water due to the rainfall and tidal surge flooding. Conditions will remain very severe for the next few hours before leveling off as Ivan slowly moves away.

Conditions in Jamaica continue to improve.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. The is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions. A Hurricane WARNING continues to be recommended for the remainder of the Cayman Islands, as well as all of Cuba west of 80W. A Hurricane Watch is now recommended for the Yucatan Peninsula from the Mexico/Belize border to Cancun. The Tropical Storm Warning that was recommended for Jamaica is no longer recommended. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 19.0N and 81.5W. This places the eye only about 19 miles south of Grand Cayman Island and the eye wall is over the island. The motion continues to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. and this track is expected to continue, though a turn to the north is expected before the hurricane would make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Maximum winds remain near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is 919mb. Re-intensification into a strong category five hurricane is expected later today as conditions are very favorable for further intensification. Ivan is currently expected to remain a major hurricane until it makes a final landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #62

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Hurricane Ivan is slowly moving away from the Cayman Islands; however, reports indicate that there has been severe damage due to the high winds and tidal surge. Conditions will slowly improve throughout the day.

Hurricane Ivan continues to the WNW and may move closer to the Yucatan Peninsula that previously expected. Residents of the Yucatan should be ready in case hurricane force winds do occur there.

NWHHC no longer recommends a Super Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman Island, but now does recommend a Hurricane WARNING for Grand Cayman Island. A Hurricane WARNING continues to be recommended for the remainder of the Cayman Islands, as well as all of Cuba west of 80W. A Hurricane Watch is now recommended for the Yucatan Peninsula from the Mexico/Belize border to Cancun. The Tropical Storm Warning that was recommended for Jamaica is no longer recommended. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 19.2N and 82.1W. This places the eye about 50 miles east of Grand Cayman Island. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the system possibly near the Yucatan Peninsula, before turning more to the north toward the northern Gulf coast.

Maximum winds are estimated to have decreased to near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 922mb. Re-intensification into a category five hurricane is expected during the next several hours as the hurricane is completing an eye wall replacement cycle. Ivan is also expected to remain a major hurricane until it mkaes landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #63

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Unconfirmed reports indicate that large portions of Grand Cayman Island have been completely destroyed. Conditions are still severe at Grand Cayman, though conditions will slowly improve throughout the day today and into this evening as Hurricane Ivan continues to move to the west, away from the island.

Hurricane Ivan is heading in the general direction of the Yucatan Peninsula and the leading edge of the could shield is not far from the area. Residents need to be prepared in the event that this hurricane moves closer to the area.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize/Mexico Border to Cancun and now recommends a Hurricane Watch from Cancun to Merida. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the Cayman Islands, and now for all of Cuba west of 82W. The Warning that was recommended for Cuba between 80 and 82W is no longer recommended. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the northern Gulf Coast need to monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane very closely during the next few days. Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast sometime within the next 72-96 hours.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 9.3N and 82.5W. This places the eye about 225 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. A turn to the NW is expected before reaching the Yucatan, bringing the hurricane into the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Mexico; however, any deviation to the west would bring the eye over the Cancun area and any deviation to the east would bring the eye over Cuba.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 916mb. Re-intensification into a category five hurricane is expected during the next few hours as the hurricane is becoming better organized and the pressure is falling. In addition, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until it reaches the U.S. Gulf coast.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #64

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving toward the Yucatan Channel; however, any deviation to the west will bring the eye over the Cancun area and any deviation to the east will bring the eye over western Cuba. Storm preparations in these areas need to be completed by tomorrow morning as conditions will begin to deteriorate long before then.

As Hurricane Ivan moved just south of Grand Cayman island, it has produced severe damage on the island. Conditions remain severe there, though they are slowly improving and will continue to do so as the hurricane moves away from the island.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to Merida. A Hurricane WARNING continues to be recommended for the Cayman Islands, as well as all of Cuba west of 82W. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 19.5N and 82.7W. This places the eye about 195 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba and about 280 miles ESE of Cancun. The motion continues to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will be passing through the Yucatan Channel sometime tomorrow.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be 150 m.p.h. The pressure is 916mb. A new aircraft will be investigating Ivan soon to determine if the storm has reached category five intensity. Re-intensification into a category five storm is expected within the next few hours and Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until it makes landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #65

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As Hurricane Ivan moved just south of Grand Cayman Island this morning, it has produced severe damage on the island. Conditions remain severe there, though they are slowly improving and will continue to do so as the hurricane moves away from the island.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to Merida, for the Cayman Islands, as well as all of Cuba west of 82W. A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to the Belize/Mexico Border. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 19.7N and 83.2W. This places the eye about 175 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba and about 240 miles ESE of Cancun. The motion continues to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will be passing through the Yucatan Channel sometime tomorrow.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be 155 m.p.h, making Ivan a borderline category five hurricane. The pressure is 917mb. Some further intensification is expected during the next day or so and Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #66

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving toward the Yucatan Channel and hurricane force winds are expected for both Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula; however, any deviation to the west will bring the eye over the Cancun area and any deviation to the east will bring the eye over western Cuba. Storm preparations in these areas should have already been completed by now in Cuba and should be completed as soon as possible in the Yucatan as conditions have already started to deteriorate in Cuba and will do so soon on the Yucatan.

As Hurricane Ivan moved just south of Grand Cayman Island yesterday, it has produced severe damage on the island. Conditions remain severe there, though they are slowly improving and will continue to do so as the hurricane moves away from the island.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 20.2N and 83.9W. This places the eye about 120 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba and about 190 miles ESE of Cancun. The motion continues to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will be passing through the Yucatan Channel sometime today, though any deviation in either direction will result in a landfall on either the Yucatan, or in Cuba. A turn is then expected to the NW, bringing the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds are now estimated to be 160 m.p.h, making Ivan a category five hurricane. The pressure is 930mb. Some further intensification is expected during the next day or so and Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #69

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Hurricane Ivan moved just south of Grand Cayman Island yesterday, it has produced severe damage on the island. Conditions remain severe there, though they are slowly improving and will continue to do so as the hurricane moves away from the island.

Residents of the northern Gulf coast need to closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane as it is expected to make a final landfall in this area late on Wednesday or early on Thursday. A Hurricane Watch will likely be recommended for a portion of this area either later today or tomorrow morning.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 20.5N and 84.3W. This places the eye about 110 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba and about 180 miles ESE of Cancun. The motion continues to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will be passing through the Yucatan Channel sometime today, though any deviation in either direction will result in a landfall on either the Yucatan, or in Cuba. A turn is then expected to the NW, bringing the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h, making Ivan a category five hurricane. The pressure is 913mb. Some further intensification is expected during the next day or so and Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

STATEMENT AS OF 12:30 P.M. EDT 9/13/2004

NWHHC now recommends a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for all of Cuba west of 84.5W. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions. Also, NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings for the Cayman Islands.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. EDT 9/12/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #69

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is moving toward the northwest right into the Yucatan Channel. Hurricane force winds are expected for both Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula; however, any deviation to the west will bring the eye over the Cancun area and any deviation to the east will bring the eye over western Cuba. Storm preparations in these areas should have already been completed by now in Cuba and should be completed as soon as possible in the Yucatan as conditions have already started to deteriorate in Cuba and will do so soon on the Yucatan.

Hurricane Ivan moved just south of Grand Cayman Island and Jamaica and produced widespread damage over both of these islands.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to Merida, as well as all of Cuba west of 82W. A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to the Belize/Mexico Border. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 20.9N and 84.7W. This places the eye about 50 miles S of the western tip of Cuba and about 160 miles E of Cancun. The motion has become a bit more to the NW near 10 m.p.h. On this track, Ivan will be passing through the Yucatan Channel sometime today. A turn is then expected to the NW, bringing the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h, making Ivan a category five hurricane. The pressure is 914mb. Some further intensification is expected during the next day or so and Ivan is expected to remain as a major hurricane until landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

5 P.M. EDT 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #70

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If you are in western Cuba, you should not be reading this update. The eye wall is about to move over the area and you should be in a fortified shelter. This is one of the most dangerous situations ever to face Cuba.

The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is almost over Cuba. Winds well over 100 m.p.h. are likely occurring and winds will soon increase to over 150 m.p.h. as the eye wall moves over the island. Tidal surges are expected to reach up to 20 feet. Hurricane force winds are also expected to occur over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Comply with any evacuation orders that may be issued.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for all of Cuba west of 84.5W. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Warning for the remainder of Cuba west of 82W, and for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to Merida. The Hurricane Watch south of Cozemul is no longer recommended. A Hurricane Watch will be recommended for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast at 11 P.M. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 21.2N and 84.8W. This places the eye about 40 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and about 125 miles east of Cancun. The motion is to the NW near 8 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will be passing near the western tip of Cuba within the next few hours, though the eye wall will move onshore long before then. The NW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast somewhere from Florida to Louisiana.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 912mb. There is some chance for some additional intensification before the eye affects Cuba. Also, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain as a dangerous major hurricane until it makes final landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #71

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The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is over Cuba. Wind gusts in excess of 200 m.p.h. are likely occurring, as well as tidal surges over 20 feet. Complete destruction is likely occurring.

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any evacuation orders that may be issued.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 21.5N and 85.1W. This places the eye about 15 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and about 100 miles east of Cancun. The motion is to the NW near 8 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will be passing near the western tip of Cuba within the next few hours, though the eye wall will move onshore long before then. The NW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast somewhere from Florida to Louisiana.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 914mb. There is some chance for some additional intensification this evening. Also, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain as a dangerous major hurricane until it makes final landfall in the United States.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #71

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The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is over Cuba. Wind gusts in excess of 200 m.p.h. are likely occurring, as well as tidal surges over 20 feet. Complete destruction is likely occurring.

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any evacuation orders that may be issued.

NWHHC continues to recommend a SUPER HURRICANE WARNING for all of Cuba west of 84.5W. This is basically a Hurricane Warning for category five conditions. NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Warning for the remainder of Cuba west of 82W, and for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozemul to Merida. The Hurricane Watch south of Cozemul is no longer recommended. A Hurricane Watch is now recommended from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City, Florida. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 21.7N and 85.2W. This places the eye near the western tip of Cuba and about 90 miles east of Cancun. The motion is to the NNW near 9 m.p.h. The NW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast in the vicinty of the Florida panhandle.

Next Update: 2 A.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

5 A.M. EDT 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #72

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The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is moving away from Cuba and is now into the Gulf of Mexico, taking aim on the northern Gulf coast, somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Landfall is expected either very late tomorrow moght or early Thursday.

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any evacuation orders that may be issued.

NWHHC no longer recommends a Super Hurricane Warning for Cuba but does recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 83W. The warning east of 83W is no longer recommended. The Hurricane Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula is no longer recommended. A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City, Florida. This may be extended westward somewhat later today. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 22.6N and 86.0W. This places the eye about 575 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NW near 9 m.p.h. The NW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast in the vicinty of the Florida panhandle.

Maximum winds remain near 160 m.p.h. The pressure is 924mb. Slow weakening is expected until it makes final landfall in the United States. However, Hurricane Ivan has the potential to make landfall as a very dangerous category four hurricane, capable of producing severe damage

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 A.M. EDT 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #73

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The eye wall of Hurricane Ivan is moving away from Cuba and toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected sometime tomorrow evening or very early Thursday somewhere between western Louisiana and western Florida.

Conditions continue to improve in Cuba and will continue to do so throughout the day as Ivan moves farther away

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any evacuation orders that may be issued. Failure to do so may place your lives in danger.

NWHHC continues to recommend a HurricaneWARNING for all of Cuba west of 83W A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City, Florida. A Hurricane WARNING will be recommended for a portion or all of this area at 11 A.M. and the watch may be extended westward somewhat later today. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 23.1N and 86.1W. This places the eye about 450 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 9 m.p.h. The NNW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast in the vicinty of the Florida panhandle.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 155 m.p.h. The pressure is 925mb. Slow weakening is expected until it makes final landfall in the United States. However, Hurricane Ivan has the potential to make landfall as a very dangerous category four hurricane, capable of producing severe damage

Next Update: 11 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 A.M. EDT 9/14/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #74

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Hurricane Ivan is moving toward the the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected between Mississippi and western Florida sometime late tomorrow or early Thursday.

Conditions continue to improve in Cuba and will continue to do so throughout the day as Ivan moves farther away

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any orders that may be given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to do so may place your lives in danger.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING from the Mississippi/Louisiana Border to Panama City Florida and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 83W. A Hurricane Watch is now recommended from the Mississippi/Louisiana Border to Morgan City. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 23.3N and 86.3W. This places the eye about 430 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 9 m.p.h. The NNW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 932mb. Slow weakening is expected until it makes final landfall in the United States. However, Hurricane Ivan has the potential to make landfall as a very dangerous category three or four hurricane, capable of producing severe damage.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

2 P.M. EDT 9/14/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #75

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Hurricane Ivan continues to move toward the the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected between Mississippi and western Florida sometime late tomorrow or early Thursday.

Conditions continue to improve in Cuba and will continue to do so throughout the day as Ivan moves farther away

Hurricane Ivan is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Comply with any orders that may be given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to do so may place your lives in danger.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 23.8N and 86.5W. This places the eye about 400 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 9 m.p.h. The NNW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast.

Maximum winds have remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 931mb. Slow weakening is expected until it makes final landfall in the United States. However, Hurricane Ivan has the potential to make landfall as a very dangerous category three or four hurricane, capable of producing severe damage.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 P.M. EDT 9/14/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #76

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Hurricane Ivan continues to move toward the the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is expected between Louisiana and western Florida sometime late tomorrow or early Thursday.as a strong category three or a category four hurricane. All storm preparations need to be completed before tomorrow morning when conditions will start to rapidly deteriorate.

Wind gusts may exceed 160 m.p.h. in the landfall zone and tidal surges may exceed 15 feet.

Comply with any orders that may be given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to do so may place your lives in danger.

NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane WARNING from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City Florida and continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of Cuba west of 83W. A Hurricane Watch is now recommended from Grand Isle to Morgan City. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 24.2N and 86.6W. This places the eye about 370 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 10 m.p.h. The NNW track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north and northeast before making a final landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf coast.

Maximum winds have remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 929mb. While some weakening is expected before landfall, Hurricane Ivan is expected to remain either a strong category three or a category four hurricane until landfall. A storm of this intensity is capable of extreme damage.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. EDT 9/14/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #77

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast. All storm preparations for a catastrophic hurricane need to be completed by tomorrow morning as conditions will begin to deteriorate not long afterwards.

Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye.

Hurricane Ivan has the potential to be significantly more intense than were Hurricanes Lili, Georges, Opal, Andrew, Elena, Frederic, Eloise, and Betsy, all historic hurricanes to have made landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane Ivan could be similar to Hurricane Audrey, a very strong category four hurricane, when it reaches land.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City Florida. This may be extended eastward due to potential tidal conditions, later this evening. A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended from Grand Isle to Morgan City. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 24.6N and 87.0W. This places the eye about 330 miles to the SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 12 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north just before landfall.

Maximum winds remain near 145 m.p.h. The pressure is 929mb. Fluctuations in intensity are possible before the eye makes landfall; however, it is becoming more and more likely that Ivan will make landfall as a very dangerous category four hurricane, capable of producing severe damage to a wide area.

Next Update: 11 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

11 P.M. EDT 9/14/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #78

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Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 25.1N and 87.2W. This places the eye about 295 miles to the SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 12 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north just before landfall. The current forecast track indicates a landfall between New Orleans and Mobile. However, the slightest of wobbles to the west results in a New Orleans landfall and the slightest of eastward wobbles results in a landfall in Mobile. Even if the forecast track verifies, severe hurricane conditions will occur in both cities.

Flight level winds from the recon aircraft suggest that maximum winds have increased to near 150 m.p.h. The pressure is 930mb. Fluctuations in intensity are possible before the eye makes landfall; however, it is becoming more and more likely that Ivan will make landfall as a very dangerous category four or five hurricane, capable of producing severe damage to a wide area.

Next Update: 5 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. EDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #79

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast, aslightly fater than expected. Landfall is now expected in Mississippi or Alabama later tonight, or very early tomorrow morning, though the first band is about to move onshore. All storm preparations should have been completed by this time.

Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 26.1N and 87.8W. This places the eye about 220 miles to the SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the NNW near 12 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, with a turn more to the north just before landfall. The current forecast track indicates a landfall between New Orleans and Mobile. However, the slightest of wobbles to the west results in a New Orleans landfall and the slightest of eastward wobbles results in a landfall in Mobile. Even if the forecast track verifies, severe hurricane conditions will occur in both cities.

Maximum winds have droppsed back to 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 938mb. Fluctuations in intensity are possible before the eye makes landfall; however, it is becoming more and more likely that Ivan will make landfall as a very dangerous category four or five hurricane, capable of producing severe damage to a wide area.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

10 A.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #81

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is nearing the coastline. Conditions have started to deteriorate and will continue to do so throughout the day and the hurricane moves closer.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 27.4N and 88.1W. This places the eye about 200 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the NNW near 13 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will move onshore late this evening or very early tomorrow morning near the Mobile area.

Maximum winds remain near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 939mb. Little change in intensity is expected before the eye moves onshore. Hurricane Ivan is expected to be a powerful category four hurricane, which is capable of producing extensive damage.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

1 P.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #82

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is nearing the coastline. Conditions have started to deteriorate and will continue to do so throughout the day and the hurricane moves closer.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 27.8N and 88.2W. This places the eye about 135 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the NNW near 13 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will move onshore late this evening or very early tomorrow morning near the Mobile area.

Next Update: 5 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi

4 P.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #83

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Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is nearing the coastline. Hurricane conditions are occurring along the mouth of the Mississippi River and tropical storm conditions are occurring in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. In addition, the tide is already starting to breach the coastline.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Wind gusts may reach up to 170 m.p.h. and tidal surges may reach 20 feet near where the eye makes landfall, with very high tidal surges well to the east of the eye. This is expected to cause the complete devastation of the coastline from Biloxi, Mississippi all the way to Panama City.

Hurricane Ivan is much more intense than were Hurricanes Lili, Georges, Opal, Andrew, Elena, Frederic, Eloise, and Betsy, all historic hurricanes to have made landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane Ivan is expected to be similar to Hurricane Audrey, a very strong category four hurricane, when it reaches land.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 28.4N and 88.3W. This places the eye about 125 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 14 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will move onshore late this evening or very early tomorrow morning near the Mobile area.

Maximum winds remain near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 933mb. Little change in intensity is expected before the eye moves onshore. Hurricane Ivan is expected to be a powerful category four hurricane, which is capable of producing extensive damage.

Next Update: 6 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

6 P.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #84

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IF YOU ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN BILOXI AND PANAMA CITY, YOU SHOULD NOT BE READING THIS UPDATE. INSTEAD YOU SHOULD BE IN A SAFE ROOM

The main rain shield is spreading inland at the present time. Winds have been gusting over 60 m.p.h. along the northern Gulf coast, with tidal surges already running at about two feet. Hurricane conditions are occurring at the Mississippi River Delta region and there are reports that Lake Pontchartrain has started flooding its southern shore. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread inland very soon.

A widespread tornado outbreak is underway in Florida and Georgia in association with the rainbands. There have been reports of fatalities already. Tornadoes are expected with this storm.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City Florida and has now been extended eastward to Cedar Key. A Hurricane Watch continues to be recommended from Grand Isle to Morgan City. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials. In addition, there are numerous severe weather and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click Here to access a local National Weather Service office for more information regarding these threats in your area.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 28.8N and 88.2W. This places the eye about 100 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 14 m.p.h. On this track, the eye will move onshore late this evening or very early tomorrow morning near the Mobile area.

Maximum winds remain near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 931mb. Satellite imagery suggests that Ivan is intensifying and some increase is possible before landfall; however, Hurricane Ivan is expected to be a powerful category four hurricane, which is capable of producing extensive damage.

Next Update: 8 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

8 P.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #88

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IF YOU ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN BILOXI AND PANAMA CITY, YOU SHOULD NOT BE READING THIS UPDATE. INSTEAD YOU SHOULD BE IN A SAFE ROOM

Wind gusts over 90 m.p.h. are occurring near the mouth of the Mississippi River and gusts well over 60 m.p.h. are occurring along the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida coasts. Conditions are starting to rapidly deteriorate and will continue to do so until the arrival of the eye wall, which is expected in 3-4 hours.

A widespread tornado outbreak is underway in Florida and Georgia in association with the rainbands. There have been reports of fatalities already. Tornadoes are expected with this storm.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 29.0N and 88.2W. This places the eye about 80 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 14 m.p.h. There is a chance of a slight eastward motion developing, which would spare Mobile a direct hit, though would result in worse conditions for the Pensacola area.

Next Update: 10 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

10 P.M. CDT 9/15/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #89

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IF YOU ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN BILOXI AND PANAMA CITY, YOU SHOULD NOT BE READING THIS UPDATE. INSTEAD YOU SHOULD BE IN A SAFE ROOM

Wind are gusting to near hurricane force along the northern Gulf coast. Conditions will deteriorate significantly during the next couple of hours as a very intense rainband is located just offshore. In addition, tidal surges are rushing well inland at the present time.

A widespread tornado outbreak is underway in Florida and Georgia in association with the rainbands. There have been reports of fatalities already. Tornadoes are expected with this storm.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 29.3N and 88.1W. This places the eye about 55 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 11 m.p.h. There is a chance of a slight eastward motion developing, which would spare Mobile a direct hit, though would result in worse conditions for the Pensacola area.

Maximum winds remain near 140 m.p.h. The pressure is 933mb. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall and Ivan should move onshore as a category four hurricane.

Next Update: 12 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

12 A.M. CDT 9/16/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #90

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IF YOU ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN BILOXI AND PANAMA CITY, YOU SHOULD NOT BE READING THIS UPDATE. INSTEAD YOU SHOULD BE IN A SAFE ROOM

Hurricane conditions are being experienced along the northern Gulf coast. Winds are gusting over 100 m.p.h. on Dauphin Island. The Gulf of Mexico is surging well inland as far to the east of Panama City. Conditions become significantly worse in the next few minutes as the eye wall is just a few miles offshore.

A widespread tornado outbreak is underway in Florida and Georgia in association with the rainbands. There have been reports of fatalities already. Tornadoes are expected with this storm.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Hurricane Ivan is much more intense than were Hurricanes Lili, Georges, Opal, Andrew, Elena, Frederic, Eloise, and Betsy, all historic hurricanes to have made landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane Ivan is similar to Hurricane Audrey, a very strong category four hurricane, when it reaches land.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Panama City Florida and has now been extended eastward to Cedar Key. The Hurricane Watch west of Grand Isle is no longer recommended. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials. In addition, there are numerous severe weather and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click Here to access a local National Weather Service office for more information regarding these threats in your area.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 29.7N and 87.9W. This places the eye about 25 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 12 m.p.h. The eye should come in just east of Mobile, but Mobile will experience the eye wall.

Maximum winds are near 135 m.p.h. The pressure is 936mb. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall and Ivan should move onshore as a category four hurricane.

Next Update: 2 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

1 A.M. CDT 9/16/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #91

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IF YOU ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN BILOXI AND PANAMA CITY, YOU SHOULD NOT BE READING THIS UPDATE. INSTEAD YOU SHOULD BE IN A SAFE ROOM

The eye of Hurricane Ivan is now moving on shore near Gulf Shores, Alabama. The eye wall extends from Mobile to just west of Pensacola. Winds are likely gusting well over 150 m.p.h. In addition, tidal surges are rushing hundreds of yards inland at the present time.

A widespread tornado outbreak is underway in Florida and Georgia in association with the rainbands. There have been reports of fatalities already. Tornadoes are expected with this storm.

On the current forecast track, the landfall is expected to be near Mobile. However, the eye is large; thus, a large stretch of the coastline will experience the eye.

Hurricane Ivan is much more intense than were Hurricanes Lili, Georges, Opal, Andrew, Elena, Frederic, Eloise, and Betsy, all historic hurricanes to have made landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane Ivan is similar to Hurricane Audrey, a very strong category four hurricane, when it reaches land.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials, including evacuation orders. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 30.0N and 87.8W. This places the eye over Gulf Shores, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 12 m.p.h. The eye should come in just east of Mobile, but Mobile will experience the eye wall.

Maximum winds are near 135 m.p.h. The pressure is 939mb. Rapid weakening is now expected since the eye is moving inland. However, hurricane conditions are expected to spread 50-75 miles inland.

Next Update: 6 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

10 A.M. CDT 9/16/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #93

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Ivan has weakened to a tropical storm as it moves farther inland. However, strong winds and flooding rains remain possible

Tornadoes may occur along the path of Ivan.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials. Failure to comply with these orders may result in the loss of your life.

It must be stated that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Hurricane Ivan is a very large hurricane and the effects of Ivan extend well away from the eye.

NWHHC no longer recommends any watches or warnings. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials. In addition, there are numerous severe weather and flood watches and warnings in effect. Click Here to access a local National Weather Service office for more information regarding these threats in your area.

Currently, the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is located near 32.1N and 87.7W. This places the eye about 40 miles WSW of Montgomery, Alabama. The motion is to the north near 12 m.p.h. A slowing is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum winds have decreased to near 65 m.p.h. The pressure is estimated to be 980mb. Continued weakening is expected since the system is inland.

This is the final update on Ivan.

Forecaster: Ortt

7 P.M. CDT 9/22/2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN UPDATE #94

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Ivan has regenerated in the Gulf of Mexico, after making a large loop that took the storm into Alabama, through the Appalachians, down the coast, and across Florida. However, Ivan is not near the intensity that it once was.

A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be recommended for a portion of the Gulf Coast tomorrow. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official Watches and Warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Depression Ivan is located near 27.1N and 89.4W. This places the center about 135 miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the WNW near 14 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm inland into Louisiana or Texas either late tomorrow or early on Friday.

Maximum winds are near 35 m.p.h. The pressure is 1008mb. Some additional increase in intensity is expected before landfall and Ivan is expected to make landfall again on the Gulf Coast, this time as a tropical storm.

Next Update: 10 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

10 P.M. CDT 9/22/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #95

This is an independent product

Ivan becomes a tropical storm once again.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 27.1N and 89.9W. This places the center about 155 miles SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The motion is to the WNW near 14 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm inland into Louisiana or Texas either late tomorrow or early on Friday.

Maximum winds are near 40 m.p.h. The pressure is 1007mb. Little change in intensity is expected prior to landfall. The greatest threat from Ivan this time will not be the tidal surge or the winds, but instead the rainfall flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Next Update: 4 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

5 A.M. CDT 9/23/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #96

This is an independent product

Ivan moves toward the Gulf Coast

NWHHC now recommends a Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron, Louisiana to Gavleston, Texas. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official Watches and Warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 28.2N and 91.6W. This places the center about 180 miles SE of the Upper Texas Coast. The motion is to the WNW near 14 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm inland into Louisiana or Texas either late today or early on Friday.

Next Update: 10 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

4 P.M. CDT 9/23/2004 TROPICAL STORM IVAN UPDATE #98

This is an independent product

Ivan weakens back to a minimal tropical storm just before landfall

NWHHC continues to recommend a Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron, Louisiana to Gavleston, Texas. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official Watches and Warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Currently, the center of Tropical Storm Ivan is located near 29.4N and 93.0W. This places the center about 65 miles ESE of Port Arthur, Texas. The motion is to the WNW near 10 m.p.h. This general track is expected to continue, bringing the storm inland into Louisiana or Texas either late today or early on Friday.

Maximum winds are near 45 m.p.h. The pressure is 1003mb. Little change in intensity is expected prior to landfall. The greatest threat from Ivan this time will not be the tidal surge or the winds, but instead the rainfall flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Next Update: 10 P.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

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